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The Port Jefferson Hill Climb has been postponed to Sept. 30. File photo by Julianne Mosher/TBR News Media 2021

By Heidi Sutton

Meteorologists continue to track a tropical storm that will strike the East Coast on Saturday, unleashing a weekend washout with the potential for flooding rain, strong winds, storm surge and dangerous seas for Long Island. The blustery conditions will continue even after the heaviest of the rain departs late Saturday. Frequent gusts of 20 to 30-plus mph will continue all the way through Sunday night.

With the bad weather come cancellations and postponements for local events on the North Shore. Here are most recent updates:

Saturday Sept. 23

Great Cow Harbor Weekend – This event is still on.

Village of Northport’s annual Great Cow Harbor Weekend kicks off today at 8:30 a.m. with a 10K race followed by a concert and lighted boat display at Northport Village Park at 8 p.m. The festivities continue on Sept. 24 from 11 a.m. to 5 p.m. Main Street is closed to cars as visitors enjoy rides, games, food, music, arts and craft vendors, sidewalk sales and a parade at noon. 631-261-7502, www.cowharbor.org

Harbor Jazz Festival – This event will be moved inside The Jazz Loft in the case of rain.

Jazz lovers are invited to attend the 8th annual Harbor Jazz Festival at The Jazz Loft, 275 Christian Ave., Stony Brook tonight through Sept. 23. Each day brings a line-up of jazz greats, including some of the top internationally and nationally recognized talents. All events on Sept. 23 are free and take place on the front lawn of the Jazz Loft and on the Stony Brook Village Green. 631-751-1895, www.thejazzloft.org

Fall Yard Sale – This event has been postponed to Sept. 30 with a rain date of Oct. 1.

Join the Yaphank Historical Society for its annual Fall Yard sale from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. on the grounds of the Hawkins House, 4 Yaphank Avenue, Yaphank. Featuring a large variety of crafts, collectibles, and household items. Rain date is Sept. 24. 631-924-4803, www.yaphankhistorical.org.

Port Jefferson Hill Climb  – This event has been postponed to Sept. 30.

The Port Jefferson Conservancy will host a re-enactment of the 1910 Hill Climb from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. Come cheer on antique cars as they  retrace the original Hill Climb course from the Port Jefferson Village Center, 101-A E. Broadway, Port Jefferson to the top of East Broadway followed by a car parade through the village. Gates open at 8 a.m. Rain date is Sept. 30. 631-238-2290, portjeff.com

Brookhaven Country Fair – This event has been canceled due to the weather forecast.

The Town of Brookhaven’s Country Fair returns to the historic Longwood Estate located on Longwood Road and Smith Road in Ridge today and Sept. 24 from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. Enjoy traditional crafts, vendors, colonial cooking, Revolutionary War and Civil War re-enactments, music by the Ed Travers Band, pet shows, vintage apron show, house tours, and children’s activities. Leashed dogs permitted. Held rain or shine. Admission is $5, children 12 and under free. 631-924-1820, www.brookhavenny.gov

Community Wide Yard Sale – This event has been postponed to Sept. 30.

Sound Beach Civic Association hosts its 3rd annual Community Wide Yard Sale as well as the second yearly coat drive at the Adopt-A-Spot, 30 New York Ave., Sound Beach from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. Over a dozen households are participating. Stop by to find a hidden treasure and share the warmth with those less fortunate. The Sound Beach Fire Dept. will bring an engine/ambulance and set up a recruitment table as well as have raffle tickets and challenge coins you can buy. Rain date is Sept. 30. 631-744-6952.

Library Craft Fair – This event has been moved indoors to Community Rooms A & B on the lower level.

Sachem Public Library, 150 Holbrook Road, Holbrook will hold a craft fair from 10:30 a.m. to 2:30 p.m. Stop by and peruse handmade crafts and specialty items. 631-588-5024

Gallery North Outdoor Art Show – This event will be held rain or shine.

Gallery North, 90 North Country Road, Setauket presents its 57th annual Outdoor Art Show & Music Festival today and Sept. 24 from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. Featuring some of the finest art and craft from regional artists and artisans, the event will also include live musical performances, kids activities, as well as delicious food vendors. Awards are granted for best in show for each category, including crafts, fiber art, glass art, jewelry, painting, photography, pottery, printmaking, and more. Free admission. 631-751-2676,  www.gallerynorth.org

Happy Harbor Day  – This event has been postponed to Sept. 30.

