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Michael French in front of a mobile radar antenna.

By Daniel Dunaief

Michael French

 

When he was in elementary school in Hamden, Connecticut, Michael French was several miles away from an event that would shape his life. A tornado touched down, causing extensive damage, knocking out power lines and injuring 40 people. The violent storm was traumatizing, causing him to hide in the closet during routine summer storms.

By the time French attended college at Cornell University, these powerful and potentially devastating storms had become an “interest and fascination,” he said, leading him to major in atmospheric sciences.

After graduating from college, he received an offer from Professor Howard Bluestein at the University of Oklahoma (OU) for a master’s program. A consultant for the movie Twister starring Helen Hunt and Bill Paxton, Bluestein was one of the first to put a weather radar on the back of a truck to collect data in severe storms and tornadoes. French also earned his PhD at OU.

These days, French, who is an Associate Professor in the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook University, spends parts of his time traveling to places in the southeast in trucks with unique and emerging instrumentation, typically Doppler weather radar, gathering data about severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

French has seen about 25 tornadoes. The closest he’s come to these violent storms is about a kilometer away, which occurred in 2004. When he’s conducting research, he is more concerned about lightning, which frequently occurs around thunderstorms that produce tornadoes.

When he’s collecting data, French has to get out of the truck to stow the antenna among other tasks. “Automatically, that means you’re in danger,” French said. “There’s nothing you can do about it, except try to minimize your time” outside. Two or three times when he was earning his PhD, lightning struck within a quarter of a mile of his location.

Better sampling

In his research, French described himself as a “pure observationalist.”

A main theme of his research is whether the nationwide network of fixed-site radar can be used by forecasters to predict whether a thunderstorm will produce a tornado and, if it does, how likely it is to be a significant or violent storm. 

French is also interested in exploring what leads to tornado dissipation and whether forecasters can use radar analysis to make dissipation predictions.

Looking at time scales of 30 seconds or fewer, he studies how tornadoes evolve, including how they tilt, how their intensity changes with height, and their motion. He can estimate these characteristics with phased-array radar technology, in which the beam of the radar is steered electronically.

Scientists like French can tap into archived data from a network of 160 radars stationed throughout the country. He would like to use information from the past 10 to 15 years to analyze hundreds of supercell thunderstorms to find commonalities among those that produce tornadoes and those that don’t.

“Ideally, in the future, such information, to the extent it exists, can be leveraged by forecasters to better assess the likelihood of a storm producing a tornado,” French explained.

Many of his ideas for research projects come from reading the results of papers from colleagues who use computer models to simulate storms and tornadoes. In a model, the scientists can control conditions like temperature and humidity. French thinks about ways to verify the findings using observational data.

Funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, French participates in the Propagation, Evolution and Rotation in Linear Storms field experiment (called PERiLS). 

Running from February through May in the southeast, the experiment studies tornadoes within a different type of storm, referred to as squall lines. The tornadoes that form in these storms persist or form overnight, often hitting while people are sleeping and are unprepared to protect themselves.

He is working with Stony Brook Professor Pavlos Kollias in using mobile phased array radar to collect data over short time scales of these squall lines when they’re producing tornadoes.

In areas where people live in mobile homes, these squall line tornadoes can lift the home, damaging homes and threatening the lives of people as they sleep.

Exciting findings

French uses a radar called dual polarization, which provides information about the size, shape, orientation and type of precipitation. He is interested in whether this technology can identify differences in storms to predict the formation of tornadoes.

In dual polarization, there are a few signatures of storms that hold some promise of differentiating between those that produce tornadoes and those that don’t.

Working with an algorithm to identify the ZDR column, which is a proxy for the size of the updraft, developed by Darrel Kingfield at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, French analyzed 200 supercell storms and found that the ZDR column was larger in storms that produce stronger tornadoes and was smaller or nonexistent in storms that did not.

Forecasters don’t have a way yet to automate the size of the ZDR column in real time.

In an email, Bluestein suggested that French’s studies, including on how tornadoes dissipate, can “contribute to improved short term forecasting.”

Bluestein, who has seen over 100 tornadoes, also suggested that two papers from French that related drop size distributions estimated from polarimetric radar data in supercells were “original and rather novel. This work has implications for estimating the intensity of pools of cool air in storms, which can be related to tornado formation.”

Dinner table conversations

A resident of Stony Brook, French lives with his wife Jennifer, who is a hydrometeorologist at Vieux & Co. The couple met when they were at the University of Oklahoma. 

French said his wife, who storm chased when she was in Oklahoma, knows the safety measures he uses to mitigate the risks. 

