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Twilight Zone

Pixabay photo

By Michael E. Russell

Michael E. Russell

What a week!  Monday the Dow rose 765 points.  Tuesday the Dow rose 826 points.  Wednesday the Dow lost 40 points, a well-deserved rest. Back to the new reality.  Thursday the Dow dropped 347 points followed by a loss of 630 points on Friday. Still, a gain of 1.5% for the week. 

Is the market building a base at these levels? Were the gains of the past week what we used to call a “dead cat bounce” in a Bear market?  Really hard to say.

Earnings are starting to weaken while consumer debt increases. An example of the cost of debt this year is as follows: Let us say that a family wishes to purchase a home while secured a $480,000 mortgage. Last year the cost would have been $2023 per month with an interest rate of 3%. That same mortgage presently would cost $3097 per month with a rate of 6.7%. Over a 30-year period you would pay an additional $385,000 in interest. These increases are taking a substantial portion of the middle class out of the real estate market. This is only one segment of a problematic economy.

Expectations of how many more rate increases the Federal Reserve will make is a big part of what is driving the price action in the stock market. The present administration is having a problem with conditions overseas.  President Biden just met with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. It was hoped that this meeting would lead to a production increase of 2 million barrels of oil per day.  

Guess what? Upon Biden’s return, the Saudi’s announced a decrease of the same 2 million barrels per day. Productive meeting! On top of this, the President stated that we are facing a “potential nuclear Armageddon” the likes of which have not been seen since the Cuban Missile Crisis that President Kennedy faced in 1962. Nice thought to go to sleep with!!

Time to ease up a bit. The Federal Reserve cannot start cutting rates until the Consumer Price Index drops in half from its current level of 8.3%. In the meantime, investors should be taking advantage of U.S. Treasury yields. The 30-year bond is yielding 3.6% while the one- and two-year notes are yielding in excess of 4.1%. This is called an inverse yield curve.  4.1% for one year sure beats the 0.001% the banks are paying. Not very neighborly!  

We may be getting close to a market bottom plus or minus 10%. Many financial “gurus” are suggesting a large cash position in investor portfolios. Brilliant! This after a decline of over 30% in the market. Where were these people in January and February?  

Is crypto currency a viable investment now?  Bitcoin was supposed to be an inflation fighter. However, the worst inflation since the early 1970s has coincided with a 60% drop in Bitcoin’s price over the past year. It was also stated that Bitcoin is “digital gold.” Not proven true. Gold itself has outperformed Bitcoin, losing just 6% of its value. 

Ethereum, which is the second largest blockchain, has had a major upgrade which may fuel money going into crypto. Readers need to do their own research pertaining to crypto. My last thought on this topic: crypto strategist Alkesh Shah of Bank of America still feels that bitcoin and other cryptos are still viable long-term investments. As an aside, I really don’t have a long-term horizon. 

On a pleasant note, my wife and I just returned from Scotland where we visited our granddaughter at the University of St. Andrew, an incredible experience.

The economy there is booming. We did not see vacant store fronts. Much pride was shown in their communities; cleanliness and politeness were everywhere. I was very interested in the opinion of the Scots vis a vis the vote to break from the UK. 

I will breakdown opinions in three groups. The youth have little interest in the monarchy, the senior citizens still admire the monarchy due to their memories of WWII. The 40–60-year age group I found most interesting, although my questions were asked at a single malt scotch distillery. The point was made that Scotland is a land of 5.5 million, like Norway and Sweden. The British Pound is in free fall, which is threatening government and corporate pensions. The Scots are upset over Brexit. They wished to stay within the European Union. 

As we get closer to Thanksgiving, let us hope that the Russian people put pressure on Putin to leave office or better yet, the planet. Best regards to all and enjoy this beautiful Fall season. 

Michael E. Russell retired after 40 years working for various Wall Street firms. All recommendations being made here are not guaranteed and may incur a loss of principal. The opinions and investment recommendations expressed in the column are the author’s own. TBR News Media does not endorse any specific investment advice and urges investors to consult with their financial advisor. 

Twilight Zone. Pixabay photo

By Daniel Dunaief

Daniel Dunaief

Conversations with friends, relatives and neighbors have taken a turn into “The Twilight Zone” episodes recently.

Decades ago, when I spoke with my friends, we discussed our activities, ambitions and plans. We might have complained about our bosses, described a business trip, shared an encounter with a stranger on a plane or train, or described our frustrations with our favorite sports teams.

Sure, we still do that, but, as the years pass, the discussions drift. This is where I’d cue the music.

In Episode One, we have two college friends who shared a room for several years, who sweated through a spectacularly hot summer in Boston with no air conditioning, and who, over the decades, visited each other’s homes with and without our wives and children.

So, these two friends recently started catching up.

“I can’t stand the hair that’s coming out of my ears,” I offered. “It makes it harder to hear and to be taken seriously by anyone looking at me.”

