Election News

Bob Doyle is looking to win a seat as a Smithtown councilman. Photo from Nicole Garguilo.

After an intense shake-up in the Smithtown Republican party last week, four GOP candidates for town council seats are now left standing. Newcomers Bob Doyle and Tom Lohmann, who both have no prior experience running for public office, are hoping to unseat incumbents Tom McCarthy and Lynne Nowick.

Doyle, a Nesconset resident, is a Vietnam Army veteran and retired Suffolk County homicide detective. He said he wants to bring strong leadership back to the town board.

“There is not an advancing agenda right now that will help this town to grow,” Doyle said in a phone interview. “I am looking to be that energy. I believe I can build a consensus and look beyond a political agenda.”

Doyle has a more than 35-year career in law enforcement, where he wore many hats and oversaw several different departments and programs. He said he wants to bring the same guidance he brought to the police department, where he helped bring many MS-13 gang members to justice, as well as other bank and commercial robbers.

“I created the Suffolk County liaison with the FBI that would become the first Suffolk County gang task force,” Doyle said. “It was extremely successful, and made for a tremendous amount of arrests that involved both gang members and seizing of drugs.”

Tom Lohmann wants to represent Smithtown as a councilman. Photo from Nicole Garguilo

After Doyle left the force in 2010 he started a consulting firm that works with police departments across New York State, introducing them to new technology devices to assist law enforcement, as well as training them in how to use it.

The retired officer is also a former Eagle Scout, and president of the Country Pointe Homeowners Association for about nine years. He said he’s proud of the work the board has done to protect and preserve clean groundwater for the residents.

“I am not looking for a career here — I’ve already had a full career and then some — I am looking to put my skills to use,” Doyle said. “I believe we’ve stagnated as a town.”

He said he wants to focus on the failing business districts in the different hamlets of Smithtown, as well as promoting the development of more sewer systems to help make it possible for more businesses and residential areas to lay down roots in Smithtown. He also said he wants to work on improving failing infrastructure, and communication between the town board and the school board.

Lohmann, a Smithtown native, is also looking to lend his experience in law enforcement to the citizens of the town. He started his career as a member of the New York Police Department, and spent more than 30 days working search and rescue at Ground Zero as a 9/11 responder. He retired from the NYPD in 2002, and now works as an investigator for the Suffolk County District Attorney’s Insurance Crimes Bureau and part-time as a Head of the Harbor police officer.

“I’d like to thank Bill Ellis and the Republican committee for having the trust in me to do the job and do the job right,” Lohmann said after receiving the nomination at the Smithtown Republican convention last week. “I’ve seen this town grow and I’ve seen change to this town in the last 10, 15 years that I personally haven’t been happy with. My venture into politics hasn’t come without a lot of soul searching. I’ve never backed away from a fight in my life, and I’m running because I think it is the right thing to do.”

According to Lohmann’s media relations team, he intends to resign from his current career if elected, and would treat the job as a full-time position. He wants to focus on uniting law enforcement and local coalitions to end the growing gang violence and substance abuse problems that are affecting towns across the North Shore, as well as repair parks, green spaces and infrastructure in the town.

New York State Assemblyman Chad Lupinacci is looking to become the town’s first Republican supervisor in two decades. Photo by Kevin Redding.

New York State Assemblyman Chad Lupinacci (R-Huntington Station), chosen May 30 as the Huntington Republican Committee’s candidate for town supervisor, had just 24 hours to decide if he wanted to commit to a bid for the coveted position, most recently held for two decades by Frank Petrone (D).

Lupinacci, 38, was approached by committee Chairwoman Toni Tepe to fill the party’s vacant candidate seat after Town Councilman Gene Cook (I), who announced his bid for the position May 21 and was on track to secure both Republican and Conservative support, suddenly dropped out.

But for the lifelong Huntington resident, business law and political science professor at Farmingdale State College and Hofstra University, respectively, and state lawmaker, currently serving his third term for the 10th district, it was an easy choice.

“When you’re in a position for a period of time you sometimes lose sight of what’s going on and what’s in tune with the people,” Lupinacci said, referring to Petrone’s 24 years as supervisor and the town’s need for new direction. “You become part of the system rather than actually being able to shake things up… I think I’ll be able to look at the job from a different vantage point, as someone with a different skill set and legislative accomplishments that we can bring home to Huntington.”