While French studies these storms because of their destructive power and the need to understand more about how and where they will form, he also has an appreciation for them.

At a distance, when these storms aren’t impacting people and when he can’t hear the roar of the wind, French describes tornadoes as a “wonder of nature” that have an “aesthetic element to them that is really astounding.”

As for his childhood concern about these storms, French feels that he “ultimately channeled [his fear] in a positive way.”

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Photo by Lucas Blair Simpson © SOM

When the City of New York and the Trust for Governors Island chose Stony Brook University to lead a collection of institutions to build a new climate solutions center on Governors Island, the moment marked both an ending and a beginning.

For Skidmore, Owings & Merrill, which provided a concept-level design for the institution, the announcement brings SOM and the work it will do with the Manhattan-based landscape architecture firm MNLA to a new stage.

“The work we have done is essentially through a concept level of design,” said Keith O’Connor, principal at SOM. “Now that Stony Brook has been selected, we’ll be doing much more detailed work in schematic design and design development.”

While the plans call for the biggest mass timber building in New York City, the developers of the project, which will start in 2025 and is expected to open in 2028, have not gotten into the details about all the materials they will use and where they will purchase them.

As with so many other decisions related to a center dedicated to understanding and combating the effects of climate change, the choices for the materials will reflect the center’s goals.

“It’s not only about how we come up with the best system and most appropriate design,” O’Connor said. “It has to be a holistic picture. It’s all about the full life of the materials — everything from where they originate, how they are processed and how they are transported and shipped.”

The decisions will consider the future and the way the center, which Stony Brook has named the New York Climate Exchange, might reuse or adapt the materials.

In addition, SOM and Stony Brook are committed to executing changes in the construction of the 400,000-square-foot facility, which will include 230,000 square feet of new buildings and 170,000 square feet of refurbished space.

SOM will share information related to the process.

“We need to help other people understand how they, too, can make intelligent choices,” O’Connor said.

SOM plans to implement tried and true technologies and push the envelope in doing things that haven’t been done.

“What we do with the Exchange can help move the market,” said O’Connor.

SOM has been working with mass timber in several projects, including for the Billie Jean King Library in Long Beach, California. SOM will also use mass timber as a part of the High Line-Moynihan Train Hall Connector, a pedestrian path between Moynihan Train Hall, Manhattan West and the High Line.

O’Connor explained that mass timber doesn’t need an additional finish on top of it, which allows builders and designers to use less material.

The design of the buildings will be 18 feet in elevation, which is 10 feet higher than the existing structures. Stony Brook and SOM wanted the buildings to have resilience amid future storm surges.

The goal of the Exchange is to use effective design techniques to enhance resilience.

Part of the proposal involves altering the stone sea wall, a hard-engineered armored edge of the island, and replacing it with a living shoreline that is ecologically and landscape based.

The island will have a variety of plantings to create a terrestrial and diverse habitat, O’Connor added.

Working with MNLA, SOM is coming up with plantings that are appropriate for conditions ranging from elevations of five and eight feet with exposure to salt spray up to 18 feet.

O’Connor explained that the teams involved in the project are eager to start working. The next steps will include design engineering, procurement and construction, which will “take some time.”

O’Connor was pleased to be involved in a project that is “profoundly meaningful to our city and society.” He suggested such work might occur once or twice in a generation or a career.

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Stony Brook University President Maurie McInnis, center, was among the panelists at the Charles B. Wang Center discussing the creation of the New York Climate Exchange. Photo by Daniel Febrizio

Stony Brook University students and faculty gathered Tuesday, April 25, at the Charles B. Wang Center for a special town hall meeting that marked the creation of the New York Climate Exchange on Governors Island in New York City. The event was free and open to the public.

The panelists included Maurie McInnis, SBU president; Jed Shivers, senior vice president for finance and administration; Kevin Reed, associate dean for Research in the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences; and Keith O’Connor, principal at Skidmore, Owings & Merrill, which has been developing this project.

The event was moderated by Craig Allen, chief meteorologist for WCBS-880 and a former Stony Brook University graduate.

McInnis spoke on her excitement regarding this opportunity for Stony Brook to be the anchor institution for the climate exchange.

“Setting ambitious goals, responding to society’s greatest needs and propelling our university to even higher levels of excellence … this is the Stony Brook way, and it’s why we’re here today,” McInnis said. She added that SBU is going to “bring together the world’s most innovative organizations across sectors to problem solve and turn solutions into action.”

