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By Michael Christodoulou

Michael Christodoulou
Michael Christodoulou

The financial markets always go through periods of instability. And we may see more of that now, given concerns about tariffs, inflation and the economy. As an investor, how can you deal with this volatility?

Some investors try to take advantage of market ups and downs by attempting to follow the age-old advice to “buy low and sell high” — that is, they seek to buy stocks when they feel prices have bottomed out and they sell stocks when they think the market has reached a high point. In theory, this is a great idea, but in practice, it’s essentially impossible, because no one can really predict market highs and lows. 

Rather than trying to anticipate highs and lows, your best strategy for coping with the price fluctuations of the financial markets is to diversify your investment portfolio by owning a mix of stocks, bonds and other types of securities. Different types of financial assets can move in different directions at any given time — so, for example, stocks may be up while bonds are down, or vice versa. If you only owned one of these types of assets, and the market for that asset class was down, your portfolio could take a bigger hit than if you owned a variety of asset types.

And you can further diversify within individual asset categories. Stocks can be domestic or international, large-company or small-company — and these groupings can also move in different directions at the same time, depending on various market forces. As for bonds, they too don’t always move in a uniform direction, or at least with the same intensity — for instance, when interest rates rise, bond prices tend to fall, but longer-term bonds may fall more than shorter-term ones, which are closer to maturity with fewer interest payments remaining. Conversely, when rates are falling, longer-term bonds may be more attractive because they lock in higher yields for a longer time. Consequently, one diversification technique for bonds is to build a “ladder” containing bonds of varying maturities.

Some investments, by their nature, are already somewhat diversified. A mutual fund can contain dozens, or even hundreds, of stocks, or a mixture of stocks and bonds. And different mutual funds may have different investment objectives — some focus more on growth, while others are more income-oriented — so, further diversification can be achieved by owning a mix of funds.

Furthermore, some investors achieve even greater diversification by owning alternative investments, such as real estate, commodities and cryptocurrencies, although these vehicles themselves are often more volatile than those in more traditional investment categories. 

Financial companies have been designing newer securities which help lower the volatility within the security, while allowing the investor to have upside potential and significant monthly income.

While a diversified portfolio is important for every investor, your exact level of diversification — the percentages of your portfolio devoted to stocks, bonds and other securities — will depend on your individual risk tolerance, time horizon and financial goals. I highly recommend you consult with a financial professional about creating the diversified investment mix that’s right for your needs. The tools available today for investors have significantly changes to help manage the volatility. 

Ultimately, while diversification can’t guarantee profits or protect against all losses, it can help you reduce some of the risks associated with investing and better prepare you to deal with the inevitable volatility of the financial markets — two key benefits that can help you over the many years you’ll spend as an investor.

Michael Christodoulou, ChFC®, AAMS®, CRPC®, CRPS® is a Financial Advisor for Edward Jones in Stony Brook, Member SIPC

This article was written by Edward Jones for use by your local Edward Jones Financial Advisor.

 

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By Michael Christodoulou

You’ll find some big differences between traditional and speculative investments — and knowing these differences can matter a great deal when you’re trying to reach your financial goals.

To begin with, let’s look at the basic types of traditional and speculative investments. Traditional investments are those with which you’re probably already familiar: stocks, bonds, mutual funds, government securities, certificates of deposit (CDs) and so on. Speculative investments include cryptocurrencies, foreign currencies and precious metals such as gold, silver and copper.

Now, consider these three components of investing and how they differ between traditional and speculative investments:

The first issue to consider is risk. When you own stocks or stock-based mutual funds, the value of your investments will fluctuate. And bond prices will also move up and down, largely in response to changing interest rates. However, owning an array of stocks — small-company, large-company, international, etc. — can help reduce the impact of volatility on your stock portfolio. And owning a mix of short- and long-term bonds can help you defend yourself somewhat against interest-rate movements. 

When interest rates fall, you’ll still have your longer-term bonds, which generally — but not always – pay higher rates than short-term ones. And when interest rates rise, you can redeem your maturing short-term bonds at potentially higher rates.