The Village of Nissequogue and The Friends of Stony Brook Harbor will host Happy Harbor Day to raise awareness of Stony Brook Harbor from 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. at 555 Long Beach in Nissequogue. The day will include presentations by environmental and marine science experts, an aquarium touch tank, carnival games, music, art contest and more. Free admission. 631-862-7400

CommUniversity Day – This event has been postponed to a later date.

Enjoy a festival of fun and discovery for all ages at Stony Brook University’s annual CommUniversity Day at the Academic Mall from noon to 4 p.m. with health screenings, Teddy Bear Clinic, fun crafts, duck race, food court, community art projects, giveaways and much more. Free admission. Held rain or shine. www.stonybrook.edu/CommUniversity

Draw Out! Arts Festival – This event will be moved indoors in case of rain. 

Join the Heckscher Museum of Art, 2 Prime Ave., Huntington for its annual Draw Out! Community Arts Festival, a day of creativity, art, music, and family fun for all ages, from noon to 5 p.m. Enjoy watercolor painting in scenic Heckscher Park, create a collage and sketch from a live model, enjoy live music on the terrace by Jason Dorsa and traditional songs and dances by the boys & Girls Club of the Shinnecock  Nation and take part in a docent-led tour of the museum’s latest exhibits. Free. No reservations required. 631-380-3230, www.heckscher.org

BEE Amazing! event – This event has been canceled.

Starflower Experiences presents BEE Amazing!, a celebration of bees at Manor Farm, 210 Manor Road, Huntington from 1 to 5 p.m. Learn about bees and native plants and help plant a pollinator garden with games, crafts, vendors and a costume contest. $5 per person. Rain date is Sept. 24. 631-213-1927

Sunday Sept. 24

Great Cow Harbor Weekend – This event is still on.

See Sept. 23 listing.

Brookhaven Country Fair – This event is canceled.

See Sept. 23 listing.

Gallery North Outdoor Art Show – This event will be held rain or shine.

See Sept. 23 listing.

Lions Club Car Show – Postponed to Oct. 1

The Port Jefferson Lions Club invites the community to its 2nd annual judged Car Show at Brookhaven Town Hall, 1 Independence Hill, Farmingville from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. Presented by The Fabulous 50s & 60s Nostalgia Car Club, the event will feature food, music, raffles and vendors with over 14 trophy classes plus  a special people’s choice trophy decided by YOUR vote. Proceeds will sponsor a guide dog for the blind. Rain date is Oct. 1. 631-680-7212

Heritage Country Fair – Postponed to October 8

The Smithtown Historical Society, 211 E. Main St., Smithtown will hold its annual Heritage Country Fair from noon to 4 p.m. with Island Long Riders Cowboy Mounted Shooting displays, petting zoo and pony rides, live music, historical reenactions, blacksmithing, spinning and other demonstrations, a vendor market, touch a truck and so much more. Tickets are $5 per person. Held rain or shine. 631-265-6768.

See more calendar events here.

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Pixabay photo

United States defense and intelligence leaders agree that climate change is a threat to U.S. national security and is affecting global stability, military readiness, humanitarian crises, and the risk of war.

Scott Mandia. Photo by Victoria Sinacori

As part of Suffolk County Community College’s Faculty Talks series, nationally recognized climate change authority and twice featured National Geographic documentary expert, Suffolk County Community College Professor of Physical Sciences Scott Mandia will speak about Climate Change & National Security Implications on Monday, September 18 at Suffolk County Community College, Kreiling Hall Room 203, 533 College Road, Selden at 11:15 a.m. (Parking lot by water tower)

Mandia, the founder of the Climate Science Rapid Response Team that matches journalists with scientists to enable the media to better explain climate change and meteorological phenomenon will cover a range of topics including:

  • Evidence of a warming planet
  • Scientific evidence of the human cause
  • Who’s emitting the most greenhouse gases?
  • Who’s impacted the most? The poorest among us.
  • Super Storm Sandy
  • The World’s regions most impacted by climate change and implications
  • Solutions and taking action

Mandia has been called upon by The White House to present research about the impact of large-scale climate change on severe thunderstorms and tornadoes after a EF5 multiple-vortex tornado struck Joplin, Missouri on May 22, 2011. The tornado killed 158, injured 1,150 and caused $2.8 billion in damages – the costliest single tornado in US history. In addition to climate change, Mandia has written about Long Island hurricanes including the New England Hurricane of 1938, known locally as the “Long Island Express” and the future vulnerability of Long Island to hurricanes. He co-authored a book with Hunt Janin titled: Rising Sea Levels that was released before Hurricane Sandy hit Long Island and warned about the devastating effects of such a storm on New York.

