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investments

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By Michael Christodoulou

Michael Christodoulou

As we begin the new year, you may be receiving various tax statements from your financial services provider — so it’s a good time to consider how your investments are taxed. This type of knowledge is useful when you’re doing your taxes, and, perhaps just as important, knowing the type of taxes you generate can help you evaluate your overall investment strategy. 

To understand the tax issues associated with investing, it’s important to understand that investments typically generate either capital gains or ordinary income. This distinction is meaningful because different tax rates may apply, and taxes may be due at different times. 

So, when do you pay either capital gains taxes or ordinary income taxes on your investments? You receive capital gains, and pay taxes on these gains, when you sell an investment that’s increased in value since you purchased it. Long-term capital gains (on investments held more than a year) are taxed at 0%, 15% and 20%, depending on your income. 

Also, qualified dividends — which represent most of the dividends paid by American companies to investors — are taxed at the same rates as long-term capital gains. (Keep in mind that you’ll be taxed on dividends even if you automatically reinvest them.)

On the other hand, you pay ordinary income taxes on capital gains resulting from sales of appreciated assets you’ve held for one year or less. You also pay ordinary income taxes when you receive “ordinary” dividends, which are paid if you purchase shares of a company after the cutoff point for shareholders to be credited with a stock dividend (the ex-dividend date). 

Because your ordinary income tax rate may be much higher than even the top long-term capital gains rate, you may be better off, from a tax standpoint, by focusing on investments that generate long-term capital gains. And the best strategy for doing just that is to buy quality investments and hold them for the long term. By doing so, you could also reduce the costs and fees associated with frequent buying and selling.

The investment tax situation has another twist, though, because not all ordinary income is taxable — and if it is, it may not be taxable immediately. The most common example of this is tax-deferred accounts, such as a traditional IRA and 401(k). When you take money from these accounts, typically at retirement, you’ll pay taxes at your personal tax rate, but for the years and decades before then, your taxes were deferred, which meant these accounts could grow faster than ones on which you paid taxes every year. Consequently, it’s generally a good idea to regularly contribute to your tax-advantaged retirement accounts. 

Finally, some investments and investment accounts are tax free. Municipal bonds are free from federal income taxes, and often state income taxes, too. And when you invest in a Roth IRA, your earnings can grow tax free if you don’t start taking withdrawals until you’re at least 59½ and you’ve had your account at least five years. 

Ultimately, tax considerations probably shouldn’t be the key driver of your investment choices. Nonetheless, knowing the tax implications of your investments — specifically, what type of taxes they may generate and when these taxes will be due — can help you evaluate which investment choices are appropriate for your needs.  

Michael Christodoulou, ChFC®, AAMS®, CRPC®, CRPS® is a Financial Advisor for Edward Jones in Stony Brook. Edward Jones, Member SIPC

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Over the last ten years, NVIDIA’s shares have risen more than ten thousand percent, the best performance of any company in the S & P 500 over that period.

By Michael E. Russell

Michael E. Russell

As we start off summer with a beautiful Memorial Day weekend I think back to the many sacrifices of the men and women who served in our Armed Forces. They fought to defend our freedom and defeat tyranny all over the globe.  I especially think about my father-in-law, Dr. Sherman Mills, who served in Europe during WWII.  

Dr. Mills was a D-Day surgeon who survived Normandy and the march into Germany. Upon discharge he came home to Long Island and worked as a physician in Port Jefferson, attending to patients in his office, at their homes and at St. Charles and J.T. Mather Memorial Hospital; a man of the greatest generation. Papa, you are missed. 

Well, how is your money doing? For those of you who have followed my articles over the past year, I repeatedly spoke of the company NVIDIA. Ring a bell? NVIDIA invents the GPU and advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI), HPC, gaming, creative design, autonomous vehicles and robotics.  Their stock was trading at $122 on October 14, 2022. It closed this past Friday at $389.46.  This past Wednesday the stock surged by $81, an increase of 29% in one day.

NVIDIA’s remarkable increase in value represents the emergence of a new American corporate giant. Its market value is now more than $1 trillion. It now joins the likes of Apple, Microsoft and Amazon. Over the last ten years, NVIDIA’s shares have risen more than ten thousand percent, the best performance of any company in the S & P 500 over that period. Incredible numbers, but here are some other numbers to look at.