With speculative investments, though, price movements can be extreme as well as rapid. During their short history, cryptocurrencies in particular have shown astonishingly fast moves up and down, resulting in huge gains followed by equally huge, or bigger, losses. The risk factor for crypto is exacerbated by its being largely unregulated, unlike with stocks and bonds, whose transactions are overseen by well-established regulatory agencies. There just isn’t much that investors can do to modulate the risk presented by crypto and some other speculative investments.

A second key difference between traditional and speculative investments is the time horizon involved. When you invest in stocks and other traditional investments, you ideally should be in it for the long term — it’s not a “get rich quick” strategy. But those who purchase speculative investments want, and expect, quick and sizable returns, despite the considerable risk involved.

A third difference between the two types of investments is the activity required by investors. When you’re a long-term investor in traditional investments, you may not have to do all that much once you’ve built a portfolio that’s appropriate for your risk tolerance, goals and time horizon. 

After that point, it’s mostly just a matter of monitoring your portfolio and making occasional moves — you’re not constantly buying and selling, or at least you shouldn’t be. But when you speculate in crypto or other instruments, you are constantly watching prices move — and then making your own moves in response. It’s an activity that requires considerable attention and effort.

One final thought: Not all speculative instruments are necessarily bad investments. Precious metals, for instance, are found in some traditional mutual funds, sometimes in the form of shares of mining companies. And even crypto may become more of a stable vehicle once additional regulation comes into play. 

But if you’re investing for long-term goals, such as a comfortable retirement — rather than speculating for thrills and quick gains, which may disappear just as quickly — you may want to give careful thought to the types of investments you pursue.

Michael Christodoulou, ChFC®, AAMS®, CRPC®, CRPS® is a Financial Advisor for Edward Jones in Stony Brook. Member SIPC.

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By Michael E. Russell

Michael E. Russell

Surprisingly the stock market has started off very strong. I wasn’t sure this would be the case. There are days when the market makes me feel like Fredo Corleone when he says to Michael that he is SMART, but apparently not so.

The S & P was up 6.5% in January with another 1.5% this past week. The NASDAQ is already up 11% for the year. Incredible! Almost all of the sectors that were crushed in 2022 have led this rally. Technology, financials, entertainment and commodities have recovered nicely. The groups that held up well in 2022 when the S & P fell more than 20% are all underperforming — consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare; these groups are all down approximately 3%.

There have been some crazy upward moves by many stocks. Tesla is up 85 points so far this year; NVDA up 68 points, year to date; Netflix up 72 points … I could go on. Viewers of CNBC have heard many analysts speak highly of NVDA. With the advance of artificial intelligence, this company seems to have found a special niche — a long-term holding.

The Federal Reserve raised rates by the expected 25 basis points. A day later, non-farm payrolls increased by 517,000. This was more than 2½ times the economists’ consensus forecast. The unemployment rate fell to less than 3.5%. This level has not been seen since the mid 1960s. Chairman Powell probably wishes he waited two more days before he announced the Federal Open Market Committee’s ¼% increase. The number would have been closer to ½%. I believe that we will see more rate hikes in the future.

I read some comments made by Warren Buffett’s vice chairman, 99 year-old Charlie Munger. Charlie has been an outspoken critic of bitcoin and all other unregulated digital tokens.  He wrote an article in the Wall Street Journal stating  “cryptocurrencies are a predatory scam targeting ordinary citizens.”  He further stated that “cryptocurrency is not a currency, not a commodity and not a security, instead it’s a gambling contract with a nearly 100% edge for the house.” He made a reference to the British Parliament’s passage of the Bubble Act in 1720. This Act banned trading speculative stock. I think Charlie was in the Parliament at the time of the vote!  Wow, 99 years old and still calling it correctly.

Speaking of surprises, Amazon officials have stated that they will probably have a loss this quarter. How can that be? There are 100 Amazon trucks a day in my neighborhood.

Interest rates have come into play. The 10 -year Treasury is yielding 3.5% while the one and two-year Treasury yield is 4.2%. This is called an inverted yield curve — short term rates yielding more than longer term rates. It does not pay to buy a long term bond while shorter duration bonds yield substantially more.