Shivers explained that “the climate exchange is a separate and distinct charitable organization” from the university and that “no Stony Brook University funds shall be utilized as part of the capital that needs to be raised to do the design or the construction work or support the initial operating expenses.”

Reed followed by noting that while SBU will not be making financial investments, “what Stony Brook is going to get to invest is our ideas and, as the president already mentioned, our problem-solving skills.”

O’Connor spoke on how “all of the energy will be generated on-site” because it is going to be a “100% electric campus.” He added that “one of the objectives is the buildings, the landscape and the systems all coming together to demonstrate how you build a sustainable long-term campus.”

After the conclusion of the town hall, which included a brief Q&A that allowed some members of the audience to speak, TBR spoke to some attendees to get their reactions to this announcement.

Sergio Perez, a professor from the Marine Engineering Department of the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy in Kings Point, expressed excitement at the promise and potential of this project since hundreds of millions of dollars will go into it. “We can do a vast improvement to Governors Island,” Perez said. “At the very worst it’s going to create lots of jobs. But at the very best it will have an effect on climate change.” 

Sky Freeman, a student studying journalism and political science, said he believes “it’s going to be a fantastic opportunity for Stony Brook to combat climate change.”

“I think if I had the opportunity to get involved, it would definitely be something I would seriously consider,” Freeman said. “I think the design of the building is very unique, very cool — it’ll create a great atmosphere on the island.”

He added that he does not think that most students are aware of the plans for the climate exchange, but that he knows there is a lot of excitement from the administration and from faculty.

Paul Shepson, dean of the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at SBU, said that he anticipates his school being a “contributor to the success of the exchange.”

“Our faculty will be involved in many ways in developing programs and engaging in some of the research that goes on there,” Shepson said. “I love that Stony Brook is leading in the creation of this exchange where we’re going to be a convener of the best minds in the world in identifying and implementing solutions to the climate crisis.”

While there is still more planning and development to be done, McInnis said it is anticipated that ground will be broken on the project in 2025 for completion by 2028.

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Stony Brook University President Maurie McInnis, left, shakes hands with New York City Mayor Eric Adams. Photo by John Griffin/Stony Brook University

With a vision to turn parts of Governors Island into a world-class center that blends into the surrounding greenery, Stony Brook University won the highly competitive process to create a climate solutions center.

New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D) and the Trust for Governors Island earlier this week named Stony Brook the lead in teaming up with other universities, nonprofits and businesses to create a $700 million facility that will start construction in 2025 and open in 2028.

Backed by a $100 million donation from the Simons Foundation, a $50 million gift from Bloomberg Philanthropies and $150 million from the City of New York, Stony Brook will create a unique 400,000 square-foot facility.

The center will house research laboratories and host community discussions, train 6,000 people to work in green energy jobs per year, provide educational opportunities and search for climate solutions, including those that affect low-income communities of color.

“Climate change is here and the danger is real,” Adams said at a press conference on Governors Island unveiling the winner of the competition. “I am proud to announce that we have selected a team led by Stony Brook University to deliver the New York Climate Exchange.”

Adams suggested the Stony Brook team, which includes local partners like Pace University, New York University and the City University of New York, will protect the city’s air and water.

The Trust for Governors Island also anticipates the site, which will include a “semester abroad” on-site, fellowships and internship programs, will host scientific symposiums that can bring together leaders in a range of fields.

In an email, Simons Foundation President David Spergel hopes the center will “nucleate new business that generates jobs in the region, invest in new technologies and advance solutions.”

The foundation is helping to recruit other benefactors to meet the financial needs for the site both by the example of its commitment and through personal interactions, Spergel said.

Stony Brook, meanwhile, which has a deep pool of researchers at the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences investigating climate-related issues, doesn’t plan to wait until the buildings are refurbished and constructed to start the conceptual and educational work.

During phase zero, the university will “work with our partners immediately” on developing programs for kindergarten through grade 12 outreach, on scaling up green workforce development and on developing collaborative research projects across institutions, SBU President Maurie McInnis said in a town hall discussion with the campus community.

Left to right: Deputy Mayor Maria Torres-Springer, Simons Foundation president David Spergel, SBU President Maurie McInnis, New York City Mayor Eric Adams, Harbor School student Leanna Martin Peterson and Trust for Governors Island President Clare Newman. Photo by John Griffin/Stony Brook University

Practice what it preaches

In addition to providing space that will generate and test out ideas for solutions to climate change, the New York Climate Exchange buildings will minimize the carbon footprint.

There will be 230,000 square feet of new space and 170,000 square feet of refurbished existing structures. The plans, which were created by Skidmore, Owings & Merrill, involve creating the biggest mass-timber building in New York City. As an alternative to concrete and steel, mass timber has a lower carbon footprint and is lighter.

