For the first time since June 12, Suffolk County reported no deaths from COVID-19.
“I do hope and pray that it will not be another 17 days for me to be reporting zero deaths again,” County Executive Steve Bellone (D) said on his daily call with reporters. “Hopefully, this is the start of something we will continue to see.”
The total number of deaths from the virus in the county remained at 1,979.
The number of positive tests, meanwhile, was 33, bringing the total to 41,339. With 4,481 people receiving tests in the past day, the positive tests were among the lowest the county has had in weeks, at 0.7 percent.
The number of people who tested positive for the antibody who didn’t have a positive COVID-19 test was 19,074.
Hospitalizations continued to trend slightly lower. The number of people in the hospital overall fell by three to 72. The number of people in Intensive Care Units with COVID-19 also declined by three to 23.
Hospital bed occupancy was at 68 percent, down from 70 percent the day before. ICU bed occupancy was at 62 percent.
An additional 20 people were discharged from the hospital in the last day.
Separately, the county announced a plan, starting today, to walk back some protective measures put in place for Suffolk County Transit. In March, the county asked residents to use fast fare. Busses did not take cash, riders had to board from the back of the bus, and residents needed to leave the first few rows of the bus vacant to protect drivers.
Now that the county is in Phase 3, Suffolk County Transit has re-instituted front door boarding and will accept cash, even as it is encouraging riders to use the mobile app.
The county has provided protective barriers on all busses to keep the drivers safe from infection. Riders are still required to wear face coverings until further notice.
Finally, officers in the Third Precinct arrested Pablo Figuero, a convicted sex offender, last night at 10:20 pm. He was found in a parked car on Suffolk Avenue in Central Islip and was charged with Criminal Possession of a Controlled Substance in the 7th Degree. He was taken for arraignment today and will be held in jail. Bellone said he is wanted out of New Mexico.
Suffolk County continued to keep viral numbers low. The number of new cases in the last day was 53, bringing the total since the beginning of the COViD-19 epidemic to 41,306.
The number of people who have tested positive for the antibody was 18,970.
The hospitalization figures remained relatively flat. In hospitalizations as a whole, two people left the hospital. The total stands at 75.
The number of people in the Intensive Care Unit with the virus was 26, which is an increase of 1.
An additional 10 people were discharged from the hospital.
Capacity remained at safe levels, with hospital occupancy at 70 percent and ICU bed capacity at 63 percent.
One person died in the last day, bringing that total to 1,979.
At the beginning of this month, the North Atlantic started its annual hurricane season that will extend through the end of November.
Each year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration offers a forecast in May for the coming season. This year, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center anticipates a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season. The Center anticipates 13 to 19 storms, although that number doesn’t indicate how many storms will make landfall.
These predictions have become the crystal ball through which forecasters and city planners prepare for a season that involves tracking disturbances that typically begin off the West coast of Africa and pick up energy and size as they travel west across the Atlantic towards Central America. While some storms travel back out to sea, others threaten landfall by moving up the Gulf Coast or along Atlantic Seaboard of the United States.
Kevin Reed, an Associate Professor at Stony Brook University’s School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, and Alyssa Stansfield, a graduate student in his lab, recently predicted the likely amount of rainfall from tropical cyclones.
Alyssa Stansfield at the 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology in 2018. Photo by Arianna Varuolo-Clarke
Using climate change projection simulations, Reed and Stansfield came up with a good-news, bad-news scenario for the years 2070 through 2100. The good news in research they published in Geophysical Research Letters is they anticipate fewer hurricanes.
The bad news? The storms will likely have higher amounts of rain, with increased rain per hour.
“If you focus on storms that make landfall over the Eastern United States, they are more impactful from a rainfall standpoint,” Reed said. “The amount of rainfall per hour and the rainfall impact per year is expected to increase significantly in the future.”
In total, the amount of rainfall will be less because of the lower number of storms, although the intensity and overall precipitation will be sufficient to cause damaging rains and flooding.
Warmer oceans and the air above them will drive the increased rainfall, as these storms pass over higher sea surface temperatures where they can gain energy. Warmer, moist air gives the hurricanes more moisture to work with and therefore more potential rainfall.
“As the air gets warmer, it can hold more water in it,” Stansfield said. “There’s more potential rain in the air for the hurricanes before they make landfall.”
Stansfield said the predictions are consistent with what climatologists would expect, reflecting how the models line up with the theory behind them. She explored how climate change affects the size of storms in this paper, but she wants to do more research looking at hurricane size in the future.