Tesla, at its peak in November 2021, was up 19,000 percent over the prior 10 years.  However, ten thousand percentage points of that gain have disappeared as reality has hit home. NVIDIA, as well as other semi-conductor companies, are in a remarkably lucrative spot in our technology ecosystem.  Their silicon chips are in high demand, whether it be cloud-computing, crypto, or, God help us, AI.  

Is the horse out of the barn or is it still a place to invest? Just remember, pigs get slaughtered. For those of you who own this stock, it may be wise to take some money off the table or put in some stop–losses.  

As I write this it appears that house speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden may have a debt ceiling deal after we had to worry about a potential U.S. Treasury default for the first time in history. McCarthy still has to convince the hard-liners in his caucus that this is a viable budget. We will know by June 5th. The American people have been tolerant of the shenanigans of our elected officials in Washington, but a default would be political suicide for many of these clowns!

Back to AI:  the more I learn, the more concern I have. Two weeks ago, Sam Altman, the chief executive of the San Francisco startup OpenAI, testified before members of a Senate sub-committee and spoke to the need for regulating the increasingly powerful AI technology being created by others like Google and Microsoft. In addition, Geoffrey Hinton, who is considered the Artificial Intelligence pioneer, spoke to the inherent dangers of AI. He made many bold statements, including his regrets for his life’s work. Wow! Major concerns include generative AI, which is already a tool for misinformation. He also considers AI a potential risk to all mankind. Stay tuned.  

On a positive note, it appears that the banking fiasco has abated for now. The major money center banks have stabilized the markets by buying up assets of smaller banks. In the meantime, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell appear to be lost in the forest without a compass.  

Once again readers, if you are looking for stability, Treasury yields on the 2-year bill are approaching 5%. With inflation slowing somewhat, not a bad place to put some money. Until next time.

Michael E. Russell retired after 40 years working for various Wall Street firms. All recommendations being made here are not guaranteed and may incur a loss of principal. The opinions and investment recommendations expressed in the column are the author’s own. TBR News Media does not endorse any specific investment advice and urges investors to consult with their financial advisor. 

Artificial Intelligence. Pixabay photo

By Michael E. Russell

Michael E. Russell

Two weeks ago I had the scary experience of watching 60 Minutes on CBS. The majority of the telecast pertained to A.I. (artificial intelligence). Scott Pelley of CBS interviewed Google CEO Sandar Pichai. His initial quote was that A.I. “will be as good or as evil as human nature allows.” The revolution, he continued, “is coming faster than one can imagine.”

I realize that my articles should pertain to investing, however, this 60 Minutes segment made me question where we as a society are headed.

Google and Microsoft are investing billions of dollars into A.I. using microchips built by companies such as Nvidia. What CEO Sundar has been doing since 2019 is leading both Google and its parent company Alphabet, valued at $1.3 trillion. Worldwide, Google runs 90% of internet searches and 70% of smartphones. It is presently in a race with Microsoft for A.I. dominance. 

Two months ago Microsoft unveiled its new chatbot. Google responded by releasing its own version named Bard. As the segment continued, we were introduced to Bard by Google Vice President Sissie Hsiao. The first thing that hit me was that Bard does not scroll for answers on the internet like the Google search engine does.

What is confounding is that with microchips built by companies such as Nvidia, they are more than 100 thousand times faster than the human brain. In my case, maybe 250 thousand times faster! 

Bard was asked to summarize the New Testament as a test. It accomplished this in 5 seconds. Using Latin, it took 4 seconds.  I need to sum this up. In 10 years A.I. will impact all aspects of our lives. The revolution in artificial intelligence is in the middle of a raging debate that has people on one side hoping it will save humanity, while others are predicting doom. I believe that we will be having many more conversations in the near future.

Okay folks, where is the economy today?  Well, apparently inflation is still a major factor in our everyday life. The Fed will probably increase rates for a 10th time in less than 2 years.

Having been employed by various Wall Street firms over the past 4 decades, I have learned that high priced analysts have the ability to foresee market direction no better than my grandchildren.

Looking back to May 2011, our savvy elected officials increased our debt-ceiling which led to the first ever downgrade of U.S. debt from its top triple A rating from S&P. This caused a very quick 19% decline in the S&P index.  Sound familiar?

It appears that the only time Capitol Hill tries to solve the debt ceiling impasse is when their own portfolio is affected.

This market rally has been led by chatbot affiliated companies. These stocks have added $1.4 trillion in stock market value this year. Keep in mind that just 6 companies were responsible for almost 60% of S&P gains.  These are the 6 leaders: Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platform, Salesforce and of course, Nvidia.