Mass timber uses “less material and in a more efficient way,” said Keith O’Connor, principal at SOM, who runs the city design practice in New York and Washington, D.C., in an interview.

SOM designed the tops of the buildings with 142,000 square feet of solar cells, which will generate more than enough power for the site, enabling the center to provide all of its electricity needs and to send some energy to the city.

“We wanted to work really hard to avoid having a field of solar panels sitting off to the side” or sticking solar panels on each roof, O’Connor said. Instead, the solar panels, which will be at slightly different angles from each other, track the topography of the structures without creating a glaring field of reflected light.

Guests who arrive at Governors Island will notice a solar canopy that is “front and center,” O’Connor said. “It’s about a message for everyone who is visiting — it says that energy generation is critical.”

SOM wanted to find a way to create a warm and welcoming aesthetic that provides energy, O’Connor added.

All of the nondrinking water will come from rainwater and treated wastewater.

The site anticipates diverting 95% of waste from landfills, making it one of the first in the country to achieve true zero-waste certification.

“The concept of the physical structure is astonishing,” David Manning, director of Stakeholder Relations at Brookhaven National Laboratory, which will serve as an adviser on the center, said in an interview. “You want to attract the best and the brightest. You do that with programming. It doesn’t hurt that [the design and the facilities] are also cool.”

An aerial rendering of the island after construction, which will also include 4.5 acres of new open space, looks more like a park than a typical research station.

Governors Island, which hosts about a million visitors each year who arrive on ferries that run every half hour, plans to double the ferry service, with trips traveling every 15 minutes during the day starting next year. Also in 2024, the city will start using a hybrid electric ferry to reduce emissions.

Considerable collaborative support

McInnis expressed her gratitude to the team at Stony Brook and to her partners for putting together the winning proposal.

McInnis suggested that the university’s commitment to studying, understanding and mitigating climate change, coupled with national and international collaborations, would unite numerous strengths in one place.

“We knew we had the right team to lead this effort,” said McInnis at the announcement on Governors Island. “We also knew we needed a diverse set of partners” in areas including environmental justice, in the business sector and in philanthropic communities.

Other partners include Georgia Tech, University of Washington, Duke University, Rochester Institute of Technology and University of Oxford, England.

BNL’s Manning appreciated the opportunity to attend the kickoff of the project on Governors Island. 

Near the tip of Manhattan amid a “stunning blue sky,” the gathering was the “perfect setting” to announce and create solutions that were “this future focused,” Manning said.

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Photo from Stony Brook Athletics

The Stony Brook softball team run-ruled Hampton, 9-0, in five innings to win game three and ultimately take the series on April 23 at University Field.

It was all Seawolves in the series finale as the squad got off to a hot start with a solo home run in the first inning by sophomore outfielder Alyssa Costello. Junior infielder Sofia Chambers fed off of Costello’s momentum, plating senior infielder Brooke Dye in the second inning after she singled up the middle.

Costello added to her standout day with a two RBI double up the middle in the second to bring home junior outfielder Alicia Orosco and Chambers which increased Stony Brook’s lead to 4-0. Junior infielder Ashley Jacobson added a solo home run of her own in the third and sophomore catcher Emily Reinstein was able to score off a wild throw by Hampton’s catcher.

Senior catcher Corinne Badger sealed the victory for the Seawolves with a three-run home run in the bottom of the fourth to secure the 9-0 win.

“Just going up there and thinking about getting my barrel to the ball and just trying to hit it hard to help out my teammates anyway that I can,” said junior infielder Ashley Jacobson on her successful hitting.

“Throughout the season my confidence has definitely gone up since the beginning of the season. I felt like I wasn’t really stringing good at bats together, but now that confidence is there and it fuels off of my teammates 100 percent,” said sophomore outfielder Alyssa Costello.

“We just need to keep playing good softball. We have put all three parts together in the last two games of the series, pitching, offense and defense. We are swinging at better pitches and we really want to be able to be productive through the lineup and not just rely on one person and I think it is tough when a team has to come out and really work on batters one through nine,” said head coach Megan T. Bryant.

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Photo from Stony Brook Athletics

The Stony Brook men’s lacrosse team sent its 10 seniors off with a thrilling 17-14 win over Fairfield on April 22. Senior attackman Dylan Pallonetti led the charge for the Seawolves as he tallied six points and scored a game-high five goals en route to the crucial CAA victory.