As an assemblyman, elected in 2012, Lupinacci serves as the ranking Republican member on the Assembly Committee on Higher Education, and sits on the Judiciary, Election Law, Transportation and Park and Tourism committees. For nine years, starting in 2004, he was a trustee on the South Huntington school board.

“He’s a stand up guy,” Andre Sorrentino, chief of the Huntington Fire Department and Lupinacci’s friend for more than 20 years, said. “He’s just one of those guys you can trust, he’s a great leader, and he understands that our first responders and police department mean a lot. He’s a very good man.”

The assemblyman will be facing off against Councilwoman Tracey Edwards (D) who announced her campaign last month. Sorrentino said he supports both candidates for the position.

Lupinacci said his experiences make him a stronger leader despite Edwards currently being more directly involved in the town’s government.

“I think I’ll be able to look at the job from a different vantage point, as someone with a different skill set and legislative accomplishments that we can bring home to Huntington.”

—Chad Lupinacci

“Tracey and I both are dedicated public servants, we both have that local level, being on the school board — she was on the Elwood school board, I was on South Huntington school board,” he said. “But I think the state experience gives me a different [array] of policy expertise, what kind of resources are out there we can bring home towards Huntington.”

Building off his initiatives in Albany, Lupinacci said his chief priorities as supervisor of Huntington would be to reverse a decline in quality of life and spend the town’s budget more wisely to avoid piercing the tax cap. “I wouldn’t have pierced the tax cap as the 2016 budget did,” he said.

Lupinacci said he wants to root out crime, especially MS-13-related incidents, through partnerships with local police and the federal government, and provide more treatment and aftercare programs for those addicted to heroin and prescription drugs. As assemblyman, he’s supported heroin legislation and was involved in the opening of a state-supported aftercare site in Hauppauge that aims to prevent relapses.

He said he also wants to create a robust agenda dealing with ethics reform and more transparency in government, adding there should be more flexibility with the board’s strict three-minute speaking cap during the public sessions. “If we’re representing 210,000 people, we want to give them the ability to voice concerns,” Lupinacci said.

Moving forward, he wants to bring in new jobs and make progress on revitalization efforts started in Huntington Station, which, he said, will help keep young people in the area.

“We want to make sure we create that safe environment because then people are going to want to stay here and raise families and that’s something that we want them to do,” he said. “When they graduate from school, or return home from college, we want to make sure that along the 110 corridor, we continue to bring the high-tech, high-paying jobs so people can afford to live [here]. We want to make sure there’s entertainment, restaurants, supermarkets, and that everything they need is within the township.”

When it comes to environmental initiatives, Lupinacci has supported water quality legislation and is adamant about preserving open space and maintaining the integrity of public parks, among other sections of Huntington. “We also have a huge fishing and boating community in the area, and we want to make sure we work with them to keep our pristine waters, so people always feel they always have great access to the waterscape we have here,” he said.

Born in Huntington Hospital and raised on 11th Avenue by a banker and a food industry worker, his father and mother respectively, Lupinacci graduated from Walt Whitman High School in the South Huntington School District and Hofstra University, where he received a Bachelor of Arts degree in political science.

He would go on to get his Juris Doctor at Hofstra University School of Law and Master of Business Administration at the Zarb School of Business at Hofstra University, but not before interning for the late Assemblyman James D. Conte (R), whom Lupinacci referred to as his mentor, and Hillary Clinton at the White House from 2000 to 2001, when she was First Lady.

When Conte was diagnosed with brain cancer and left his seat in 2012, Tepe called on Lupinacci, then in the middle of his third term on the school board, to be his replacement.

“I think he’s going to do quite well as supervisor,” Tepe, who was supervisor herself from 1988 to 1989, said. “Chad is a people-person and is interested in serving the public, working the taxpayer, and providing the programs and initiatives necessary to keep our town a vibrant suburban community. He’s also the type who isn’t afraid to tackle a problem.”

Lupinacci said he loves Huntington’s “welcoming perspective, no matter where you grew up, what your ethnicity is, or what religious background you are…this is a great community that has a lot of culture, a great nightlife, is rich in the arts, excellent school districts, beaches and waterfronts…you don’t have to leave this township because it has everything to offer.”

U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin, the incumbent, will continue to represent the 1st Congressional District. Photo by Alex Petroski

Results of the Nov. 8 election have America seeing red.

While President-elect Donald Trump (R) won the presidency with 279 Electoral College votes to Hillary Clinton’s (D) 228, many of the North Shore races produced Republican victories as well.