“If hurricanes are larger, they will drop rainfall over a larger area,” which could increase the range of area over which policy makers might need to prepare for potential damage from flooding and high winds, Stansfield said.
While her models suggest that storms will be larger, she cautioned that the field hasn’t reached a consensus about the size of future storms. As for areas where there is greater consensus, such as the increased rainfall their models predict for storms at the end of the century, Stansfield suggested that the confidence in the community about their forecasts, which use different climate models, is becoming “more apparent as more modeling groups reach the same conclusion.”
Alyssa Stansfield at Sequoia National Park in 2018. Photo by Jess Stansfield
In explaining the expectations for higher rainfall in future storms, Reed said that even storms that had the same intensity as current hurricanes would have an increase in precipitation because of the availability of more moisture at the surface.
While storms in recent years, such as Hurricanes Harvey, Florence and Dorian dumped considerable rain in their path because they moved more slowly, effectively dumping rain over a longer period of time in any one area, it’s “unclear” whether future storms would move more slowly or stall over land.
Several factors might contribute to a decrease in the number of storms. For starters, an increase in wind sheer could disrupt the formation of some storms. Vertical wind sheer is caused when wind speed and direction changes with increasing altitude. Pre-hurricane conditions may also change due to internal variability and the randomness of the atmosphere, according to Reed.
Reed said the team chose to use climate models to make predictions for the end of the century because it is common in climate science for comparison to the recent historical record. They also used a 30 year period to limit some of the uncertainty due to internal variability of weather systems.
Stansfield, who is in her third year of graduate school and anticipates spending another two years at Stony Brook University before defending her graduate thesis, said she became interested in studying hurricanes in part because of the effects of Superstorm Sandy in 2012.
Alyssa Stansfield at Yosemite in 2019. Photo by Kathy Stansfield
When she was younger, she and her father Greg used to go to the beach when a hurricane passed hundreds of miles off the coast, where she would see the impact of the storm in larger waves. At some point, she would like to fly in a hurricane hunter plane, traveling directly into a storm to track its speed and direction.
Stansfield said one of the more common misconceptions about hurricanes is that the category somehow determines their destructive power. Indeed, Superstorm Sandy was a Category 1 hurricane when it hit New York and yet it caused $65 billion in damage, making it the 4th costliest hurricane in the United States, according to the NOAA.
After Stansfield earns her PhD, she said she wants to continue studying hurricanes. One question that she’d like to address at some point is why there are between 80 to 90 hurricanes around the world each year. This has been the case for about 50 years, since satellite records began.
“That’s consistent every year,” she said. “We don’t know why that’s the number. There’s no theory behind it.” She suggested that was a “central question” that is unanswered in her field.
Understanding what controls the number of hurricanes will inform predictions about how that number will change in response to climate change.
County Executive Steve Bellone (D) reminded Suffolk County residents as they grapple with the mental health toll from the public health and economic crisis of the services that can help.
Residents can reach out to the Family Services League at FSL-LI.com. They can also call a hotline that is available 24 hours a day and seven days a week at (631) 952-3333.
Residents who know people who are struggling with their mental health or substance abuse that are exacerbated by COVID-19 should reach out to these services, Bellone urged.
As for the viral data, the numbers continued to move in a favorable direction for a region that is still recovering from the virus.
Over the last 24 hours, an additional 45 people tested positive, bringing the total to 41,253. These positive tests represented less than a percent of the total tests.
An additional 18,816 people tested positive for antibodies.
Hospitalizations remained steady, with one person leaving the Intensive Care Unit, bringing that total to 25.
Hospital occupancy was at 70 percent, while ICU occupancy was at 60 percent.
An additional three people died in the last 24 hours, bringing the total for the region to 1,978.
The county distributed 20,000 pieces of personal protective equipment in the last day.
As the number of COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations in other parts of the country, such as Florida and Texas, surge to levels that put a strain on the health care system, County Executive Steve Bellone (D) appreciates the difficult and hard-fought effort that has put the county on the other side of the deadly viral curve.
“The numbers that we have right now relative to where we’ve been… are really outstanding,” Bellone said on his daily conference call with reporters.
Bellone empathized with the challenges other states and counties faced.
“To see it happening to other places around the country, it’s a terrible thing,” Bellone said.