The Seawolves used a big first quarter to take an early 8-4 lead. Stony Brook had six different goal scorers in the opening frame, which included Pallonetti who recorded a hat trick over the first 10 minutes of play. The Seawolves scored six of the first seven goals in the game and at one point scored four consecutive goals in the first and took a 6-1 lead.

Stony Brook carried over its momentum into the second quarter as it outscored Fairfield, 3-2, in the frame and took an 11-6 advantage into the halftime break. Graduate midfielder Matt Anderson, graduate attackman Jonathan Huber, and senior attackman Will Button all rattled the cage in the second quarter as the trio helped cushion the Seawolves’ first half lead.
 
The teams played an even third quarter as Stony Brook took a 15-10 lead into the final frame. Senior defenseman Michael Sabella made a highlight reel play with 3:04 to play in the third quarter.
 
Sabella knocked the stick out of Fairfield midfielder Rob Moore’s hands to force a turnover, he then scooped up the ground ball, took it down to the offensive end of the field and ripped a shot into the back of the net. For Sabella, it was his first career goal, and it gave the Seawolves a 14-8 lead.

Fairfield started the fourth quarter hot by scoring three goals over the first four minutes of play to cut Stony Brook’s lead to 15-13. Following a Seawolves’ timeout and on the ensuing face-off, graduate defensive midfielder David Miele-Estrella picked up the loose ball at the X, charged down field, and found Pallonetti who ripped his fifth goal of the game and upped the Seawolves lead to 16-13.

Stony Brook added an insurance goal with 2:04 to play in the contest when senior attackman Blake Behlen found the back of the net to give the Seawolves a 17-14 advantage, a score they would hold on to win by.

Sophomore goalie Jamison MacLachlan came up huge for the Seawolves in the fourth quarter as he made six of his 15 saves in the final frame. Five of those six saves in the fourth quarter kept Stony Brook up 16-14 from the 10:01 mark until there was 2:04 to play.

Before the game, Stony Brook honored seniors Jimmy Burns, David Miele-Estrella, Liam Ronan, Renz Conlon, Tynan Hillery, Nick Squicciarini, Jonathan Huber, Dylan McDermott, Matt Anderson, and Caleb Pearson for their contributions to the program.
 
STATS AND NOTES

  • Pallonetti finished the game with six points, which included five goals and one assist. He extended his goal scoring streak to 41 games, which continues to be the longest such streak in the nation. He now has 45 goals on the season, the eighth-most in a single-season in program history. For his career, he now has 115 goals, which ties him with Bo Tripodi and Tom Haun for the sixth-most in program history.
  • Huber and Anderson both finished the game with hat tricks. For Huber, it was his fifth hat trick of the season and the 21st of his career. For Anderson, it was also his fifth hat trick of 2023 and the 12th of his career.
  • Junior Noah Armitage registered four points (one goal, three assists). The three assists tied a career-high (also dished out three assists in a game at Monmouth on Mar. 25).
  • Behlen totaled three points (one goal, two assists). It was the 11th time this season that he recorded a multi-point game and fifth time he finished a game with multiple assists.
  • Sabella scored his first career goal, picked up a career-high tying five ground balls, and caused two turnovers. He held Fairfield’s Bryce Ford to just one goal on 1-of-5 shooting.
  • Miele-Estrella scored his first goal of the season and dished out his first assist of the season. The goal was the fifth of his career.
  • MacLachlan made 15 saves and picked up a pair of ground balls. It marked the seventh time this season that he made 10 or more saves in a game and the fourth time that he has made 15 or more stops in a contest.

“There is so much emotion on senior day and I am so happy for that group and so proud to get them a win in their last game at LaValle Stadium. The guys worked hard all week – I thought we had a really good week of practice and we saw the results in today’s win over Fairfield,” said head coach Anthony Gilardi.
 
NEXT UP
The team concludes the 2023 regular season next Saturday, April 29, when it makes the short trip over to Hempstead to take on Long Island rival Hofstra at 7 p.m. It marks the first time that the teams will meet since February 27, 2021, when the Pride earned a 20-17 win at Shuart Stadium. The Seawolves last defeated the Pride on February 25, 2020, when they picked up a 14-11 win at LaValle Stadium.

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Pixabay photo

By Daniel Dunaief

The weather outside has been frightful and local researchers suggest the trend has been anything but delightful.

Over the last year, the country has confronted numerous violent and intense storms, causing property damage and leading to evacuations and rescues. Just last week, Fort Lauderdale, Florida received a month’s worth of rain in an hour amid a storm that dumped over two feet of rain on the city. Such a torrential storm isn’t unique to Florida, as areas including Dallas experienced significant rains last August that crippled the city.