In the meantime, the Administration states that inflation has been reined in.  What stores are they shopping in? Here is the data release from Washington. Year over Year changes March 2022-March 2023:

• Food and non-alcoholic beverages up 8.1%

• Bread and cereal products up 10.8%

• Meat and seafood up 4.3%

• Electricity up 15.7%

When 1 pound of hot dogs rises from $3.25 to $7.50, that is not 8.1%. When Froot Loops go from $1.89 to $5.14 we are in trouble. The bureaucrats in D.C. make up numbers worse than George Santos.

On a positive note, the flowers are starting to bloom, the grass is starting to grow and we live in a special place. Of historic significance, we happen to be home to the second oldest active Episcopal Church in the United States. This year Caroline Church in Setauket will be celebrating its 300th anniversary. Congratulations.

Michael E. Russell retired after 40 years working for various Wall Street firms. All recommendations being made here are not guaranteed and may incur a loss of principal. The opinions and investment recommendations expressed in the column are the author’s own. TBR News Media does not endorse any specific investment advice and urges investors to consult with their financial advisor. 

METRO photo

By Michael E. Russell

Michael E. Russell

After a rocky start this past February, I am really looking forward to St. Patrick’s Day.

The world economy is showing resilience despite higher energy and food prices as well as rising borrowing costs. This is troubling in that the Federal Reserve may have to continue raising rates in order to bring inflation under control.

The World Bank has been blindsided by the growing vitality shown by the economies of the U.S., Europe and the surprising data coming out of China.

At the close of 2022, the World Bank was predicting that 2023 would be one of the weakest years for the economy in decades. Well, so much for having advanced degrees from the Wharton School and Harvard! I probably should not have said that, but couldn’t help it.

To explain, when the U.S. Central Bank raises rates, emerging markets borrowing costs rise causing currencies and exports to weaken. It is important to note that the 5 major emerging markets are Brazil, India, South Africa, Russia and China.

There is nothing in the near term that indicates that Fed policy has slowed growth and inflation. Many analysts are now saying that a recession will be delayed until 2024. Let us hope that they continue to be wrong! There was a cartoon in last week’s Wall Street Journal that says it all. At an economists meeting a speaker was looking at a report and stated, “This opinion is vague, it needs to be made extremely vague.” And so it goes, always certain but seldom right.

Even the brightest of the bright make mistakes. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has admitted that its plan to be the bank for everybody failed miserably. Goldman should have stayed with the business model that had worked for decades, managing the wealth of institutions and high net-worth individuals. This model has generated steady fees, no matter what the direction of the market. As an example, their Asset and Wealth unit generated almost $10 billion in profit last year. Why would they want to start servicing checking accounts? Wharton School, Harvard? Oops, sorry again.

Back to the market. February showed that inflation isn’t slowing as fast as expected. Bond and Stock markets underperformed as interest rates spiked. The 10 year treasury bond hit 4% while 1 and 2 year notes reached 5%. The S&P dropped 2 ½%, Dow Industrials down 4.2% and the Nasdaq down 1%.

U.S. equity funds declined by 2.2% cutting the yearly gain to less than 5%. Energy, Science and Technology were the best performers showing losses of less than 1%. At the close of February, Gold fell 5.5%, the worst loss in more than 18 months. Until inflation eases, Gold will probably continue to show losses.

This past week, Barron’s listed what it considers the 100 most sustainable U.S. companies. I have mentioned many of those companies in previous articles. One that I have strongly recommended is Nvidia [Nvda]. This stock was up 13% one day last week. I consider this U.S. company a long term holding in a portfolio. Nvidia is at the forefront of Artificial Intelligence [AI]. The U.S. government is partnering with Nvidia to help harness the power of A.I. to help solve some of society’s biggest challenges. [Purportedly]! They have now teamed with Microsoft to build a massive Cloud A.I. computer. The company has given robust forward guidance estimates for the next 5 years, thus my recommending holding for the long term. As a caveat, AMD is always a threat as well as Intel.  

Lastly, I really love these 2 year treasuries at 5%.

I hope each of you enjoy the coming spring which hopefully will bring lovely weather. On a closing note, happiest of birthdays to youngest son, Andrew Patrick, born on St. Patrick’s Day. Have one on me!!! 

Michael E. Russell retired after 40 years working for various Wall Street firms. All recommendations being made here are not guaranteed and may incur a loss of principal. The opinions and investment recommendations expressed in the column are the author’s own. TBR News Media does not endorse any specific investment advice and urges investors to consult with their financial advisor. 