U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) was one of the Democrats who survived. He outscored his Republican challenger Wendy Long 59.94 to 38.26 percent, according to the Suffolk County Board of Elections. New York State Sens. Ken LaValle (R-Port Jefferson) and John Flanagan (R-East Northport) earned fresh terms, as the public reelected the incumbents.

“I am so gosh darn proud to be a Republican, to be here working with you,” Flanagan said. “Let’s keep pulling ahead.” He thanked everyone for joining him at Mirelle’s Restaurant in Westbury and congratulated his fellow local Republican politicians while the audience continued to cheer him on.

Assemblyman Andy Raia addresses the crowd. He will be entering his ninth term. Photo by Kevin Redding
Assemblyman Andy Raia addresses the crowd. He will be entering his ninth term. Photo by Kevin Redding

Flanagan won his race 63.57 percent to his Democratic challenger Peter Magistrale’s 32.46 percent. LaValle earned 67.18 percent of the vote to Democrat Gregory Fischer’s 32.73 percent.

U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley), another incumbent who kept a firm grasp on his seat, applauded his opponent following his victory.

“It’s an honor and a privilege to be able to represent the 1st Congressional District,” he said during his speech at The Emporium in Patchogue. “A powerful message was sent across New York.”

That message was the sea of red that swept across not only the state but also the nation.

“We are going to have a new president of the United States, and his name is Donald J. Trump,” Zeldin said prior to the national election results. “We’re going to make American great again.”

Zeldin defeated his Democratic challenger Anna Throne-Holst handily with 58.93 percent of the 1st district’s votes. The congressman also mentioned in his speech his desire to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.

Throne-Holst honored the results of the election and conceded the race.

“Suffolk County represents the very fabric of America, with hardworking men and women determined to support their families and build a democracy that moves our country forward and makes our communities stronger,” Throne-Holst said. “I’d like to thank everyone who has supported our campaign over the course of this incredible journey. It is our collective vision of a fair and unified America that will guide the road ahead and shape the future for our next generation.”

Throne-Holst said in a statement she will continue to fight for families and children in future pursuits, and added she is honored to have the faith and confidence of men and women throughout the 1st district.

“May we come together in the wake of this divisive campaign season,” Throne-Holst said, “to establish a more resilient country for us all.”

“It is our collective vision of a fair and unified America that will guide the road ahead and shape the future for our next generation.”

— Anna Throne-Holst

Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove), another Democrat who won a seat on election night, will succeed Rep. Steve Israel in the 3rd district. He fell short with Suffolk County voters, 48.27 percent to Republican challenger Jack Martins’ 51.68 percent, but when coupled with his Queens votes, he bested Martins 52 to 48 percent.

“This race has really been about the values my dad taught,” Suozzi said during his post-results speech at The Milleridge Inn in Jericho. “I’m going to need everyone in this room to help me because if I stick my head up and say something that’s not the normal thing to be said, they’re going to try and smack us down.”

He added regardless of the results of the presidential election, “we really need to do some soul searching.” He referenced figuring out what will happen with health care coverage, the shrinking middle class, immigration reform, climate chance, gun violence and the tax code. He added there’s more important work to be done.

“We have to figure out what’s going on in the country,” he said. “We need to figure out how to bring people back together again to work together.”

In local races for the State Assembly, incumbents continued to sweep the North Shore.

Steve Englebright (D-Setauket) edged his opponent 58.91 percent to 41.03 percent to continue representing the 4th district. His challenger, Steven Weissbard, called the assemblyman a “goliath,” and added, “If you want to win, you can’t be afraid to fight.”

Anna Throne-Holst, Democratic nominee for the 1st Congressional District, addresses the crowd following her loss on election night to incumbent Lee Zeldin. Photo by Lloyd Newman
Anna Throne-Holst, Democratic nominee for the 1st Congressional District, addresses the crowd following her loss on election night to incumbent Lee Zeldin. Photo by Lloyd Newman

Incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick (R-St. James) outscored Rich Macellaro 69.81 to 30.17 percent in the 8th district to earn his eighth term in the Assembly. Chad Lupinacci (R-Huntington Station) won the 10th district with 58.24 percent of the votes over Democrat Ed Perez for his fourth term, and Andy Raia (R-East Northport) will enter his ninth term in office after garnering 65.26 percent of voters’ support over Spencer Rumsey (D) in the 12th district.