 

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Pixabay photo

National Preparedness Month is a chance for families to think about what to do in an emergency

With hurricane season entering peak activity, PSEG Long Island marks National Preparedness Month by reminding customers to prepare ahead of time for disasters and emergencies.

“Natural disasters and other emergencies can disrupt access to goods and services that underpin our day-to-day lives,” said David Lyons, interim president and COO of PSEG Long Island. “The safety of our employees, customers and contractors has always been PSEG Long Island’s top priority, and we partner with groups like the United Way to help spread the word. Taking the time to prepare and having a plan limits the negative impact an emergency has on your household.”

PSEG Long Island’s ongoing system improvements and enhancements to the grid help provide electric reliability to Long Island and the Rockaways throughout the year.

PSEG Long Island also continues to incorporate enhancements and upgrades to its systems and its storm processes, including its contingency procedures.

Here’s how customers can prepare for a severe storm and other emergencies:

  • Ensure you have a battery-powered radio and fresh batteries.
  • Check your supply of flashlights, blankets, nonperishable food and bottled water.
  • Create an emergency communications plan.
  • Develop an evacuation plan.
  • Charge your cell phones, tablets and other mobile devices.
  • Make sure to have cash available. Banks may be closed or inaccessible after a storm.
  • Fill up your vehicle’s fuel tank.
  • Bring in unsecured objects and furniture from patios and balconies.
  • Compile a list of emergency phone numbers, including PSEG Long Island’s 24-hour Electric Service number: 1-800-490-0075.
  • Discuss storm and lightning safety with your family. Visit https://www.psegliny.com/safetyandreliability/stormsafety for safety tips, YouTube safety videos and more.
  • Follow PSEG Long Island on Facebook and Twitter for updates before, during and after the storm.
  • Be aware that downed wires should always be considered “live.” Do not approach or drive over a downed line, and do not touch anything it might be in contact with. If a wire falls on or near your car, stay inside the car, call 911 and do not get out until PSEG Long Island de-energizes the line. If you MUST exit the vehicle because it is on fire, jump as far as possible away from the vehicle, with both feet landing on the ground at the same time, and hop or shuffle away.

Critical Care Program

PSEG Long Island understands the critical need for power when life-support equipment is in use. While it is the customer’s responsibility to plan ahead to meet their medical needs if the power goes out, eligible customers can receive enhanced notifications by enrolling in the Critical Care Program. When there is severe weather, PSEG Long Island will stay in touch with these customers and make every effort to restore power as soon as possible. However, there may be circumstances when timely restoration is difficult, particularly in the case of a severe storm, and participation in the Critical Care Program does not guarantee priority power restoration.

Customers can visit https://www.psegliny.com/myaccount/customersupport/customerassistanceprograms/criticalcareprogram to learn more.

Stay connected:

  • Download the PSEG Long Island mobile app to report outages and receive information on restoration times, crew locations and more.
  • To report an outage and receive status updates via text, text OUT to PSEGLI (773454) or visit us online at www.psegliny.com/outages.
  • To report an outage or downed wire call PSEG Long Island’s 24-hour Electric Service number: 800-490-0075.
  • Follow PSEG Long Island on Facebook and Twitter to report an outage and for updates before, during and after a storm.
  • Visit PSEG Long Island’s outage information across Long Island and the Rockaways online at https://mypowermap.psegliny.com.

For more information about planning for emergencies, visit https://bereadyli.org.

For more information about National Preparedness Month, visit https://www.ready.gov/september.

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Photo by Elisa Hendrey

SETTING SUN

Moments after Elisa Hendrey of Sound Beach snapped this sunset during a recent visit to Mount Sinai Harbor, the weather suddenly turned violent.

She writes, “Wild wind gusts suddenly whipped across the water. Trees were swaying violently. I jumped in my car and took off for home, keeping an eye out for falling branches. Fortunately, there weren’t any, but my car was being pelted by twigs and at one point a gust of wind actually moved the car a bit. It was very strange listening to the wind and  the ping of whatever small parts of trees were continuously hitting the car. A perfectly calm sunset scene turned violent with no warning whatsoever. I guess there was a message in that cloud bank!”