Bellone urged residents to follow the same “common sense” things they have been doing, including wearing face coverings when they can’t socially distance, staying home when they’re not feeling well and washing their hands and using hand sanitizer.
Indeed, the numbers for the county continued to be well within the limits, even as the county entered the third day of the Phase 3 reopening.
An additional 57 people tested positive for the coronavirus, bringing the total to 41,208 since the pandemic started. The total number of tests administered in the county was 5,076, which means positive tests were around 1.1 percent.
The number of people who tested positive for the antibody, who didn’t have a previous COVID-19 test, was 18,669.
Hospitalizations declined by eight to 77. The number of people in the Intensive Care Unit increased by one to 26.
Hospital capacity was at 68 percent overall and 58 percent in the ICU.
An additional 10 people were discharged from the hospitals.
One person died in the last 24 hours, bringing the total killed from complications related to COVID-19 to 1,975.
The county distributed 12,000 pieces of personal protective equipment over the last day.
Bellone urged residents to participate in the Veteran Run Series, which has raised about $1 million this year. The third race, the Michael P. Murphy run around the lake, is this Saturday Residents interested in running can register at sufflkcountyveteransrunseries.com.
County Executive Steve Bellone (D) was pleased that the county legislature passed the Child Protective Transformation Act this week.
Created after the death of eight-year old Thomas Valva, who died in his father’s garage from hypothermia, the package of six bills creates new measures to strengthen the child protective system, the improve oversight and to institute safeguards to protect children.
“This will ensure that [Child Protective Services] never operates the same way again,” Bellone said on his daily conference call with reporters. “What happened to Thomas Valva can never happen again.”
The transformation act, which passed in the legislature June 23, puts in place measures to make sure the CPS is operating as efficiently and effectively as possible, Bellone suggested.
Bellone thanked Suffolk County Legislator Kara Hahn (D-Setauket), Deputy County Executive Jon Kaiman and Deborah Thivierge, the Founder of the Elija School and the Elija farm for their help in this effort.
As for the viral figures, the numbers continue to remain within a safe range for the county.
The number of people who tested positive for COVID-19 in the last 24 hours was 50, bringing the total to 41,151. The percentage of people who tested positive for the coronavirus was 0.9 percent.
The number of people with the antibody to the virus stands at 18,513.
Hospitalizations declined by three to 85, while the number of people in Intensive Care Unit beds declined by one to 25.
Hospital occupancy overall was at 69 percent, while the percent of occupied ICU beds was at 59 percent.
In the last day, 14 people have been discharged from hospitals in the county.
The number of deaths from complications related to COVID-19 increased by 2 to 1,974.
The county distributed 25,000 pieces of personal protective equipment in the last day.
Separately, the county is canceling the movies scheduled for the rest of this week because of a problem with the equipment that needs repair. The county hopes to have those movies back up and running by next week.
This generation of college students have dealt with numerous shocks in their short lives. Most of them were born around the time of the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center. That event triggered several battles on foreign soil, led to the Department of Homeland Security, and created a world in which people took off their shoes at the airport and passed through metal detectors on the way in to concerts and sporting events.
As if that weren’t enough, this generation then had to deal with the 2008 financial crisis, when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt and when life, for many, became considerably more challenging amid a painful decline in the subprime housing market.
Through their upbringing, they also heard about mass shootings, some of which occurred at school. They practiced shelter-in-place and had nightmares about killers roaming the same hallways where artwork depicting students’ families and the alphabet adorned the walls.
The contentious 2016 presidential election brought two largely unpopular choices onto center stage. After a bitter election fight, the country didn’t have much time to heal, as the Democrats and Republicans transformed into the Montagues and Capulets.
Indeed, while each side dug in deeply, their respective media supporters expressed nonstop outrage and acted dumbfounded by the misdirection and apparent idiocy of the leaders and their minions across the aisle.
Then 2020 happened. The virus has killed over 120,000 Americans, crippled economies, led to mass layoffs and unemployment and turned the hug and the handshake into bygone gestures from six months ago that somehow seem even longer ago. With the killing of Minneapolis resident George Floyd, many protesters weathered the viral storm that had kept them inside for months to express outrage at a system where equal protection under the law seemed like a distant ideal.
Now, these same students face the possibility of returning to school. Some colleges have told their students to return earlier than normal, to forego visits to friend’s dorms, and to wear masks and social distance.