“Chad and I — we do our thing, we go to Albany and beat our heads against the desk with the supermajority of New York City,” Raia said during his postelection speech at Huntington Station’s VFW Post 1469. “But we make sure that your voice is heard day in and day out, because you’re what it’s all about. You’re the reason we live out of a suitcase six months out of the year — because you’re the bread and butter of this.”

Robert Murphy (R) will continue to patrol the highways of Smithtown as its highway superintendent. He reigned over Justin Smiloff (D) with 69 percent of the votes.

Candidates on both sides viewed this election season as a turning point for the state and country.

“It’s not about us candidates, it is about all of you here together and fighting this good fight and wanting to make change, and wanting to make sure that we are representing the people that we know need good representation,” Throne-Holst said during her speech at the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 25 in Hauppauge. “We need to bear in mind that we are about unity. We are about moving forward. We are about public service. We are about the issues that matter.”

Her opponent expressed a similar sentiment.

“When we wake up tomorrow,” Zeldin said, “we have to come together.”

Rebecca Anzel, Victoria Espinoza, Donna Newman, Alex Petroski and Kevin Redding contributed reporting.

Check out #TBRVotes on Twitter for our reporters’ on-the-ground and up-to-the-minute coverage of tonight’s election results.

National Election

screen-shot-2016-11-09-at-4-41-14-pm

United States Senate

Chuck Schumer (D) v Wendy Long (R)
chuck-schumerwendy-long
      59.94%               38.26%

Following his victory, Sen. Chuck Schumer (R-NY) took to Twitter to express his reaction. “Humbled by the trust that my fellow New Yorkers have put in me to continue to do my job and represent them in the U.S. Senate. I promise to work every day to be deserving of your trust. I’ll never forget what it means that you gave me the honor of working for you.”

New York State Senate

1st District: Ken LaValle (R) v Gregory Fischer (D)
 ken-lavallegregory-fischer
      67.18%               32.73%
2nd District: John Flanagan (R) v Peter Magistrale (D) v Stephen Ruth (I) 
john-flanaganpeter-magistrale
     63.57%              32.46%

Congressional District

1st District: Lee Zeldin (R) v Anna Throne-Holst (D)
lee-zeldinanna-throne-holst
        56%                    39%
After incumbent U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) was officially declared the victor, he said, “We applaud our opponent. It’s an honor and a privilege to be able to represent the 1st congressional district.” He said while his victory is sweet, that New York is “powerful message.” He made reference to Donald Trump (R) being named president. If that were to happen, Zeldin said, “we are going to repeal and replace Obamacare. We’re going to make America great again.”
3rd District: Tom Suozzi (D) v Jack Martins (R)

tom-suozzijack-martins

          52%                        48%

Assembly

4th District: Steve Englebright (D) v Steven Weissbard (R)
steve-englebrightsteven-weissbard
      58.91%               41.03%
After hearing of the incumbent’s win, Steven Weissbard (R) said, “If you want to win, you can’t be afraid to fight. He called his opponent a “goliath.”
8th District: Mike Fitzpatrick (R) v Rich Macellaro (D)
mike-fitzpatrickrich-macellaro1
      69.81%               30.17%
10th District: Chad Lupinacci (R) v Ed Perez (D)
chad-lupinaccied-perez
      58.24%              41.71%
12th District: Andrew Raia (R) v Spencer Rumsey (D)

andrew-raiaspencer-rumsey

      65.26%              34.70%

Highway Superintendent

Smithtown: Robert Murphy (R) v Justin Smiloff (D)
robert-murphyjustin-smiloff
         69%                  30.96%

*All results are from the Suffolk County Board of Elections

Rich Macellaro, right, wants to unseat long term Assemblyman Mike Fitzpatrick, left. Photos by Donna Newman

Incumbent Assemblyman Mike Fitzpatrick (R-St. James) will square off against Kings Park resident and Democrat Rich Macellaro on Election Day for the right to oversee the district that spans Smithtown Town and a portion of northern Islip. Macellaro has made unsuccessful bids for office, first in the Assembly in 2010 then for a Smithtown Town board seat in 2013. The two sat down for an interview in the TBR News Media main office.

During his 14 years in the Assembly, Fitzpatrick has sponsored legislation to establish a two percent property tax levy increase cap for school districts and to cap pensions for elected officials as a means to stave off financial hardships for the state. Macellaro prided himself on his work with civic and community organizations and projects in Smithtown, and his ability to bring a new set of eyes to a district in need of change.

“There are some storm clouds on the horizon. The lack of jobs, the lack of housing — I think the stress that life on Long Island puts on people, on families, maybe people are using as an outlet.”