Send your Photo of the Week to [email protected]

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From left, graduate students Thomas Reilly and Hanxiao Wu with Weisen Shen. Wu and Shen are holding two of the 183 sensors they will place in the Antarctic. The team is shipping the sensors in the black container, which will travel through Port Hueneme, California and New Zealand before reaching the South Pole. Photo by Maeve McCarthy/ Angela Gruo

By Daniel Dunaief

While it’s easy to see and study materials in valleys or on the tops of bare mountains, it’s much more difficult to know what’s beneath 2.7 kilometers of ice. Turns out, that kind of question is much more than academic or hypothetical.

At the South Pole, glaciers sit on top of land that never sees the light of day, but that is relevant for the future of cities like Manhattan and Boston.

The solid land beneath glaciers has a strong effect on the movement of the ice sheet, which can impact the melting rate of the ice and sea level change.

Weisen Shen, Assistant Professor in the Department of Geosciences at Stony Brook University, recently received over $625,000 over the course of five years from the National Science Foundation to study the unexplored land beneath the East Antarctic Ice Sheet at the South Pole.

The subglacial water and hydrosystems, together with geology such as sediment or hard rocks, affect the dynamics and contribute to the movement speed of the ice sheet.

Once Shen provides a better understanding of the material beneath the ice, including glacial water, he can follow that up with other researchers to interpret the implications of ice sheet dynamics.

“We can predict better what’s the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to the sea level change” which will offer modelers a way to gauge the likely impact of global warming in future decades, he said.

Using seismic data

Starting this November, Shen and graduate students Siyuan Sui, Thomas Reilly and Hanxiao Wu will venture for two months to the South Pole with seismic monitors.

By placing 183 seismic nodes and installing an additional eight broad-band seismic stations, Shen and his team will quantify the seismic properties and, eventually, use them to infer the composition, density and temperature structure of the crust and the uppermost mantle.

The temperature when they place these monitors will be 10 to 30 degrees below 0 degrees Fahrenheit. They will need to do some digging as they deploy these sensors near the surface.

While the South Pole is believed to be geologically stable, signs of sub-glacial melting suggest the crust may bear a higher concentration of highly radioactive elements such as uranium, thorium and potassium.

Those natural elements “produce heat all the time,” said Shen. 

The process and analysis of seismic waves works in the same way it would for the study of a prism. Looking at the refraction of light that enters and leaves the prism from various angles can help researchers differentiate light with different frequencies, revealing clues about the structure and composition of the prism.

Earth materials, meanwhile will also cause a differentiation in the speed of surface waves according to their frequencies. The differentiation in speeds is called “dispersion,” which Shen and his team will use to quantify the seismic properties. The area has enough natural waves that Shen won’t need to generate any man-made energy waves.

“We are carefully monitoring how fast [the seismic energy] travels” to determine the temperature, density and rock type, Shen said.

The water beneath the glacier can act like a slip ’n slide, making it easier for the glacier to move.

Some large lakes in Antarctica, such as Lake Vostok, have been mapped. The depth and contours of sub glacier lakes near the South Pole, however, are still unclear.

“We have to utilize a lot of different methods to study that,” said Shen.

The Stony Brook researcher will collaborate with colleagues to combine his seismic results with other types of data, such as radar, to cross examine the sub ice structures.

The work will involve three years of gathering field data and two years of analysis.

Educational component

In addition to gathering and analyzing data, Shen has added a significant educational component to the study. For the first time, he is bringing along Brentwood High School science teacher Dr. Rebecca Grella, A PhD graduate from Stony Brook University’s Ecology and Evolutionary Biology program, Grella will provide lectures and classes remotely from the field.

In addition to bringing a high school teacher, Shen will fund graduate students at Stony Brook who can help Brentwood students prepare for the Earth Science regents exam.

Shen is working with Kamazima Lwiza, Associate Professor in the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook, to bring Earth Science, including polar science, to schools in New York City and on Long Island with a bus equipped with mobile labs.

Lwiza, who is the Principal Investigator on the EarthBUS project, will work together with Shen to build a course module that includes a 45-minute lecture and exhibition.

Shen feels that the project will help him prepare to better educate students in graduate school, college, and K-12 in the community.

He feels a strong need to help K-12 students in particular with Earth Science.

As for students outside Brentwood, Shen said he has an open door policy in which the lab is receptive to high school and undergraduate students who would like to participate in his research all year long.

Once he collects the first batch of data from the upcoming trip to the South Pole, he will have to do considerable data processing, analysis and interpretation.