Malcolm Bowman

“The extremes are increasing,” said Malcolm Bowman, Professor Emeritus at the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook University. “It’s part of the prediction of climate science.”

Indeed, as the atmosphere becomes warmer, the increase in water vapor raises the amount of rain in a particular storm, added Edmund Chang, Professor in the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook University. Chang and other local scientists discussed their concerns and potential cause for optimism amid the approach of the 54th anniversary of Earth Day.

Climate Change report

This March, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a report that suggested that climate change was worsening and that the Earth will likely increase by more than the 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial revolution averages that would lead to numerous environmental damage.

“Since the last IPCC report, there has been a lot more research looking at these weather extremes,” Chang said.

Edmund Chang

In warmer temperatures, which have increased on average for the Earth by 1.1 degrees, storms carry significantly more precipitation.

While it is outside the realm of his own research, Chang said that other researchers have demonstrated that storms in the Northeastern United States have had an increase in higher precipitation events, which is also linked to the fact that these storms are moving more slowly, drenching areas with rain before slowly leaving.

Chang is particularly concerned about sea level rise. “I have lived in coastal areas all my life,” he said. “We know that the sea level is rising. The rate of rise is accelerated.” Counteracting the effects of melting ice sheets in Greenland and the Antarctic are among the more difficult processes to mitigate, he added.

In his own research, Chang is assessing the bias in models that predict whether a season will likely be stormier than average. He is looking at how model biases may impact the accuracy of longer range forecasts.

Different models have different biases, he explained. Weather channel fans, and those who watch storm models for approaching hurricanes and other events, may recognize that meteorologists often overlay American and European weather models, particularly when describing approaching hurricanes.

In Chang’s research, he has found that combining different models improves the forecast. “A better way of improving models is to understand where the model biases or error comes from” rather than averaging errors that cancel each other out, he said.

Reasons for optimism

Chang believes there are reasons for optimism about efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change. The current administration is “starting to impose more stringent emissions controls from vehicles,” he said. “It’s getting a bit more encouraging.”

In other areas, world leaders have also taken encouraging steps towards protecting the oceans and biodiversity. Last month, the United Nations announced the legal framework for a High Seas treaty, which protects biodiversity, reduces pollutions and shares ocean resources. After 20 years of work, 193 countries verbally agreed to a treaty to protect 30 percent of the world’s oceans by 2030.

Ellen Pikitch

The treaty is “of monumental importance,” said Ellen Pikitch, endowed professor of Ocean Conservation Science and executive director of the Institute for Ocean Conservation Science at the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook University. “The treaty will enable marine protected areas (MPAs) to be created in areas outside national jurisdictions and allow fisheries management of species in international waters not currently covered by regional agreements.”

Citing recent reports, Bowman said global emissions of carbon dioxide have declined 2 percent over the last 12 months. “There are moves, even in China, to bring in solar and wind” power, he added.

Local concerns

As storms hit areas like Florida and Texas, Long Islanders frequently wonder about the readiness of the region for future storms. Indeed, Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc in the Middle Atlantic states in 2012.

“If we had another Sandy, it could be just as bad or worse,” said Bowman, who has been a part of a storm surge working group in New York.

In the fall, the Army Corps of Engineers published a tentatively selected plan for the area after the administration of President Biden (D) reinstated the Harbor and Tributary Study, which was temporarily halted in 2019. The plan doesn’t involve enough protection along the harbor with concrete and steel, Bowman said. 

“They say [concrete] is terrible,” Bowman said. “We say it’s necessary.”

Any plan for flooding in and around the New York area would not only have to address how to handle a storm surge that brought water in from the ocean. It would also have to provide a way for any heavy rains to get out.

The reality of global warming is “scary,” said Bowman. And yet, “how many people are changing their living habits?”

As for his native New Zealand, Bowman said a tornado touched down in recent weeks, which is “unheard of.” While the tornado was not on the scale of such twisters in Kansas, he said it ripped through several homes.

New Zealand, with a population of five million people, is moving toward using electric cars, while the country is also considering a genetic modification in cattle that reduces the production of methane from when they burp or pass gas.

“There’s a big push in New Zealand to do its bit,” Bowman said.

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Above, conceptual rendering of the proposed Center for Climate Solutions on Governors Island. Photo from New York City

The New York City Mayor’s Office and the Trust for Governors Island may soon announce the winner for the global competition to create the Center for Climate Solutions.

In October, Stony Brook University was announced as a finalist for the ambitious project. Northeastern University and the City University of New York and the New School were the leaders of the other bids.