— Mike Fitzpatrick

High property taxes and swollen government budgets have contributed to a litany of issues specific to the 8th district, but also to the region as a whole, according to Fitzpatrick. Some of those issues include a cost of living far higher than most of the nation, and fewer high paying local careers as an incentive to keep young people  here after graduation. He also suggested the community’s high rates of opioid- and heroin-related deaths could be a byproduct of the tough economic times in his district.

“There are some storm clouds on the horizon,” Fitzpatrick said. “The lack of jobs, the lack of housing — I think the stress that life on Long Island puts on people, on families, maybe people are using as an outlet. Obviously they are.”

Fitzpatrick was also involved in the passing of a series of bills earlier this year designed to combat addiction on the North Shore and beyond. As a result, insurers must cover the costs of life-saving Narcan to families with individuals suffering from substance abuse. Substance abusers are now offered 72 hours of emergency treatment, instead of 48 hours, so they can be stabilized and connected to longer-term addiction treatment options while also balancing the individual rights of the incapacitated individuals, among other benefits.

Macellaro said he believes penalties for dealers could be harsher, though it is not the only possible solution to the problem.

“We need to have increased penalties for drug traffickers and dealers, and we also need to get those folks who, unfortunately, for whatever reason, become addicted to opiates — we need to get them immediate rehabilitative services.”

“The two percent tax cap is great because it forced government into reducing their costs. We have to do anything possible to prevent any increase in property taxes.”

— Rich Macellaro

The Assemblyman said he believes in the “invisible hand” as a means of economic development, meaning government policies cause more harm than good in the private sector, and called the statewide START-UP NY stimulus program a failure.

“Government-directed economic development does not work,” he said.

Macellaro has a different, if outside-the-box, plan for economic development through a measure that would lower property taxes.

“I think now is the time to look at how we rein in the cost of providing education in Suffolk County and Nassau County, of which there are 124 school districts,” he said. “There are 13 towns in Nassau and Suffolk — three in Nassau, 10 in Suffolk. My proposal is simple: one school district per town. So from 124 school districts, we’ll get down to around 13.”

He said the idea would allow districts to pay for services like maintenance, athletic fields, security and even administrators in “bulk.” He strongly supported legislation to cap increases to property taxes.

“The two percent tax cap is great because it forced government into reducing their costs,” he said. “We have to do anything possible to prevent any increase in property taxes.”

Democrat Peter Magistrale and State Sen. John Flanagan battle each other, and Independent Stephen Ruth for the right to represent the 2nd district Nov. 8. Photos by Desirée Keegan

St. James resident Peter Magistrale, 24, is taking his first swing at elected office, challenging New York State Sen. and Majority Leader John Flanagan (R-East Northport) to represent the 2nd district.

The candidates met and discussed why they think they could best represent their constituents at TBR News Media’s main office.

Magistrale (D) said he is running for office because he wants to tackle political corruption.

“I see government at all levels as a tool for powerful people to get what they want,” he said. Magistrale said he wants to focus on ways to reform campaign finance and laws to protect children in sexual abuse cases, among his other platform issues.

“I don’t believe in vigilantism. I don’t like red light cameras, and I voted against them.”

— John Flanagan

Flanagan said he’s proud to be the first majority leader from Suffolk County, and proud of the legislation he has helped pass, including a package of bills to combat the county’s opioid abuse problem and restoring funding taken from school districts by the Gap Elimination Adjustment. Flanagan has served in the New York Senate for 14 years, and before that served in the New York State Assembly for 16 years.

Part of Magistrale’s campaign has been dedicated to supporting the Child Victims Act, which is legislation that would eliminate both criminal and civil statutes of limitation for child sexual abuse, and provide a one-time, one-year window in the statute of limitations to enable victims whose claim was time-barred by the current arbitrary limitations to revive their claim.

“A child who’s sexually abused cannot come forward after they’ve turned 23,” Magistrale said. “That’s not protection. That’s protecting financial interests who do not want the law changed. To say that the current law protects children — it does not.”

Flanagan agreed this is a serious issue, but did not agree with how Magistrale wants to approach the issue.

“There are significant protections in the law right now,” he said. “This is a one-year opener that could bring cases going back 40, 50, 60 years. We have statutes of limitations for very cogent reasons and no matter how emotional a subject may be, witness availability, evidence, all those things have a salutary effect in terms of what happens.”