I try to end each article on a positive note but that is difficult this time. The Federal deficit has now reached a staggering 30 trillion dollars. You read that correctly, 30 trillion dollars. What this equates to is that every man, woman and child in this country are on the hook for $102,000 each. This number can only increase with the spending by the administration and congress. The madness must stop. Our elected officials don’t seem to care that we are reaching a point where this deficit cannot be repaid. We have been printing money with little thought as to how it gets paid back. Our Governor has proposed another $775 million dollars for Long Island schools. Where is the money coming from?  

Remember this article was written this past Sunday. A lot can happen in four days.  Did I just hear a balloon pop? No, a balloon was shot down. That will show them. In closing, I hope consumers are price shopping.  Gas prices vary as much as 80 cents a gallon.  Gouging? Probably. Cucumbers are 99 cents at one supermarket and $2 at another. Better cucumber? More importantly, happy hour prices at some local watering holes are all over the place. Please shop wisely. 

Michael E. Russell retired after 40 years working for various Wall Street firms. All recommendations being made here are not guaranteed and may incur a loss of principal. The opinions and investment recommendations expressed in the column are the author’s own. TBR News Media does not endorse any specific investment advice and urges investors to consult with their financial advisor. 

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By Michael Christodoulou

It’s unfortunate, but recessions are a fairly normal part of the economic landscape. When a recession occurs, how might you be affected? The answer depends on your individual situation, but regardless of your circumstances, you might want to consider the items in this recession survival checklist: 

Assess your income stability. If your employment remains steady, you may not have to do anything different during a recession. But if you think your income could be threatened or disrupted, you might want to consider joining the “gig economy” or looking for freelance or consulting opportunities. 

Review your spending. Look for ways to trim your spending, such as canceling subscription services you don’t use, eating out less often, and so on. 

Pay down your debts. Try to reduce your debts, especially those with high interest rates. 

Plan your emergency fund. If you haven’t already built one, try to create an emergency fund containing three to six months’ worth of living expenses, with the money kept in a liquid account. 

Review your protection plan. If your health or life insurance is tied to your work, a change in your employment status could jeopardize this coverage. Review all your options for replacing these types of protection. Also, look for ways to lower premiums on home or auto insurance, without significantly sacrificing coverage, to free up money that could be used for health/ life insurance. 

Keep your long-term goals in mind. Even if you adjust your portfolio during times of volatility, don’t lose sight of your long-term goals. Trying to “outsmart” the market with short-term strategies can often lead to missteps and missed opportunities.

Don’t stop investing. If you can afford it, try to continue investing. Coming out of a recession, stock prices tend to bottom out and then rebound, so if you had headed to the investment “sidelines,” you would have missed the opportunity to benefit from a market rally. 

Revisit your performance expectations. During a bear market, you will constantly be reminded of the decline of a particular market index, such as the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones Industrial Average. But instead of focusing on these short-term numbers, look instead at the long-term performance of your portfolio to determine if you’re still on track toward meeting your goals. 

Assess your risk tolerance. If you find yourself worrying excessively about declines in your investment statements, you may want to reevaluate your tolerance for risk. One’s risk tolerance can change over time — and it’s important you feel comfortable with the amount of risk you take when investing.

Keep diversifying. Diversification is always important for investors — by having a mix of stocks, mutual funds and bonds, you can reduce the impact of market volatility on your portfolio. To cite one example: Higher-quality bonds, such as Treasuries, often move in the opposite direction of stocks, so the presence of these bonds in your portfolio, if appropriate for your goals, can be valuable when market conditions are worsening. (Keep in mind, though, that diversification cannot guarantee profits or protect against all losses in a declining market.) 

A recession accompanied by a bear market is not pleasant. But by taking the appropriate steps, you can boost your chances of getting through a difficult period and staying on track toward your important financial goals.

Michael Christodoulou, ChFC®, AAMS®, CRPC®, CRPS® is a Financial Advisor for Edward Jones in Stony Brook. Member SIPC.

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By Michael E. Russell

Michael E. Russell

What we do know is that often, history repeats itself. We tell our children that they need to learn from their mistakes.  However, we never seem to follow our own advice. So where are we?

Trying to get a handle on how to manage our investments is proving to be difficult at best. The stock market is following every comment by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, hoping for a guiding light. 