It seems likely that many of these colleges’ students, who have a familiar youth-inspired independent streak, will defy these new rules, much the same way many in the general public, including President Donald Trump (R), shun the idea of wearing masks.
IfI were running a college, and I’m glad I’m not because I’m struggling to provide soundadvice to two teenagers, I would triple and quadruple my medical staff. I would urge regular testing and I would make sure my college had the best possible treatments and plans ready.
Fortunately, the treatments for the virus have improved from the beginning, as the medical community has raced to provide relief to those battling draining and debilitating symptoms that have lasted for weeks or even months.
When people do contract the virus, as they inevitably will at some of these schools, I would urge students to rally around each other, their professors and anyone else who contracted COVID-19.
Unfortunately, this generation has had to grow up rapidly, to see ways each of them can play a role in helping each other. Students may not only become involved in the standard blood drives; they may urge their peers to check for antibodies and to donate convalescent plasma, which may help save lives and ameliorate the worst of the viral symptoms.
The modern college student doesn’t have to look to distant shores to find people overwhelmed and in need of their youthful energy and good intentions.
Many college students want to be relevant and contribute. They can and will have ample opportunities, with their antibodies, with their understanding and empathy, and with their ongoing resilience in the face of a lifetime of challenges.
Suffolk County has moved to Phase 3 of its economic reopening following a prolonged lockdown from COVID-19, as restaurants can offer limited seating dining and nail salons and tattoo parlors can reopen.
Additionally, the number of people that can gather together increased to 25 from 10.
For personal care and indoor dining, the maximum capacity is half of the pre-viral levels. Employees must be tested every two weeks at these establishments.
“It’s another huge step for all of us,” County Executive Steve Bellone (D) said on his daily conference call with reporters.
The viral numbers in the county continued to remain well below guidelines and limits.
The number of people testing positive for the virus was 45, bringing the total to 41,101.
The number of people hospitalized with the coronavirus declined by one through the 24 hour period ending on June 22, bringing that total to 88.
The number of people in the Intensive Care Unit with complications related to the virus decreased by two to 26.
The percent of hospital beds occupied was 64, while the percent of ICU beds in use was 60 percent.
The number of people who died from complications related to COVID-19 increased by two to 1,972.
Suffolk County distributed an additional 15,000 personal protective equipment in the last day, with much of that going to the police department and nursing homes.
Separately, Suffolk County is continuing its movie series, which kicked off this past weekend with the showing of “Jaws” on the 45th anniversary of the shark film’s debut.
Reservations are open starting today for “ET The Extra-Terrestrial,” which will be shown next Wednesday, July 1. Upcoming movies include “Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory” and “The Addams Family.”
After Governor Andrew Cuomo (D) indicated recently that Phase 4 reopening would exclude malls, movie theaters and gyms, Bellone said he is continuing to communicate with the state about these limits.
Bellone said he believes malls “can reopen with a limited capacity and requiring face coverings.” After looking at the Phase 3 data, he expects the state may reevaluate those guidelines to see what else can be reopened.
Officials celebrate the installation of a denitrifying septic system in Nesconset in 2015. Photo from Bellone’s office
County Executive Steve Bellone (D) has made two proposals to the legislators that he believes will protect taxpayers and environmental programs in the wake of the economic effects of COVID-19.
He would like to use two existing tax stabilization funds to mitigate the budgetary impact of the virus.
These proposals, which he would like to add as a referendum for voters in November, would “protect taxpayers and essential employees and 100 percent protect environmental programs,” Bellone said on his daily conference call with reporters. “Any legislator who votes no on this legislation is only making layoffs more likely to occur.”
He urged legislators to give taxpayers the option of voting for these proposals, which he suggests will protect taxpayers, employees and environmental programs.
In addition, Bellone said he appreciated the efforts of U.S. Reps Tom Suozzi (D-NY-3) and Lee Zeldin (R-NY-1) to reverse the effect of an Internal Revenue Service ruling that taxes homeowners who participate in a septic improvement program, which was designed to protect Suffolk County’s waterways.
Suffolk County residents “care about clean water,” Bellone said. “These individuals should not be liable to pay taxes on grant money that never even touches their hands.”
The county executive applauded people who move beyond earlier versions of wastewater treatment systems, which, he said, “degraded” water quality and represented a mounting threat.
Separately, the county has no plans to provide any fireworks for the 4th of July celebration. Belone said some local municipalities have considered such an option.