Stephen Ruth, referred to as the Red Light Robin Hood, is also running against the two candidates for the 2nd district seat, but did not respond to request for comment. Ruth is an outspoken critic against the red light camera program on Long Island and has been arrested for tampering with red light cameras.

“I don’t believe in vigilantism,” Flanagan said of Ruth’s actions. “I don’t like red light cameras, and I voted against them.” The state senator said that while this program was first suggested as a safety issue, it now seems like more of a measure to increase revenue.

Magistrale said he agreed with most of Flanagan’s sentiments.

“I think there is a good enough reason to look at if the red lights were shortened,” Magistrale said. “Shortening a yellow light is just as dangerous, and I think we ought to have an investigation to find out if they really were shorted or not.”

“A child who’s sexually abused cannot come forward after they’ve turned 23. That’s not protection. That’s protecting financial interests who do not want the law changed.”

— Peter Magistrale

The candidates found some common ground on education, and agreed the system is in need of improvement.

Magistrale said he believes Common Core has lost the consent of the citizens.

“We’ve had opt out rates, from grades three through eight, over 50 percent …what does that say?” Magistrale said. “Having standardized exams that reinforce memorization is not a way to create free thinkers. In a time in our history where crimes are being committed in the highest places of government, we need people who will ask questions, not be obedient.”

Flanagan said he’s had many hearings and meetings on the subject throughout the state.

“This is one subject area where I know more than frankly anybody in the Legislature,” he said. “I don’t like the exams … but all those tests are overwhelmingly mandated by the federal government.” Flanagan said despite the problems with Common Core, changes on the federal level need to be put in place to improve the current system, rather than tearing it down and starting over.

Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls at this point in the election cycle hardly guarantees victory. Image by Mike Sheinkopf

By Helmut Norpoth

Labor Day marks the unofficial end of summer and, in presidential election years, the traditional beginning of the general election campaign. At this juncture Nate Silver’s popular website, FiveThirtyEight, has all but anointed Democrat Hillary Clinton as the inevitable winner over Republican Donald Trump in November. The 538 forecast based on an aggregation of polls gives Clinton a 70 percent chance, give or take a point, to defeat Trump. It is a victory not only in the popular vote but also in the Electoral College. The polling averages produced by RealClearPolitics and The Huffington Post agree. They all have shown a Clinton lead for months, punctured only briefly when Trump clinched the GOP nomination in primaries or won it at the Republican National Convention. Polls are shining a bright light on Clinton’s prospects while casting a dark shadow on Trump’s. So it seems. How serious should we take these poll-driven forecasts?

By now we have lived with scientific polls in American presidential elections for 80 years. It started in 1936, when George Gallup conducted the first poll of a representative sample of American voters. For the record, he got it right that year. Few readers may be old enough to remember. Franklin Roosevelt was running in 1936 against … quick, who was the Republican opponent? OK, it was Alf Landon of Kansas. FDR led him in every poll conducted by Gallup and won in one of the biggest landslides — a great start. Gallup would not always be so lucky. In 1948, his polling consistently showed Republican Tom Dewey defeating Democrat Harry Truman, the incumbent president, who wound up with the victory on Election Day.

Back to Labor Day. At this point during the 2008 election cycle, Republican John McCain was ahead of Democrat Barack Obama 49 percent to 44 percent in the Gallup poll. Many probably don’t remember it. McCain’s lead was famously trumpeted as a “game change,” triggered by his choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate. The strong showing of the GOP ticket in the polls raised the hopes of the McCain camp for a victory in the November, while unnerving the Obama camp. Then the economy took a sudden nosedive as Lehman Brothers collapsed and Wall Street crashed. As the candidate of the White House party, on whose watch this calamity occurred, McCain saw his fortunes tank in the polls. It also did not help that Palin, his vice-presidential candidate, came across as clueless and tongue-tied on television in interviews with Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric. So, real-life events unfavorable to the White House party and missteps in the election campaign combined to reverse a lead in the polls that one side, McCain in this case, enjoyed at the beginning of the general election campaign. Lesson: Beware of pollsters bearing election forecasts eight weeks before Election Day.

Helmut Norpoth is a political science professor at Stony Brook University and has designed models to forecast elections in the U.S. and abroad. He will be contributing ongoing election analysis ahead of the 2016 election.

File photo

Though political fighting and manipulation of the media to wage a war may seem like a 21st-century concept, Clinton and Trump will not be breaking any ground this summer and fall when the mud inevitably continues to fly.