This past Friday, stocks dropped after a strong opening despite a solid August payroll report. The report showed solid job growth, increasing labor force participation and slowing hourly wage increases. Perhaps this shows that inflation may have peaked. The report was positive enough to unlikely change monetary policy. In spite of this the S & P 500 Index still fell 1.1% with the Nasdaq Composite down 1.3%. This capped an awful August in which the S&P 500 fell more than 4%. That followed July’s 9% gain, the market’s most solid month in more than two years.

Okay folks, the lesson for today is which month to believe. Is this the start of a new bull market or is it a bear market rally?

Let’s talk about a sector of the market that is extremely perplexing. Social media is probably the most influential innovation of the 21st century. Think about this. In 2022, if an event does not appear on a social feed, it never really happened! Most of Wall Street has been blind-sided by social media’s troubles. With every passing year, digital advertising is near a point where the market is saturated.

Case in point: Facebook. This stock, under its new name Meta, traded at $175 during 2017. This past Friday, it closed at $160. Over the past five years it traded as high as $380. As we have learned this past year, market realities eventually trump technology.  (Note:  trump with a small ‘t’).

I have not spoken about Crypto in a few weeks, so here are some thoughts. If Bitcoin is crypto’s answer to gold, Ethereum is the closest thing it has to its own internet.  For example, any person who wants to mint a new token or spend $150,000 on a Bored Ape non-fungible token, or NFT, probably uses the Ethereum network.

As of today, more than $3 billion in transaction volume flows through Ethereum daily. About $60 billion in crypto assets sit on its blockchain through third-party apps.  Other than Bitcoin, there is no network that is more critical to crypto’s infrastructure going forward.

A stock I have owned, Nvidia, has been a casualty of a slowdown in hardware purchases. Recently, on the company’s last earnings call, it was stated that the stock has suffered from a slowdown in gaming and other core areas. It was also stated it could not predict how reduced crypto mining might hit demand for its products. 

All of this new technology is growing way too fast for me. I am still having trouble learning all of the features on my iPhone. 

With school classes resuming and the holidays fast approaching, here are thoughts on some retailing stocks. Target (tgt) looks to be a cheaper stock based on its P/E ratio than Walmart (wmt). There is a potential for 20% upside from its Friday close of $164.  It trades at less than 16X earnings, while Walmart trades at 22X earnings — a 33% discount. 

On the interest rate front, it looks like Chairman Powell will be calling for two more rate increases of 50 to 75 basis points each. Banks will be charging more for car, personal, business and mortgage loans, while paying little if any interest on your savings accounts. Hmm, not fair!!

Just a thought …With the President’s new plan on school loan forgiveness, would it not be a good idea to convert your 30-year mortgage to a school loan? Probably not legal, also just kidding! On a closing note, I just cannot wait for the IRS to put the 87,000 new inspectors to work. Have a great September.

Michael E. Russell retired after 40 years working for various Wall Street firms. All recommendations being made here are not guaranteed and may incur a loss of principal. The opinions and investment recommendations expressed in the column are the author’s own. TBR News Media does not endorse any specific investment advice and urges investors to consult with their financial advisor. 

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By Michael Christodoulou

Michael Christodoulou
Michael Christodoulou

As you know, the stock market has attracted a lot of attention — and for good reason, as we’ve seen considerable volatility almost from the beginning of the year. But if you own bonds, or bond-based mutual funds, you might also have some concerns. However, it’s important to understand why bonds should continue to be an important part of your portfolio.

To begin with, let’s look at what’s happened with bond prices recently. Inflation has heated up, leading the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to help “cool off” the economy. And rising interest rates typically raise bond yields — the total annual income that investors get from their “coupon” (interest) payments. Rising yields can cause a drop in the value of your existing bonds, because investors will want to buy the newly issued bonds that offer higher yields than yours.

And yet, despite this possible drop in their value, the bonds you own can still help you make progress toward your financial goals. Consider these benefits of bond ownership:

Income — No matter what happens to the value of your bonds, they will continue to provide you with income, in the form of interest payments, until they mature, provided the issuer doesn’t default — and defaults are generally unlikely with investment-grade bonds (those rated BBB or higher). Your interest payments will remain the same throughout the life of your bond, which can help you plan for your cash flow and spending.