A multidimensional environmental effort designed to educate the public, offer climate solutions and ensure equitable climate solutions, the competition, which was launched in 2020 by former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D), is expected to create over $1 billion in economic impact and create 7,000 permanent jobs.

The winner or winners will create a space on the island that features views of the Statue of Liberty and the Brooklyn Bridge with several key features. The center will provide a way to study the impacts of climate change, host a living lab that provides entrepreneurs and nonprofits that can test and showcase their climate solutions, serve as an urban center for environmental justice organizations, feature dormitories and housing and provide space for New Yorkers and visitors to discuss climate change.

Partners on the Stony Brook proposal include Brookhaven National Laboratory, International Business Machines, Georgia Institute of Technology, Pace University, Pratt Institute, University of Washington, Duke University, Moody’s Corporation, Rochester Institute of Technology, SUNY Maritime College, Oxford University, URBS Systems, General Electric and other business, nonprofit and on-Island partners.

The proposals offered ways to support interdisciplinary research focused on urban adaptation, urban environments, public policy, environmental justice and public health.

At the same time, the finalists offered educational programs for students all the way from K-12 through graduate and adult education.

The center will provide workforce training opportunities, incubators and accelerator spaces for nonprofits and entrepreneurs working on climate and public programming.

The selection committee that is choosing the winners includes representatives from the Trust for Governors Island, Mayor Eric Adams’s (D) Office of Climate and Environmental Justice, the Mayor’s Office of Equity and the New York City Department of City Planning.

“New York City is facing some of the most complex climate adaptation challenges in the world,” Kizzy Charles-Guzman, executive director of the Mayor’s Office of Climate and Environmental Justice, said in a statement when the finalists were announced last October. “The Center for Climate Solutions will bring together actionable science, community-based partnerships and innovative and equitable solutions to communities on the frontline of the climate crisis.”

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H. Andrew Schwartz Photo from SBU

By Daniel Dunaief

Ideally, doctors would like to know about health threats or dangers such as diseases or chronic conditions before they threaten a person’s quality of life or expected lifespan.

On a larger scale, politicians and planners would also like to gauge how people are doing, looking for markers or signs that something may be threatening the health or safety of a community.  

Researchers in computer science at Stony Brook University have been designing artificial intelligence programs that explore the language used in social media posts as gauges of mental health.

Recently, lead author Matthew Matero, a PhD student in Computer Science at Stony Brook; senior author H. Andrew Schwartz, Associate Professor in Computer Science at Stony Brook; National Institute on Drug Abuse data scientist Salvatore Giorgi; Lyle H. Ungar, Professor of Computer and Information Science at the University of Pennsylvania; and Brenda Curtis, Assistant Professor of Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania published a study in the journal Nature Digital Medicine in which they used the language in social media posts to predict community rates of opioid-related deaths in the next year.

By looking at changes in language from 2011 to 2017 in 357 counties, Schwartz and his colleagues built a model named TrOP (Transformer for Opioid Prediction) with a high degree of accuracy in predicting the community rates of opioid deaths in the following year.

“This is the first time we’ve forecast what’s going to happen next year,” Schwartz said. The model is “much stronger than other information that’s available” such as income, unemployment, education rates, housing, and demographics.

To be sure, Schwartz cautioned that this artificial intelligence model, which uses some of the same underlying techniques as the oft-discussed chatGPT in coming up with a model of ordered data, would still need further testing before planners or politicians could use it to mitigate the opioid crisis.

“We hope to see [this model] replicated in newer years of data before we would want to go to policy makers with it,” he said.

Schwartz also suggested that this research, which looked at the overall language use in a community, wasn’t focused on finding characteristics of individuals at risk, but, rather at the overall opioid death risks to a community.

Schwartz used the self-reported location in Twitter profiles to look at representation of a community.

The data from the model, which required at least 100 active accounts each with at least 30 posts, have proven remarkably effective in their predictions and hold out the potential not only of encouraging enforcement or remediation to help communities, but also of indicating what programs are reducing mortality. Their model forecast the death rates of those communities with about a 3 percent error.

Both directions

Schwartz explained that the program effectively predicted positive and negative changes in opioid deaths.

On the positive side, Schwartz said language that reflected a reduction in opioid mortality included references to future social events, vacation, travel and discussions about the future.

Looking forward to travel can be a “signal of prosperity and having adventures in life,” Schwartz said. Talking about tomorrow was also predictive. Such positive signals could also reflect on community programs designed to counteract the effect of the opioid epidemic, offering a way of predicting how effective different efforts might be in helping various communities.