“Yeah, that’s pretty unwelcome,” my friend laughed. “My back is killing me. I wake up every morning and it takes me a while to feel comfortable enough to stand and shuffle to the bathroom.”

“My hip has been a problem,” I reply.

“I also don’t see particularly well. I don’t like driving when it’s dark,” he added.

“My knee is sore,” I added, “but I think that’s from compensating for my hip.”

And so it went, for about 10 minutes, until we broke the description of all that ails us and transitioned to a discussion of all that inspires, and worries, us about our college-age children.

“I hope you feel better soon,” I offered as we got off the phone.

“At this point, I’d just take not feeling worse,” he said.

Okay, so that wasn’t too terrifying, right? Two 50-ish guys chatted and shared personal details about the aging vessels that carry us through life.

That takes us to Episode Two. Imagine, if you will, a group of older adults, representing the 50ish and the 80ish generation, chatting in person together.

“Have you been to the doctor recently?” one of the people asked.

“Which one? For what?” a second one replied.

“How many doctors do you have?” a third one asked.

And that is where the conversation became a competition. Each person, slowly and deliberately, shared the number of doctors he or she visits.

“I’ve had kidney stones, so I have a urologist,” I offered, as if I were recounting trophies on a shelf or comparing the number of friends I have with someone else in fourth grade rather than recalling a specialist who helped me deal with excruciating agony.

“Do you have an ENT doctor? I have one,” someone else said.

My competitive spirit again got the best of me.

“I have the best GI guy, who gave me a great colonoscopy. I had such a nice rest while I was under anesthesia,” I said.

I pictured a younger version of me, sitting with the group, staring, open-mouthed at the enthusiasm with which all of us, me included, counted our doctors and the reason we needed them.

In Episode Three, a man in his 30s walked his dog, limping along with a supportive black boot on his leg. Another man (me) appeared, pulled along by his oversized dog.

“Not to get too personal,” I said, “but your shoes don’t match.”

The good-natured man smiled and said he thought he had shin splints from running, but discovered he had a hairline fracture that required several weeks of rest in a boot.

“I went to my parents’ house in New Hampshire and ran over five miles on an uneven road. The next day, I could barely move. I have to rest it for six weeks,” he said.

I nodded and wished him a speedy recovery.

“Well, maybe it hurts just because I’m older,” he offered.

You have no idea, I thought, as I could feel the urge to hold back a clock that pushes each of us forward through time. 

Cue the music.

Photo from METRO

By Daniel Dunaief

Daniel Dunaief

I’m the dog that lives in a house with these four people who never leave. I think I may have entered the dog Twilight Zone.

First, there’s this guy who loves to pick me up. It’s crazy, because I’m about 90 pounds, but he says he’s getting exercise. I don’t mind too much, but it does feel weird being up as high as the cats get when they jump to get away from me.

Then, there’s this smaller girl who is his sister. She speaks to me once a day in a high squeaky voice and pats my head. I wag my tail to encourage her, but she has too many other things to do, much of which involve the phone in her hand. 

Then there’s “Mom,” who is a self-described cat person. She doesn’t like the way I smell and I’m always in her way. Still, she gives me food once in a while and she tells everyone else to leave me alone and let me go to sleep. The girl and boy stay up way after mom and dad and they sometimes want to play when I would prefer to dream about this old dog who lives next door.

Finally, there’s the one they call “Dad.” He takes me on most of my walks. Sometimes, he puts these white things in his ears and talks to people who aren’t there. He doesn’t always pay close attention to me when he’s got those things in his head, so I get more time to sniff the high traffic areas where other dogs leave their scents.

My daily routine has changed considerably. For starters, walks are both better and worse. They are better because I can go further and I see more people. I am what you might call a “people dog.” But here’s where things get weird. As soon as people get almost close enough to pat my head, either Dad takes me across the street or the other people walk away from me. I’ve tried everything. I lay down and put my head between my paws. That’s a classic, nonthreatening pose. People sometimes slow down when they see that one and they make happy noises, but they rarely stop and they never pat my head.

I also stop and wag my tail with my ears up. Again, it’s Dog Tricks 101, but it doesn’t seem to be working. Sometimes they smile at me, although, more often than not, they seem to be holding their breath when Dad and I walk by. Maybe Dad has been eating too many onions again and he has bad people breath. 

Nobody walks in the door and announces they are home anymore. They’re here almost all the time. They used to be happy when I barked at people who walked past the house or who came to the door. Now, they scream about how I have “perfect timing” and how they’re on a “work call” and they need me to “keep quiet.”

I am just doing what generations of dogs have done since the beginning of that whole wolf-dog transformation. I’m protecting the house. How am I supposed to know that it’s “just a stroller” or that I’m going to “make that little kid fall off his bike?”

I’m definitely in the dog Twilight Zone these days, waiting for people to pet me again and waiting for the four people who never leave to start appreciating all the little things I do again, like protecting the house.