While Shen is looking forward to the upcoming field season, he knows he will miss time in his Stony Brook home with his wife Jiayi Xie, and his four-and-a-half year old son Luke and his 1.5 year old son Kai.

“It’s a huge burden for my wife,” Shen said, whose wife is working full time. When he returns, he “hopes to make it up to them.”

Shen believes, however, that the work he is doing is important in the bigger picture, including for his children.

Record high temperatures, which are occurring in the United States and elsewhere this summer, will “definitely have an impact on the dynamics of the ice sheet.” At the same time, the Antarctic ice sheet is at a record low.

“This is concerning and makes [it] more urgent to finish our work there,” he added.

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Left, Dr. Robert Schwaner, medical director of the Department of Emergency Medicine and chief of the Division of Toxicology at Stony Brook University Hospital. Right, Dr. Jennifer Goebel, emergency room doctor at Huntington Hospital. Left file photo from Stony Brook University; right from Northwell Health

With summer in full swing on Long Island, local doctors urge residents to stay hydrated and remain aware of the potential health effects from heat and sun, particularly for vulnerable age groups.

“We worry about our elderly population,” said Dr. Jennifer Goebel, emergency room doctor at Huntington Hospital. “They have a little less reserve and can become dehydrated very easily.”

Part of the challenge for the elderly population is that their efficiency in sweating isn’t as high as it was when they were younger, doctors added.

People with heart disease and/or diabetes can also be at risk as the heat index rises.

This summer has reached numerous temperature records around the country and the world. On Monday, a buoy in the Florida Keys measured a temperature of 101.1 degrees, breaking the previous world record for sea surface temperature set in Kuwait Bay in the Persian Gulf. 

Locally, in anticipation of a heat advisory for this Thursday, July 27, the Town of Huntington has opened several cooling centers, including at the Dix Hills Ice Rink and the Dix Hills Park Swimming Pool, as well as at the Elwood and Manor Field Spray Parks.

Amid high temperatures, doctors suggested residents make sure they drink enough water, particularly when active outdoors.

“Water is not light, but you should have enough access to as much water as you need,” said Dr. Robert Schwaner, medical director of the Department of Emergency Medicine and chief of the Division of Toxicology at Stony Brook University Hospital.

Before he attended medical school, Schwaner worked for a few years seal coating driveways. The heat helped the driveways but not the people working on them. Schwaner said he could go through several gallons of water each day.

Signs of heat exhaustion

People can display a variety of symptoms of heat exhaustion.

For starters, they can get headaches and nausea. That, Schwaner said, can be problematic, as both of those can also be signs of other problems.

“Those are the earliest things you start to feel,” Schwaner said. “If you don’t pay attention, it could be a slippery slope.”

People can also develop myalgia or pain in a muscle or group of muscles. Heat can also cause muscle cramping, aching and dizziness.

When body temperature exceeds 104 degrees, that person can also experience confusion or become unconscious.

“We advise any patient or bystander to call 911 for medical attention,” said Goebel.

Before medical help arrives, people can help by providing water or ice and removing equipment such as protective masks or chest protectors during sporting events.

“Small things can go a long way before medical attention” arrives, Goebel added.

People often develop problems with their thinking and central nervous systems when body temperatures climb in the heat.

When he was a fellow at Bellevue Hospital, Schwaner saw some fit athletes who were confused or aggressive come to the hospital. Sometimes, they couldn’t recognize friends and family members who brought them in for medical help.

Water wins

Doctors urged people to choose water when the temperature and heat index rise.

“People forget that water is always the best,” Goebel said. “We recommend that people stay away from coffee, tea and soda,” which can go through their systems rapidly.

Doctors particularly cautioned against consuming alcohol during extreme heat.

Adult beverages “already put people behind the eight-ball in terms of dehydration,” said Schwaner.

Weekend warriors

Adults who work all week sometimes race out on the weekends, hoping to recapture some of their previous athletic glory from their younger years.

These would-be athletic superstars, often described as “weekend warriors,” are more likely to suffer from torn hamstrings, rotator cuffs or anterior cruciate ligament damage than from heat-related injuries.

“Most weekend warriors can’t last long enough” running at top speed or racing around on a field to develop heat-related injuries, said Schwaner.

People can improve their heat resilience by doing aerobic exercise for 15 to 20 minutes twice or three times a week, Schwaner noted. “You can rev up the body’s ability to cool yourself,” he said.