Amid concerns about the illegal use of fireworks, Suffolk County Police Commissioner Geraldine Hart said the police have made two arrests to date and will be providing a public service announcement regarding fireworks and the dangers involved.
Residents who see or hear illegal fireworks, which can lead to injuries, fires or cause other damage, can call crime stoppers at (800) 220-TIPS.
“We want people to enjoy themselves,” Bellone said. “These fireworks are dangerous. The best thing you can do is to leave fireworks to the experts.”
As the county prepares to move into Phase 3 of its reopening tomorrow, Bellone called the continued reopening, which is occurring two weeks after the start of Phase 2, a “big milestone for us.”
Bellone will continue to monitor the viral figures that come out of upstate New York, where several counties are entering phase 4, to get an indication of whether the next phase of reopening could begin two weeks from now.
Viral Numbers
Even as other states, such as Florida, Texas and Arizona are encountering a surge in cases and hospitalizations, Suffolk County continues to move down the infection curve.
In the last 24 hours, an additional 46 people have tested positive for the coronavirus. That is a positive rate of 1.3 percent among those tested, which is above recent trends but still well below rates during the worst of the pandemic on Long Island. The number of people who have tested positive for the virus is now 41,056.
The number of people who have tested positive for antibodies to the virus stands at 18,188. These are people who didn’t have a COVID-19 positive result, but whose bodies have produced antibodies.
Hospitalizations declined by one to 89. People with COVID-19 in the Intensive Care Unit increased by one to 28.
Hospital capacity remained well below guidelines, with hospital beds and ICU beds at 63 percent and 60 percent capacity, respectively.
An additional six people were discharged from the hospital over the previous day.
Meanwhile, the number of people who died from complications related to COVID-19 increased by five to 1,970. During each of the previous four days, one person died each day from the virus.
The county distributed 4,000 pieces of personal protective equipment over the previous day.
Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone. File photo by Alex Petroski
In response to the ongoing need to close a revenue shortfall caused by the economic lockdown during the pandemic, County Executive Steve Bellone (D) is signing an order today freezing all steps and raises for management and exempt employees through 2021.
“It’s important that we move forward in a way that we’re doing the lowest-hanging fruit possible,” Bellone said on his daily conference call with reporters.
The move will save the county an estimated $3.4 million and is a part of an ongoing effort to prepare for a budget shortfall in the next three months that could be as high as $829 million.
“We are analyzing additional cuts in our department right now,” Bellone said. “In light of the catastrophic budget numbers we are talking about, it’s important that we make clear we are willing to take these steps.”
Bellone reiterated his call for the federal government to provide $1 billion in relief to Suffolk County, which stood at the epicenter of the pandemic and which shut down its businesses in response to guidelines from the federal government. Bellone urged the national government to provide financial support that would also support infrastructure projects as well as small businesses.
“I’ve been in public life for more than 20 years,” Bellone said, and the federal government has been talking about making a major investment in infrastructure projects. “That hasn’t happened. Now is the time,” as low interest rates will reduce the cost of those funds while also supporting the restart of an economy crippled by the virus.
Bellone is hopeful that the federal government will consider his request for financial support for Suffolk County in July. Bellone said the county sends to Washington billions more than it receives each year. This year, amid the pandemic, he urged the federal government to recognize the natural disaster that has devastated the region and urges the federal government to step in to prevent the county from hollowing out the vital services that responded to this crisis.
Viral Numbers
After a one-day slight increase in positive testing for the virus on Sunday, the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 rose by a smaller number through Monday. The number of new positive tests was 38, bringing the total for the county since testing began to 41,010.
The positive tests were below 1 percent of overall tests, which is a decline from the 1.2 percent on Sunday.
The number of people hospitalized declined by eight to 90. The number of people in Intensive Care Unit beds increased by six to 27.
An additional 17 people were discharged from the hospital in the 24 hour period ending on June 20.
For the fourth day in a row, one person died from complications related to the coronavirus. The death toll in Suffolk County is 1,965.
Bellone remains confident that the data will stay within a safe range through the summer.
“The numbers will remain good, largely because people will remain outdoors,” he said.
The fall, however, brings additional challenges, as students may return to school and people may return to more indoor activities, which could lead to a spike or a second wave.
He encourages residents to keep social distancing where they can, make sure they wear face coverings when they are in close proximity to others and to stay home if they are not feeling well.
With refinements in contact tracing, he is also confident that the county will be successful in keeping the economy open, operating and recovering.
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