By Rich Acritelli

With the presidential election of 2016 upon this nation, it has been a hard fight between former United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and businessman Donald Trump. Today, Americans are watching these opponents utilize “mudslinging” and “deceitful” techniques to gain votes, but these tactics have been used almost from the start of this republic.

When President George Washington decided to retire after his second term, his vice president, John Adams, and the former secretary of state, Thomas Jefferson, ran for presidency in 1796. Both of these men liked each other personally, but detested each other politically. This was during the establishment of political parties between the Federalists (Adams) and Democratic-Republicans (Jefferson).

Alexander Hamilton was a dominant leader within the Federalist Party who believed Adams was not psychologically capable of being president. Hamilton urged Federalist politicians from South Carolina to withhold any votes that would help Adams win the election; Hamilton wanted Thomas Pinckney, a Federalist from that state, to become the next president. If Pinckney won, Hamilton estimated it was possible for Adams to gain enough support to be a runner-up as a vice president. Hamilton was unable to achieve this political scenario, and Adams won the election. Jefferson became his vice president from the rival Democratic-Republican Party.

Hamilton again threw his influence into the presidential election of 1800. Jefferson and Aaron Burr tied, and Congress decided the contest. Hamilton supported his chief opponent in Jefferson, due to his notions that Burr was a political tyrant, and motivated congressional leaders to vote for Jefferson to become the third president of the United States. This was also the last election that sought “a winner take all” process for the presidency and vice presidency. The government established the system of running mates elected together to represent either party in the White House after that.

In 1860, the country watched a junior politician in Abraham Lincoln seek the highest position in the land. He was a self-educated leader, a respected lawyer and a one-term representative in Congress. While he did not have the political clout of the other candidates, he served within the Illinois General Assembly. Although it is believed slavery was the cornerstone of his values, he pushed for revisions within the tariff, free labor, the Transcontinental Railroad and the Homestead Act of 1862. He ran against many strong Republicans, and while he defeated William Seward from New York, he later made his rival into a trusted member of his cabinet as secretary of state.

During his failed attempt to win a seat in the U.S. Senate against Stephen Douglas, Lincoln debated he would never support the expansion of slavery in the new states and territories. It was these property rights concerns that the southerner never forgot when Lincoln decided to run for the presidency. When he proved to be a serious candidate, Democratic newspapers that opposed the end of slavery, wrote that Lincoln was “semiliterate, ignorant, an uncultured buffoon, homely and awkward,” according to historian Doris Kearns Goodwin. Although Lincoln was perhaps our greatest leader, both Republicans and Democrats were highly unsure about his motives and abilities to lead the nation at the cusp of the Civil War.

Though political fighting and manipulation of the media to wage a war may seem like a 21st-century concept, Clinton and Trump will not be breaking any ground this summer and fall when the mud inevitably continues to fly.

Setauket native David Calone, left, barely trails former Southampton Town Supervisor Anna Throne-Holst, right, after Tuesday’s primary election. File photos

Waiting is the hardest part.

The Democratic primary to decide who will face freshman U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) in the race for the 1st Congressional District seat in November was June 28, but as of print time on Wednesday, Zeldin’s opponent was still a mystery.

The former town supervisor in Southampton Anna Throne-Holst led Setauket native and former prosecutor and venture capitalist David Calone by just 29 votes when the dust settled on election night. More than a week later, it’s still unclear who will come out on top.

There are about 1,800 absentee ballots that haven’t been counted — roughly 15 percent of the overall vote

The Suffolk County Board of Elections will begin counting the 1,794 absentee ballots cast on Thursday, though a department employee said that process might take several days. The absentee ballots will be counted by a bipartisan team of department employees in addition to representatives from both campaigns at the Board of Elections office in Yaphank.

In emailed statements from their campaigns, both candidates expressed confidence about what the tally will hold after all the votes are counted and thanked their supporters for their hard work to date.

“I’m proud to be in the lead after election night, and am most especially proud of the positive campaign we ran,” Throne-Holst said through a press representative. “I owe a heartfelt debt of gratitude to our thousands of supporters and volunteers, who are invaluable partners in getting our message to voters.”

Calone said he has high hopes thanks to the nearly nonexistent deficit.

“Given that there are about 1,800 absentee ballots that haven’t been counted — roughly 15 percent of the overall vote — no one knows who will end up on top until we count every vote,” Calone said in a statement. “More than anything, I’m grateful to Democrats around the district who volunteered to help my campaign.”