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Suffolk County Water Authority Board Chair Charles Lefkowitz, at podium, urges residents to adjust their watering patterns. Photo by Raymond Janis

By Raymond Janis

[email protected]

Tucked away on 5th Avenue in Bay Shore, just south of Sunrise Highway, lies the heart of the Suffolk County Water Authority’s operations.

Data streams into this control center around the clock, funneling information from each of the water authority’s myriad wells and pumps from Melville to Montauk. Amid these summer months, that data indicates Suffolk residents are overloading the system through excessive water consumption.

SCWA officials held a press conference at this site Thursday, July 13, sending a singular message to Suffolk County residents: Conserve water.

“We’re pleading to the public at this point to conserve,” said Charles Lefkowitz, chair of the SCWA Board. “We need all the residents to participate in these conservation efforts.”

Lefkowitz attributes the problems with overpumping primarily to irresponsible irrigation practices. “It starts with the irrigation systems,” he said. “Lawns do not need to be watered every single day.”

Joe Pokorny, deputy CEO for operations at SCWA, indicated that county residents are pumping 500,000 gallons per minute during peak irrigation periods during this summer season. By contrast, peak levels are around 100,000 gallons per minute during non-irrigation months.

“This time of year, people are using about five times as much water during the peak as they would in the off period,” he said.

He added that if residents en masse do not begin to curtail their water consumption, they may begin to experience issues with water pressure. This phenomenon impacts those on the East End most markedly.

“When demand outstrips supply, our tank levels fall,” the deputy CEO noted. “When our tank levels fall, the pressures in our system go down. And if the pressure in your water system goes down, the people that are irrigating are not going to get much irrigation on their lawns at all.”

To counteract these challenges, SCWA is encouraging residents to adopt an odd-even watering pattern, that is, irrigating their lawns every other day. 

“This will theoretically divide up the water usage by half,” Pokorny indicated. “That will then allow more people to water during those periods … and they will have green lawns as a result.”

But the problems associated with overconsumption continue beyond the front lawn. With too much stress on the tanks and diminished water pressure, there could be public safety repercussions as well.

“If firefighters need to fight a fire and a water tank is low, that means there’s less water available for fighting fires,” he added.

Along with the odd-even irrigation schedule, Lefkowitz implored residents to avoid watering during the peak hours between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. The SCWA Board chair also announced that it has instituted up to $250 per year in “water credits” for residents who use rain sensors, irrigation timers, leak detection and compliant faucet heads.

To learn about SCWA’s water credits program, visit www.scwa.com.

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Ali Khosronejad in front of the Santa Maria Cathedral, which is considered the first modern cathedral in Madrid.

By Daniel Dunaief

An approaching weather front brings heavy rains and a storm surge, threatening to inundate homes and businesses with dangerous water and potentially undermining critical infrastructure like bridges.

Once officials figure out the amount of water that will affect an area, they can either send out inspectors to survey the exact damage or they can use models that take time to process and analyze the likely damage.

Ali Khosronejad

Ali Khosronejad, Associate Professor in the Department of Civil Engineering at Stony Brook University, hopes to use artificial intelligence to change that.

Khosronejad recently received $550,000 from the National Science Foundation (NSF) for four years to create a high-fidelity model using artificial intelligence that will predict the flood impact on infrastructure.

The funds, which will be available starting on June 20, will support two PhD students who will work to provide an artificial intelligence-based program that can work on a single laptop at a “fraction of the cost of more advanced modeling approaches,” Khosronejad said during an interview in Madrid, Spain, where he is on sabbatical leave under a Fulbright U.S Senior Scholar Award. He is doing his Fulbright research at Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.

Stony Brook University will also provide some funding for these students, which will help defray the cost of expenses related to traveling and attending conferences and publishing papers.

In the past, Stony Brook has been “quite generous when it comes to supporting graduate students working on federally funded projects,” Khosronejad explained and he hopes that continues with this research.

Khosronejad and his students will work with about 50 different flooding and terrain scenarios, which will cover about 95 percent of extreme flooding. These 50 possibilities will cover a range of waterways, infrastructure, topography, and coastal areas. The researchers will feed data into their high fidelity supercomputing cluster simulations to train artificial intelligence to assess the likely damage from a flood.

As they build the model, Khosronejad explained that they will collect data from floods, feed them into the computer and test how well the computer predicts the kind of flooding that has can cause damage or threaten the stability of structures like bridges. Over the next four years, the team will collect data from the Departments of Transportation in California, Minnesota and New York.