Diversification — As you’ve probably heard, diversification is a key to successful investing. If you only owned one type of asset, such as growth stocks, and the stock market went into a decline, as has happened this year, your portfolio likely would have taken a big hit — even bigger than the one you may have experienced. But bond prices don’t always move in the same direction as stocks, so the presence of bonds in your portfolio — along with other investments, such as government securities and certificates of deposit — can help reduce the impact of volatility on your holdings. (Keep in mind, though, that by itself, diversification can’t guarantee profits or protect against all losses in a declining market.)

Reinvestment opportunities — As mentioned above, rising interest rates and higher yields may reduce the value of your current bonds, but this same development may also offer you some favorable reinvestment opportunities. If you own bonds of varying durations — short-, intermediate- and long-term — you should regularly have some bonds maturing. And in an environment such as the current one, you can reinvest the proceeds of your expiring short-term bonds into new ones issued at potentially higher interest rates. By doing so, you can potentially provide yourself with more income. Also, by owning a mix of bonds, you’ll still have the longer-term ones working for you, and these bonds typically (but not always) pay a higher interest rate than the shorter-term ones.

It might not feel pleasant to see the current value of your bonds drop. But if you’re not selling them before they mature, and you take advantage of the opportunities afforded by higher yields, you’ll find that owning bonds can still be a valuable part of your investment strategy.

Michael Christodoulou, ChFC®, AAMS®, CRPC®, CRPS® is a Financial Advisor for Edward Jones in Stony Brook. Member SIPC

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By Michael E. Russell

Michael E. Russell

My wife Barbara and I were lucky enough to spend the past week in Vermont. A respite like this gives one the chance to see what is occurring in the economy from a different perspective.

Sitting on the front porch in the morning I watched truckers hauling lumber and building supplies up and down the road. I decided to check out the nearby diner to hear what the local populace had to say. It sure sounded familiar: prices on the rise, shortage of employees and a real concern as to the direction the country was headed.

However, restaurants were full, many of whom were New Yorkers! Other tourists were taking in the beauty of southern Vermont.  So where are we?

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise short-term interest rates by three quarters of a percentage point later this month. This will lift the benchmark rate to approximately 2.5%. The probability of another one percentage point rate by the year’s end will hopefully cool down inflation which is approaching 9%.

The market has looked favorably on the current moves by the Federal Reserve that were done over the past two weeks. In the short-term there have been some widespread commodity-price declines and other signs of inflation slowing.

The bond market has responded in a positive way. The yield on the ten-year treasury has decreased by one quarter of a percentage point. It currently is at 3.1%, down from 3.1 in early June. This includes a 2% increase in the past week alone!

The S&P is currently projecting earnings for 2023 at under 16x earnings. The 2022 earnings is close to the same number. What this says is that the current 2022 projection on the earnings yield which equates to profits divided by the current index level is close to 6%, twice the ten-year treasury yield!

Looking at other indices is showing that that there may be opportunities in area other than the S&P 500, which most investors follow.

The S&P small cap 600 is currently priced at less than 12x estimated 2022 operating earnings. This a number that hasn’t been seen in a long time. This index and corresponding exchange traded funds may provide for portfolio growth.

As I have mentioned in past articles, the money center banks have provided dividend yields ins excess of 3%. These dividend yields have given support to their stock prices.  Bank of America, Goldman Sachs trade at near book value. Citigroup, which has improved its balance sheet by controlling expenses and increasing its net interest income, is trading at half its book value.

Even though short-term earnings are not looking robust due to a drop in mortgage origination fees and weaker investment banking opportunities, all dividends appear secure.

What is Warren Buffett up to? This week he added to holdings in Occidental Petroleum through Berkshire Hathaway. He now owns close to 20% of the company in a stake worth more than $20 billion.

By the way, Berkshire Hathaway is holding close to $100 billion in cash and cash derivates I expect Buffett to put several billion into picking up value stocks.  As an aside, the $100 billion in cash will give Buffett a profit in excess of $5 billion annually. NICE!!!

In summary, where are we? Not exactly sure. West Texas Crude Oil has dropped to $98 a barrel, some “experts” are projecting a drop to $65. We can only hope! Mortgage rates have dropped to 5.3% and the June jobs number beat expectations.