On the negative side, language patterns that preceded increases in opioid deaths included mentions of despair and boredom.

Within community changes

Other drug and opioid-related studies have involved characterizing what distinguishes people from different backgrounds, such as educational and income levels.

Language use varies in different communities, as words like “great” and phrases like “isn’t that special” can be regional and context specific.

To control for these differences, Schwartz, Matero and Giorgi created an artificial intelligence program that made no assumptions about what language was associated with increases or decreases. It tested whether the AI model could find language that predicted the future reliably, by testing against data the model had never seen before.

By monitoring social media in these specific locales over time, the researchers can search for language changes within the community. 

Scientists can explore the word and phrases communities used relative to the ones used by those same communities in the past.

“We don’t make any assumptions about what words mean” in a local context, Schwartz said. He can control for language differences among communities by focusing on language differences within a community.

Schwartz recognized that fine refinements to the model in various communities could enhance the predictive ability of the program.

“If we could fully account for differences in cultural, ethnic and other variables about a community, we should be able to increase the ability to predict what’s going to happen next year,” he said.

With its dependence on online language data, the model was less effective in communities where the number of social media posts is lower. “We had the largest error in communities with the lowest rates of posting,” Schwartz explained. On the opposite side, “we were the most accurate in communities with the highest amounts” of postings or data.

Broader considerations

While parents, teachers and others sometimes urge friends and their children to limit their time on social media because of concerns about its effects on people, a potential positive is that these postings might offer general data about a community’s mental health. The study didn’t delve into individual level solutions, but these scientists and others have work that suggests this is possible.

As for his future work, Schwartz said he planned to use this technique and paradigm in other contexts. He is focusing on using artificial intelligence for a better understanding of mental health.

“We hope to take this method and apply it to other outcomes, such as depression rates, alcohol use disorder rates,” post traumatic stress disorder and other conditions, Schwartz said. “A big part of the direction in my lab is trying to focus on creating AI methods that focus on time based predictions.”

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#33 Josh O'Neill prepares to pitch. Photo from Stony Brook Athletics

The Stony Brook Baseball team (13-19, 5-9 CAA) got off to a fast start against Northeastern University (27-7, 9-5 CAA) on April 16 by dropping four runs on the team from Boston in the first inning and never looked back to ultimately take the 11-3 victory at Joe Nathan Field. 

The offense was paced by four different student-athletes recording three-hit performances as graduate Evan Giordano, senior Brett Paulsen, the junior tandem of Evan Fox and junior Matt Brown-Eiring all tallied three knocks and at-least one RBI. 

Fox got the bottom half of the first inning started with a knock, which extended his on-base streak to 30 games to start the season. After stealing second, junior Ryan Micheli knocked in Fox on a screamer to center field. 

Graduate Evan Giordano singled in the next at-bat and both Giordano and Micheli stole a bag to get themselves in scoring position. Then, senior Shane Paradine did his job by driving home Micheli on a sac-fly to give Stony Brook a 2-0 advantage. Junior Matt Brown-Eiring tallied his first of three hits to bring home Giordano and a few batters later, Paulsen capped the rally by bringing in Brown-Eiring on a hit to right field, giving Stony Brook a 4-0 lead after the first inning. 

Stony Brook carried their momentum at the plate over the next three innings by tallying three runs in the second, two runs in the third, and a run in the fourth. 

It was the top of the Stony Brook order that did the damage in the second inning. Micheli started the rally by reaching on a hit-by-pitch, followed by Giordano advancing him to third on a double and Paradine loading the bases after he was hit by a pitch. Brown-Eiring and Paulsen both recorded RBI knocks, and junior Derek Yalon brought in a run on a double-play, giving Stony Brook the 7-0 advantage. Fox  also tallied an RBI single in the next inning.

The team sent out senior Josh O’Neill to make his second conference start of the season and make his 11th start of his career. For the second week in a row, O’Neill reocrded the victory as he tossed 6.0 innings, allowing three hits, one run (earned) and struck out eight batters. 

Again in the third inning it was the top-of-the-order for Stony Brook that was doing the damage. Fox led the frame off by doubling and scored after Giordano knocked him in on a single. Following a Paradine double, Brown-Eiring knocked in Giordano on a sac-fly giving the squad a 9-0 lead in the third. 

After O’Neill left the game in the seventh, the Huskies tallied a run in the frame but Brown-Eiring responded in the next half inning with his fifth homer of the season to give Stony Brook the 11-2 advantage. 

Sophomore JT Raab finished off the final three innings out of the pen for Stony Brook to seal the victory and earn the second save of his career.

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