Nearly six years ago, his team attempted to use algorithms available in ChatGPT for some of his AI development. Those algorithms, however, didn’t predict flood flow prediction. He tried to develop new algorithms based on convolutional neural networks. Working with CNN, he attempted to improve its capabilities by including some physics-based constraints.

“We are very enthusiastic about this,” Khosronejad said. “We do think that this opportunity can help us to open up the use of AI for other applications in fluid mechanics” in fields such as renewable energy, contaminant transport predictions in urban areas and biological flow predictions, among others.

Planners working with groups such as the California Department of Transportation could use such a program to emphasize which infrastructure might be endangered.

This analysis could highlight effective mitigation strategies. Artificial intelligence can “provide [planners and strategists] with a tool that is not that expensive, can run on a single laptop, can reproduce lots of scenarios with flooding, to figure out which infrastructure is really in danger,” Khosronejad said.

Specifically, this tool could evaluate the impact of extreme floods on bridge foundations. Floods can remove soil from around the foundation of a bridge, which can cause it to collapse. Civil engineers can strengthen bridge foundations and mitigate the effect of future floods by using riprap, which is a layer of large stones.

This kind of program can reduce the reliance on surveying after a flood, which is expensive and sometimes “logistically impossible and unsafe” to monitor areas like the foundations of bridges, Khosronejad said. He plans to build into the AI program an awareness of the changing climate, so that predictions using it in three or five years can provide an accurate reflection of future conditions.

“Floods are getting more and more extreme” he said. “We realize that floods we feed into the program during training will be different” from the ones that will cause damage in subsequent years.

Floods that had a return period of every 100 years are now happening much more frequently. In one or two decades, such a flood might occur every 10 years.

Adding updated data can allow practitioners to make adjustments to the AI program a decade down the road, he suggested. He and his team will add data every year, which will create a more versatile model.

What it can’t do

While the AI programs will predict the damage to infrastructure from floods, they will not address storm or flood predictions.

“Those are different models, based on the movement of clouds” and other variables, Khosronejad said. “This doesn’t do that: if you give the program a range of flood magnitudes, it will tell you what will happen.”

High fidelity models currently exist that can do what Khosronejad is proposing, although those models require hundreds of CPUs to run for five months. Khosronejad has developed his own in house high fidelity model that is capable of making similar predictions. He has tested it to examine various infrastructures and used it to study various flooding events. These models are expensive, which is why he’s trying to replace them with AI to reduce the cost while maintaining fidelity.

AI, on the other hand, can run on a single CPU and may be able to provide the same result, which will allow people to plan ahead before it happens. The NSF approved the single principal investigator concept two months ago.

Khosronejad has worked with Fotis Sotiropoulos, former Dean of the College of Engineering and Applied Sciences at Stony Brook and current Provost at Virginia Commonwealth University, on this and other projects.

The two have bi-weekly discussions over the weekend to discuss various projects.

Sotiropoulos was “very happy” when Khosronejad told him he received the funds. Although he’s not a part of the project, Sotiropoulos will “provide inputs.”

Sotiropoulos has “deep insights” into fluid mechanics. “When you have him on your side, it always pays off,” Khosronejad said.

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Canadian wildfire smoke reduced the amount of sunlight reaching the ground over Long Island. Photo by Terry Ballard from Wikimedia Commons

Brian Colle saw it coming, but the word didn’t get out quickly enough to capture the extent of the incoming smoke.

Dr. Jeffrey Wheeler, director of the emergency room at St. Charles Hospital in Port Jefferson. File photo from St. Charles Hospital

The smoke from raging wildfires in Quebec, Canada, last week looked like a “blob out of a movie” coming down from the north, said Colle, head of the atmospheric sciences division at Stony Brook University’s School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences. As the morning progressed, Colle estimated the chance of the smoke arriving in New York and Long Island was “80 to 90 percent.”

Colle, among other scientists, saw the event unfolding and was disappointed at the speed with which the public learned information about the smoke, which contained particulate matter that could affect human health.

“There’s a false expectation in my personal view that social media is the savior in all this,” Colle said. The Stony Brook scientist urged developing a faster and more effective mechanism to create a more aggressive communication channel for air quality threats.

Scientists and doctors suggested smoke from wildfires, which could become more commonplace amid a warming climate, could create physical and mental health problems.

Physical risks

People in “some of the extremes of ages” are at risk when smoke filled with particulates enters an area, said Dr. Jeffrey Wheeler, director of the emergency room at St. Charles Hospital in Port Jefferson. People with cardiac conditions or chronic or advanced lung disease are “very much at risk.”