METRO photo

By Michael E. Russell

Michael E. Russell

What we do know is that often, history repeats itself. We tell our children that they need to learn from their mistakes.  However, we never seem to follow our own advice. So where are we?

Trying to get a handle on how to manage our investments is proving to be difficult at best. The stock market is following every comment by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, hoping for a guiding light. 

This past Friday, stocks dropped after a strong opening despite a solid August payroll report. The report showed solid job growth, increasing labor force participation and slowing hourly wage increases. Perhaps this shows that inflation may have peaked. The report was positive enough to unlikely change monetary policy. In spite of this the S & P 500 Index still fell 1.1% with the Nasdaq Composite down 1.3%. This capped an awful August in which the S&P 500 fell more than 4%. That followed July’s 9% gain, the market’s most solid month in more than two years.

Okay folks, the lesson for today is which month to believe. Is this the start of a new bull market or is it a bear market rally?

Let’s talk about a sector of the market that is extremely perplexing. Social media is probably the most influential innovation of the 21st century. Think about this. In 2022, if an event does not appear on a social feed, it never really happened! Most of Wall Street has been blind-sided by social media’s troubles. With every passing year, digital advertising is near a point where the market is saturated.

Case in point: Facebook. This stock, under its new name Meta, traded at $175 during 2017. This past Friday, it closed at $160. Over the past five years it traded as high as $380. As we have learned this past year, market realities eventually trump technology.  (Note:  trump with a small ‘t’).

I have not spoken about Crypto in a few weeks, so here are some thoughts. If Bitcoin is crypto’s answer to gold, Ethereum is the closest thing it has to its own internet.  For example, any person who wants to mint a new token or spend $150,000 on a Bored Ape non-fungible token, or NFT, probably uses the Ethereum network.

As of today, more than $3 billion in transaction volume flows through Ethereum daily. About $60 billion in crypto assets sit on its blockchain through third-party apps.  Other than Bitcoin, there is no network that is more critical to crypto’s infrastructure going forward.

A stock I have owned, Nvidia, has been a casualty of a slowdown in hardware purchases. Recently, on the company’s last earnings call, it was stated that the stock has suffered from a slowdown in gaming and other core areas. It was also stated it could not predict how reduced crypto mining might hit demand for its products. 

All of this new technology is growing way too fast for me. I am still having trouble learning all of the features on my iPhone. 

With school classes resuming and the holidays fast approaching, here are thoughts on some retailing stocks. Target (tgt) looks to be a cheaper stock based on its P/E ratio than Walmart (wmt). There is a potential for 20% upside from its Friday close of $164.  It trades at less than 16X earnings, while Walmart trades at 22X earnings — a 33% discount. 

On the interest rate front, it looks like Chairman Powell will be calling for two more rate increases of 50 to 75 basis points each. Banks will be charging more for car, personal, business and mortgage loans, while paying little if any interest on your savings accounts. Hmm, not fair!!

Just a thought …With the President’s new plan on school loan forgiveness, would it not be a good idea to convert your 30-year mortgage to a school loan? Probably not legal, also just kidding! On a closing note, I just cannot wait for the IRS to put the 87,000 new inspectors to work. Have a great September.

Michael E. Russell retired after 40 years working for various Wall Street firms. All recommendations being made here are not guaranteed and may incur a loss of principal. The opinions and investment recommendations expressed in the column are the author’s own. TBR News Media does not endorse any specific investment advice and urges investors to consult with their financial advisor. 

METRO photo

By Michael Christodoulou

Michael Christodoulou
Michael Christodoulou

As an investor, your own decisions will be the biggest factor in your success. Nonetheless, you’ll always want to consider the potential power of external events. And today is no different — with the lingering effects of the pandemic, the geopolitical situation in Ukraine, the impact of inflation and the rise in interest rates, you might be grappling with feelings of uneasiness. How should you respond?

First of all, remember that the financial markets have shown great resilience through wars, recessions, natural disasters and political crises — events as serious as what’s going on now.

Nonetheless, you could still feel some discomfort when you’re bombarded by anxiety-producing news of the day. But you don’t have to go it alone. Many people have found support and guidance from a financial professional to be especially valuable in turbulent times. 

In fact, more than three-fourths of investors who work with a financial advisor are very or somewhat confident in their knowledge of the impact on the economy on their financial situations, according to a recent survey from Morning Consult, a research and data analysis company. By comparison, the same survey found that only about half of the adults in the general population have this degree of confidence.