Neither candidate hesitated to turn their sites toward Zeldin.

“I expect to prevail once every vote is counted and I look forward to continuing our campaign to provide a strong contrast to Congressman Lee Zeldin, who is one of Donald Trump’s greatest advocates in Washington,” Calone said.

Throne-Holst also invoked presumptive Republican presidential nominee and businessman Donald Trump in referring to Zeldin.

“I look forward to working with Democrats throughout the district as we focus on our common goal of defeating Lee Zeldin,” she said. “We all know Lee Zeldin is not looking forward to going up against my record, and voters will reject not only his extremist views and votes, but also his enthusiastic embrace of Donald Trump, who is dangerous for both Long Island and the country.”

At the end of the night on June 28, unofficial results showed Throne-Holst with 5,446 votes — 50.09 percent of the vote — and Calone with 5,417 votes — 49.82 percent.

Zeldin unseated six-term former U.S. Rep. Tim Bishop (D) by a wide margin back in 2014, with a final vote total of 54 percent to 45 percent.

Check back next week for an update and results, should the counting be complete.

Photo by Alex Petroski Tom Suozzi speaks to voters. Photo by Alex Petroski.

Overall Suozzi earned 6,532 votes, Stern garnered 4,069 votes, Kaiman collected 4,060, Kaplan saw 2,815 and Clarke received 909

Former Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) came out on top after Tuesday’s Democratic primary, beating out four other candidates vying for the nomination in New York’s 3rd Congressional District.

After declaring victory, Suozzi was set to take on Republican state Sen. Jack Martins from Old Westbury in November for the seat of Rep. Steve Israel (D-Huntington). The former county executive and mayor of Glen Cove beat out Suffolk County Legislator Steve Stern (D-Dix Hills), former North Hempstead Town Supervisor Jon Kaiman (D-Great Neck), North Hempstead Town Councilwoman Anna Kaplan and attorney Jonathan Clarke Tuesday.

Israel announced back in January that he would not seek re-election after 15 years in Congress.

Overall Suozzi earned 6,532 votes, Stern garnered 4,069 votes, Kaiman collected 4,060, Kaplan saw 2,815 and Clarke received 909.

In Suffolk County alone, Stern took first with 2,540 votes, according to the Suffolk County Board of Elections unofficial results, and Suozzi came in second with 1,044 votes. But Suozzi took the lead in Nassau County and Queens, with 3,977 votes and 1,511 respectively, according to each area’s board of elections.

Suozzi said Wednesday morning that he is excited to continue to work for his constituents after the support they showed for him last night.

“I am so grateful and appreciative to the voters… for supporting me in the Democratic primary,” he said in a statement.  “It is clear the people in the district are looking for someone who has the ability to cut through the blame-game, finger-pointing and yelling that’s coming out of Washington these days. I look forward to meeting and talking to all of the voters and have a discussion with both sides on many of the issues to come up with solid solutions.”

Suozzi served as county executive of Nassau from 2002-09 and mayor of Glen Cove from 1994-2001, but has been out of politics for about six years. He is a certified public accountant and is currently of counsel to Harris Beach law firm in Uniondale. He lives in Glen Cove with his wife Helene and their three children. In his time in office, Suozzi said he fought to root out corruption in state politics and was named environmentalist of the year by the New York League of Conservation Voters, a statewide environmental organization.

Stern said although he didn’t win, he intends to stand behind Suozzi in the general election.

Suffolk County Legislator Steve Stern. File photo by Rohma Abbas
Suffolk County Legislator Steve Stern. File photo by Rohma Abbas

“I ran for Congress to stand up for a woman’s right to choose, protect our precious environment and to end the [National Rifle Association’s] grip on Congress,” Stern said in a statement. “While we did not prevail at the polls, the fight for these critical issues — and to make Congress work for New York’s middle-class families again — goes on. Now, it is time for everyone to unite behind our nominee to ensure that our Congressional seat stays Democratic in November.”

Stern was backed by Israel, and is in his sixth term as a Suffolk County legislator in the 16th Legislative District. He is the chairman of the county’s Veterans Committee and has worked on many projects to help increase the quality of life for veterans on the North Shore.

Kaiman echoed Stern’s sentiment to rally behind the Democratic nominee.

“[Tom Suozzi] will be a strong and successful candidate in November and an effective representative come next year when he takes his seat as United States Congressman for the 3rd Congressional District of New York,” he said in an email.

Kaplan and Clarke did not immediately return calls for comment.