Dr. Robert Schwaner, medical director of the Department of Emergency Medicine and chief of the Division of Toxicology at Stony Brook University Hospital. Photo from Stony Brook University

Dr. Robert Schwaner, medical director of the Department of Emergency Medicine and chief of the Division of Toxicology at Stony Brook University Hospital, believed the health effects of wildfire smoke could “trickle down for about a week” after the smoke was so thick that it reduced the amount of sunlight reaching the ground.

Amid smoky conditions, people who take medicine for their heart or lungs need to be “very adherent to their medication regimen,” Schwaner said.

Physical symptoms that can crop up after such an event could include wheezing, coughing, chest tightness or breathing difficulties, particularly for people who struggle with asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

When patients come to Schwaner with these breathing problems, he asks them if what they are experiencing is “typical of previous exacerbations.” He follows up with questions about what has helped them in the past.

Schwaner is concerned about patients who have had lung damage from COVID-related illness.

The level of vulnerability of those patients, particularly amid future wildfires or air quality events, will “play out over the next couple of years,” he said. Should those who had lung damage from COVID develop symptoms, that population might “need to stay in contact with their physicians.”

It’s unclear whether vulnerabilities from COVID could cause problems for a few years or longer, doctors suggested, although it was worth monitoring to protect the population’s health amid threats from wildfire smoke.

Local doctors were also concerned about symptoms related to eye irritations.

Schwaner doesn’t believe HEPA filters or other air cleansing measures are necessary for the entire population.

People with chronic respiratory illness, however, would benefit from removing particulates from the air, he added.

Wildfire particulates

Dr. Mahdieh Danesh Yazdi, an air pollution expert and environmental epidemiologist from Stony Brook University’s Program in Public Health. Photo from Stony Brook University

Area physicians suggested the particulates from wildfires could be even more problematic than those generated from industrial sources.

Burning biomass releases a range of toxic species into the air, said Dr. Mahdieh Danesh Yazdi, an air pollution expert and environmental epidemiologist from Stony Brook University’s Program in Public Health.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has done a “fairly decent job” of regulating industrial pollution over the last few decades “whereas wildfires have been increasing” amid drier conditions, Yazdi added.

In her research, Yazdi studies the specific particulate matter and gaseous pollutants that constitute air pollution, looking at the rates of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in response to these pollutants.

Mental health effects

Local health care providers recognized that a sudden and lasting orange glow, which blocked the sun and brought an acrid and unpleasant smell of fire, can lead to anxiety, which patients likely dealt with in interactions with therapists.

As for activity in the hospital, Dr. Poonam Gill, director of the Comprehensive Psychiatric Emergency Program at Stony Brook Hospital, said smoke from the wildfires did not cause any change or increase in the inpatient psychiatric patient population.

In addition to the eerie scene, which some suggested appeared apocalyptic, people contended with canceled outdoor events and, for some, the return of masks they thought they had jettisoned at the end of the pandemic.

“We had masks leftover” from the pandemic, and “we made the decision” to use them for an event for his son, said Schwaner.

When Schwaner contracted the delta variant of COVID-19, he was coughing for three to four months, which encouraged him to err on the side of caution with potential exposure to smoke and the suspended particulates that could irritate his lungs.

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Pixabay photo

New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC), along with the State Department of Health (DOH) issued an Air Quality Health Advisory for Long Island on Thursday, June 8 as the smoke and haze from the Canadian wildfires continue to blanket the region. This air quality alert has been extended through this evening, June 8, until 11:59 p.m. and is potentially forecasted to continue into tomorrow as well.

The pollutant of concern is Fine Particulate Matter. Fine particulate matter consists of tiny solid particles or liquid droplets in the air made of many different types of particles. Exposure can cause short-term health effects such as irritation to the eyes, nose, and throat, coughing, sneezing, runny nose, and shortness of breath. Exposure to elevated levels of fine particulate matter can also worsen medical conditions such as asthma and heart disease. People with heart or breathing problems, and children and the elderly may be particularly sensitive to particle matter

What can you do to protect yourself?

  • Wear masks outside (Preferably a K95)
  • Limit outdoor exposure (Pets too)
  • Keep windows closed and use air purifiers
  • Consider rescheduling or canceling any outdoor activities
  • Continuously monitor the air quality
    Check the Air Quality in Your Area Here

 

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