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droughts

Above, Maasai tribe leaders during a visit to Port Jefferson on Saturday, April 22. Left to right: Chief Joseph Ole Tipanko, Cecilia Tipanko and John Kilenyi Ole Parsitau. Photos by Raymond Janis

Following a multiyear delay due to COVID-19, representatives of Port Jefferson’s sister village visited last weekend.

On Saturday, April 22, the chief of the Maasai tribe in Kenya returned to the Port Jefferson Village Center with two fellow members of the tribe. The Maasai delegation presented on local developments in Kenya since its last visit, as the shadow of the pandemic and environmental degradation have diminished their way of life.

In Maasai villages, there is no running water or electricity, they explained. The women construct huts made of sticks and mud. Men protect the community from the numerous dangerous animals that cohabitate in their territory. In this agricultural society, a Maasai family’s worth is determined by the number of cattle it owns.

‘For any American, it’s very beneficial to know about other cultures and other parts of the world.’

— Virginia Armstrong

In recent years, the Maasai have been ravaged by severe drought, killing off much of their cattle and endangering their very existence.

The chief, Joseph Ole Tipanko, oversees approximately 7,000 people in Kenya. His wife, Cecilia, and John Kilenyi Ole Parsitau were with him.

During their presentations, the Maasai people had an opportunity to share their culture with Port Jeff, highlighting the many similarities and differences between the two.

Virginia Armstrong is a local resident and partner of the Maasai organization, helping arrange their events while they are visiting the United States. 

She said that through the year, the leaders and community members of the two villages, though separated by 10,000 miles, have forged close ties.

“Mayor [Margot] Garant has been here several times, and she calls them her sister village,” Armstrong said.

Armstrong also stressed the unique opportunities that this bond creates, emphasizing how cultural exchanges between the two villages mutually enrich one another.

“We benefit each other,” she said. “We bring some cultural awareness to Port Jeff and then, in exchange, we are supported by the village here.”

She added, “For any American, it’s very beneficial to know about other cultures and other parts of the world.”

‘Whenever we come here, we feel so connected.’

— Chief Joseph Ole Tipanko

During the presentations, the chief explored some of the challenges that the Maasai people face today, including severe droughts, environmental degradation and the ill effects of climate change.

The chief said there are numerous attributes that Port Jeff village residents should take away from the Maasai way of life. “People need to be bonded together by love and unity,” he said. “It’s also good that they know that they should conserve.”

Tipanko stressed that in much of the undeveloped world, including the Maasai villages, access to food is often limited. He reminded Americans that they should not take food for granted. 

“They should appreciate what they have here in this country,” he said.

He has also observed in the U.S. a tendency toward excess, with many Americans consuming well beyond their basic needs. He commented that this mode of thinking could lead to a grasping, materialistic outlook and culture, impeding one’s connection to others and enjoyment of life.

American children “need much, but in Africa, even getting a sweet — a candy — is something big,” he said. “Getting a pair of shoes is something that’s big because some of the kids are barefoot.” 

He added that Americans “should be thankful for what they have because they have running water in their houses, bathrooms and electricity. To me, I think they are very lucky.”

Upon returning to Port Jeff, the chief highlighted the importance of sharing that message.

“Whenever we come here, we feel so connected,” he said, adding that this unique forum “teaches the students to come and appreciate the diverse cultures of the world. And in that, when I understand their culture and they understand my culture, we are able to live peacefully as brothers and sisters for a peaceful global world.”

A migration journey through a Bedouin camp in the Negev Desert (Saharan-Arabian desert), Israel (2017) – a scene that will likely be more common in many areas of the world due to increasing 21st Century droughts. Photo y Gallya Lahav
Stony Brook-led research combined social science and climate models in a paper published in International Migration Review

Drought and the potential increase in the number of droughts worldwide due to climate change remains a concern for scientists. A recent study led by Stony Brook University researchers suggests that human migration due to droughts will increase by at least 200 percent as we move through the 21st Century. Based on a series of both climate and social science modeling systems and other social science data, the study findings imply that migration may force the need to adjust sociopolitical policies to offset widespread human displacement in the future. The study is published in International Migration Review.

According to lead author Oleg Smirnov, PhD, Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at Stony Brook University, the research team worked from an ensemble of 16 climate models to generate drought projections for rest of the 21st Century. They centered on two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: an optimistic one consistent with the Paris Agreement, and a pessimistic one based on current use of energy and greenhouse gas emissions.

It is important to note that while the Groundswell report assesses human migration projections due to climate change by 2050 in six world regions, this study analyzes potential drought-induced human migration around the entire world for the whole century going forward.

Both Smirnov and co-author Gallya Lahav, PhD, a migration specialist and Associate Professor of Political Science at Stony Brook University, assessed the sociopolitical climates and policies in connection with the climate models. Co-authors and climate experts Minghua Zhang, PhD, of Stony Brook University’s School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences (SoMAS), and Tingyin Xiao of Princeton University, generated global drought projections for two emissions scenarios for the period of 2008 to 2100 in order to complete the analysis.

Overall, they project there will be a massive increase in drought-induced migration in the coming years – 200 percent more based on the optimistic climate projections and as high as 500 percent more if world leaders fail to cooperate on climate change mitigation measures.

“One interesting finding is that we also identified a large group of people who will want to migrate but fail to do so as droughts cover large areas of land making possible destinations difficult to get to or inferior to their land of origin,” explains Smirnov.

The authors estimate that this segment of “immobile” people will also increase by about 200 percent in the optimistic scenario, yet almost 600 percent under the “business as usual” or pessimistic scenario.

“Our models make us not only concerned about the increasing number of environmentally displaced people that may spread across the globe, but we are equally, if not more, concerned about the large number of these ‘immobile’ persons – who may be desperate to leave but unable to do so, which may contribute to social suffering and instability,” emphasizes Smirnov.

Furthermore, “given that environmentally-induced migrants largely fall outside of international legal frameworks like the Refugee Convention which protects those fleeing war or conflict, a multi-lateral holistic policy approach is vital in this grey area,” adds, Lahav, a previous consultant to the United Nations Population Division.

Despite the scientific quest to systematically assess and predict future migratory outcomes, the researchers agree that the social science aspect of the study may have additional unknown variables and complexities when projecting because of the political aspects of migration. The authors write “we can only talk about potential migration pressures, as opposed to actual migration, since we do not know how future political responses will affect and potentially constrain future migration flows. Similarly, we do not rely on the absolute number of migrants, since these numbers are sensitive to the arbitrary modeling assumptions.”

As the researchers chart the drought-induced migration models toward the end of the 21st Century, they warn that many countries will have large numbers of migrating peoples. They state that the largest number of people displaced by drought under unmitigated change would occur in these countries: Nigeria, Egypt, China, Turkey, Algeria, Mexico, Morocco, and Venezuela. The projected largest number of immobile persons would be those in Turkey, Mexico, Morocco, Algeria, Brazil, Mali, and China.

Overall, say Smirnov and colleagues, the study findings provide solid evidence that global climate change mitigation would be less costly in terms of human suffering and economic loss from drought-induced migration than policies designed to deal with the overwhelming challenges of unmitigated climate change.

This research is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under the “Cyber-Enabled Discovery and Innovation” collaborative (grant numbers 0940822 and 0940744).