Boris Johnson is gone, Elon Musk says no to Twitter, Janet Yellen threatens China with sanctions, China threatens Taiwan, etc, etc. Now Monkey Pox!!! Can we just catch a break and enjoy the rest of the summer? Sure hope so. Until next time.

Michael E. Russell retired after 40 years working for various Wall Street firms. All recommendations being made here are not guaranteed and may incur a loss of principal. The opinions and investment recommendations expressed in the column are the author’s own. TBR News Media does not endorse any specific investment advice and urges investors to consult with their financial advisor. 

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By Michael E. Russell

Michael E. Russell

The S&P rebounded with the biggest weekly increase since February. There have been some encouraging signs, specifically, that the Omicron variant may have less severe symptoms than the Delta variant.

A major concern is growing inflation. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has radically changed his position on fiscal tightening. This is due to severe price increases that we have seen over the past 6 months.

This week, at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting, we will have a much clearer picture as to what the FED is thinking.

This past week all sectors of the market were higher. Tech and energy were the leaders, while discretionary and utilities did well also. These 2 sectors were up 2.5%

The U.S. Department of Labor reported initial jobless claims fell again. The numbers indicated almost full employment.

CPI data which measures the prices to consumers for goods is used as one measure of inflation.  November numbers indicate a 0.8% on top of a 0.9% advance in October.  These numbers are troublesome in that they are the highest in more than 40 years. For those of us that were around then, think about the years of the administration of Jimmy Carter. As a side note, I remember that the administration sold the Presidential yacht Sequoia for $60,000! I thought that the Treasury was down to its last $60,000.

What to expect for 2022

Wow! So many things to ponder. Putin-Ukraine, China-Taiwan, OPEC, Southern Border Immigration.

The energy sector will be one to focus on. Gas and oil prices are already up 50%.

Supply chain issues will still be in the forefront. Cargo ships are laying at or outside the port of Los Angeles; some have been there for more than 50 days.  A shortage of chips, meat prices up 30%, vegetables up 22%, etc. With all of this inflationary data, the stock market keeps going up. The reason for this is simple. TINA! — There is no alternative.

I am a staunch follower of Jim Cramer.  I closely monitor what the holdings are in his charitable trust. Here are some of my favorites: Abbot Labs, Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Chevron, Costco, Ford and Wells Fargo

Costco is a well run company, opening new facilities in France and China as well as 19 more in the U.S. As I mentioned before, containers destined for Costco are delayed for up to 2 months. If the supply chain issue is resolved, the earnings should be even more robust.

Ford should be looked  at also. Their truck division, specifically the all electric F150, should add to earnings.

To summarize, the stock market should continue to climb with 5-10% corrections interrupting its upward momentum. For those crypto currency followers, I would expect some government regulation to occur.

From my family to yours, we wish all a great holiday and a happy and healthy New Year!

Michael E. Russell retired after 40 years working for various Wall Street firms. All recommendations being made here are not guaranteed and may incur a loss of principal. The opinions and investment recommendations expressed in the column are the author’s own. TBR News Media does not endorse any specific investment advice and urges investors to consult with their financial advisor. 

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By Michael E. Russell

Michael E. Russell

To the readers who have missed the Investing 101 column by Ted Kaplan, I have spoken to his lovely wife Elizabeth and will try to follow in his footsteps.

To say that present times are challenging is an understatement. Supply chain issues, higher gas prices at the pump, heating oil and natural gas prices are expected to increase by 60% this season. We have seen shortages at the supermarket and shortages of corks for wine bottles!!! We have housing shortages, federal deficits approaching $25 trillion. We have an economy that is still robust with 10.2 million jobs unfilled.

The 10-year treasury is now at 1.62% and  analysts are expecting an increase to almost 3%. We have not seen rates this high in almost 12 years. A key measure of the bond market as quoted in The New York Times expects inflation to increase by 3% per annum over the next 10 years. It appears that the Federal Reserve will have to take major steps to halt this inflation creep.

In spite of these negative factors, investor’s wealth increased by $9.7 trillion, 23.5% for the year!