Specifically, a financial professional can help you:

Reduce the tendency toward emotion-driven investing. It’s usually not a good idea to let emotions be a primary driver of your investment decisions. For example, if you let fear drive your choices, you could end up selling quality investments — ones that still have good prospects and are still suitable for your needs — when their prices have fallen, just to “cut losses.” A financial professional can help you make informed moves appropriate for your goals.

Put investment results in context. You may wonder why your investment portfolio’s performance doesn’t track that of a major index, such as the S&P 500. But if you maintain a diversified portfolio — and you should — you’ll own investments that fall outside any single index. So, instead of using an index as a benchmark, you should assess whether your portfolio’s performance is keeping you on track toward your individual goals. A financial professional can help you with this task and suggest appropriate changes if it appears you are falling behind.

Recognize investment trends and patterns. If you invest for several decades, you’ll likely see all kinds of event in the financial markets. You’ll see “corrections,” in which investment prices fall 10 percent or more in a short period of time, you’ll see “bear markets,” in which the downturn is even greater, and you’ll see bull markets, in which prices can rise, more or less steadily, for years at a time. A financial professional can help you recognize these trends and patterns — and this knowledge can make it much easier for you to maintain a long-term perspective, which lead to informed decision-making.

Gain feelings of control. Most important of all, a financial professional can enable you to gain a feeling of control over your future by helping you identify your important goals and recommending strategies for achieving them.

The world, and the financial markets, will always be full of events that can be unsettling to investors. But by getting the help you need, you can reduce the stress from your investment experience — and you’ll find it’s easier to keep moving in the direction you want to go.

Michael Christodoulou, ChFC®, AAMS®, CRPC®, CRPS® is a Financial Advisor for Edward Jones in Stony Brook. Member SIPC.

METRO photo

By Michael Christodoulou

Michael Christodoulou
Michael Christodoulou

Now that we’ve gained at least some space from the COVID-19 pandemic, summer travel is heating up. But while you might be eager to hit the road, you won’t want your investments to take a vacation — you need them to work hard for you consistently. But how can you make this happen? 

Here are some ideas:

Know your destination.“If you don’t know where you want to go, then it doesn’t matter which path you take.” This bit of wisdom, paraphrased from the classic children’s book, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, may be appropriate for, say, hikers exploring a new landscape. But as an investor, it matters a great deal which path you take. If you only dabble in investing, occasionally putting some money into one investment or another, it will be difficult to build a portfolio that’s consistently working in your best interest. It’s important to create a long-term investment strategy based on where you want to go in life — that is, how long you plan to work, what sort of retirement lifestyle you envision, and so on.

Match goals with investments. Some investments are designed to achieve certain goals. To illustrate: When you contribute to an IRA and a 401(k) or similar employer-sponsored plan, you’re investing for one specific, long-term goal: a comfortable retirement. While you can tap into these accounts for other purposes — though doing so might incur immediate taxes and penalties — they are designed to provide you with income during your retirement years. Similarly, you may have other investments for other purposes, such as a 529 education savings plan. Here’s the key point: Goals-based investing, by its nature, can help ensure your portfolio is always working on your behalf, in the way you intended.

Invest for growth. Ideally, hard work produces results, and one of the main results you want from your investments is growth — that is, you want your investments to appreciate in value so they can eventually help you meet your goals. But if you are overconcentrated in vehicles such as certificates of deposit (CDs) and government securities, you may end up lowering your growth potential. That’s not to say that CDs and Treasury bills are in some sense “lazy.” They can provide you with income and help you reduce the impact of market volatility on your portfolio. But to achieve most of your goals, you’ll need a reasonable number of growth-oriented investments working for you, with the exact percentage based on your needs and life stages.

Check your progress. How else can you ensure your investments aren’t just taking it easy? By checking up on them. If you follow a buy-and-hold strategy, your portfolio shouldn’t require many changes if it already reflects your goals, risk tolerance and time horizon. Too much buying and selling could jeopardize your ability to follow a consistent, long-term strategy. However, “buy and hold” doesn’t mean “buy and forget.” By reviewing your portfolio at least once a year, you can determine if your investments are performing as they should. If they’re not working for you as you’d like, you may need to make some changes.

If you’re traveling this summer, relax and enjoy yourself — but keep those investments working hard.

Michael Christodoulou, ChFC®, AAMS®, CRPC®, CRPS® is a Financial Advisor for Edward Jones in Stony Brook. Member SIPC.