That being said, the University of Michigan’s survey stated that this has not trickled down to the average family. Their economic outlook shows the lowest confidence in the economy in more than 10 years. What this says is that employment is up, wages are up, but their income in real terms is down. The Consumer Price Index has jumped 0.9% in October, bringing the year-over-year increase to 6.2%. The most in more than 3 decades!

For many investors, according to Randall Forsyth of Barron’s, the growing concerns about rising prices and interest rates present a problem. In this scenario, bonds may not serve as a buffer in the classic 60/40 equities to bonds portfolio.

Morningstar is looking for a 7.5% gain in equities next year while analysts at Bank of America believe the S&P will be flat.

With all the potential negative news out there, I still believe there are stocks with solid dividends that have potential for growth.

A conservative play is New York Community Bank, NYCB. This bank has over 1200 branches with a dividend of 6%.

I believe that the major energy suppliers are attractive at these levels. Energy demand is high and will continue to be so.  ExxonMobil, XOM, is currently trading at $63. This is 25% below its 5 year high. It is paying a 5.5% dividend.

In closing, let me wish everyone a healthy holiday season.

Michael E. Russell retired after 40 years working for various Wall Street firms. All recommendations being made here are not guaranteed and may incur a loss of principal. The opinions and investment recommendations expressed in the column are the author’s own. TBR News Media does not endorse any specific investment advice and urges investors to consult with their financial advisor. 

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By Michael Christodoulou

Michael ChristodoulouIf you’ve been investing for many years and you’ve owned bonds, you’ve seen some pretty big changes on your financial statements. 

In 2000, the average yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury security was about 6%; in 2010, it had dropped to slightly over 3%, and for most of 2020, it was less than 1%. That’s an enormous difference, and it may lead you to this question: With yields so low on bonds, why should you even consider them?

Of course, while the 10-year Treasury note is an important benchmark, it doesn’t represent the returns on any bonds you could purchase. Typically, longer-term bonds, such as those that mature in 20 or 30 years, pay higher rates to account for inflation and to reward you for locking up your money for many years. But the same downward trend can be seen in these longer-term bonds, too — in 2020, the average 30-year Treasury bond yield was only slightly above 1.5%.

Among other things, these numbers mean that investors of 10 or 20 years ago could have gotten some reasonably good income from investment-grade bonds. But today, the picture is different. (Higher-yield bonds, sometimes known as “junk” bonds, can offer more income but carry a higher risk of default.)

Nonetheless, while rates are low now, you may be able to employ a strategy that can help you in any interest-rate environment. You can build a bond “ladder” of individual bonds that mature on different dates. When market interest rates are low, you’ll still have your longer-term bonds earning higher yields (and long-term yields, while fluctuating, are expected to rise in the future). When interest rates rise, your maturing bonds can be reinvested at these new, higher levels. Be sure you evaluate whether a bond ladder and the securities held within it are consistent with your investment objectives, risk tolerance and financial circumstances.

Furthermore, bonds can provide you with other benefits. For one thing, they can help diversify your portfolio, especially if it’s heavily weighted toward stocks. Also, stock and bond prices often (although not always) move in opposite directions, so if the stock market goes through a down period, the value of your bonds may rise. And bonds are usually less volatile than stocks, so they can have a “calming” effect on your portfolio. Plus, if you hold your bonds until maturity, you will get your entire principal back (providing the bond issuer doesn’t default, which is generally unlikely if you own investment-grade bonds), so bond ownership gives you a chance to preserve capital while still investing.

But if the primary reason you have owned bonds is because of the income they offer, you may have to look elsewhere during periods of ultra-low interest rates. For example, you could invest in dividend-paying stocks. Some stocks have long track records of increasing dividends, year after year, giving you a potential source of rising income. (Keep in mind, though, that dividends can be increased, decreased or eliminated at any time.) Be aware, though, that stocks are subject to greater risks and market movements than bonds.

Ultimately, while bonds may not provide the income they did a few years ago, they can have a place in a long-term investment strategy. Consider how they might fit into yours.

Michael Christodoulou, ChFC®, AAMS®, CRPC®, CRPS® is a Financial Advisor for Edward Jones in Stony Brook. Member SIPC.

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