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By Michael Ardolino

Michael Ardolino

So far, there is much less inventory on the market for the first quarter of the new year than originally predicted. What this means for sellers is less competition than previously anticipated and a higher chance of selling your home for top dollar. Inventory is not easily predicted accurately, so sellers should continuously watch inventory levels and make decisions based on current facts and statistics. 

As for buyers, it’s also savvy to focus on mortgage rates. The year 2022 showed a clear positive correlation — meaning variables or values that travel in the same direction — between inventory and mortgage rates. When mortgage rates changed, so did inventory. Rates are nearly double what they were this time last year, and it’s clear that has affected inventory. (See graph above). The great news is these rates are still very low (especially compared to rates in the 7% range last October), competition is softer among buyers versus January 2022, and there are still options to buy. 

According to Mike Simonsen at Altos Research, “the data doesn’t say ‘wait for an influx of homes.” He goes on to explain there is more inventory than this time last year, so buyers now have more options. There is no concrete evidence that supports the idea that a sudden wave of inventory is hitting the market. With fluctuating mortgage rates, taking advantage of the current market is strongly recommended.

Job market affects housing market 

According to The New York Times’ December Job Report, several fields, such as medical, retail, construction, etc., generated job growth. “Employers added 223,000 jobs in December, the Labor Department reported.” Unemployment stands at 3.5%, proving stability and a healthy workforce.

Lydia DePillis at The New York Times states, “layoffs and initial claims for unemployment insurance have remained extremely low, while the gap between the number of available workers and listed jobs is far larger than its historical average,” meaning less available, or unemployed workers in a time of high employee demand. Jobs added to the market and current decrease in unemployment will lead to more potential homebuyers, especially with many looking to buy instead of rent. 

I’ve mentioned in previous articles the “shining star” of real estate is equity. Property ownership is one of the greatest hedges against inflation and can be tapped into in cases of emergencies. Since data of our local real estate market does not show price depreciation in the near future, purchasing a home now will build your equity and will provide a sizable return on investment (ROI) when you resell. 

Takeaway 

Right now is still an excellent opportunity to put your home on the market, and things are looking up for buyers as well. Sellers should take advantage of the current low inventory levels, and both sellers and buyers should take advantage of historically low mortgage rates and a strong job market. Equity in real estate is an excellent financial hedge, and locally appreciating homes will increase your ROI in a future resale. So … let’s talk. 

Michael Ardolino is the Founder/Owner-Broker of Realty Connect USA

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Michael Ardolino

By Michael Ardolino

In last month’s column, I wrote about how the real estate market experiences its ups and downs. A few current trends are an example of how true that is.

Mortgage rates

While mortgage rates dropped half a percent the week ending July 7, they shifted slightly back up the following week to 5.51% for a 30-year fixed mortgage.

Keep in mind that the rates we have been seeing are still historically low, even with experts forecasting that the Federal Reserve will boost rates by ¾ of a percentage point at its next meeting.

Some financial experts believe we are headed toward a recession, and you may wonder what happens to interest rates in that scenario. Due to fewer people taking out loans, banks may offer interest rate programs to incentivize people. Currently, interest rates are still very low and can be locked in.

Inventory trend

After an extended seller’s market, there still isn’t enough inventory to keep up with the demand. Keep an eye on mortgage rates, though. Some may decide not to buy or sell, thinking they’ll get a better deal by waiting. This may not be the best decision for buyers or sellers and may also lead to an inventory increase. 

Experts are now forecasting that the increase will be more than 9% by the end of 2022, which means more competition. This increase will not occur instantaneously; it will take some time. Get that For Sale sign up before your neighbor does.

Foreclosures may play a factor in inventory increases, too. The COVID-19 Eviction and Foreclosures Act of 2020 enacted a moratorium until Jan.15, 2022. 

While experts are seeing a steady climb in foreclosures throughout the country, the ATTOM U.S. Foreclosure Market Report shows New York’s foreclosures are 13.3% less than the same period in 2020. It’s a trend to keep an eye on as the more houses foreclosed on, the more properties are available to buyers.

Another factor is the federal act helped slow down foreclosures during a time when homes were appreciating. For some who were about to default on their mortgages before the moratorium, they can now sell their homes for more money and pay off what they owed.

To touch on appreciation, according to a One Key MLS report, median sales prices in Suffolk County showed a nearly 11% increase from June 2021 to June 2022.

Here’s more good news for Suffolk County. In the last few months, the majority of homes were still selling in less than a month and about 23% quicker than they did last year during the same period. 

Pricing

It’s all about pricing. When talking to a real estate professional, they should discuss current market factors, as well as details of your home, and help you price it accordingly. Also, proper pricing will enable you to sell your home to your timing and pricing expectations.

Takeaway

There are many moving pieces regarding how well a person will do when selling or buying a home. Considering buying your first home, downsizing, moving into a bigger place or to another state before the end of the year, now is the time to discuss your plans with a real estate professional. So … let’s talk.

Michael Ardolino is the Founder/Owner-Broker of Realty Connect USA.

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Source: CoreLogic/The Balance

By Michael Ardolino

Michael Ardolino

The beginning of this year has proved to look at more than one factor when predicting the future of real estate. Sellers and buyers have been on the edge of their seats.

National headlines, including “foreclosures” and “recession,” haven’t helped matters. To avoid misconceptions, those wanting to sell or buy a home need to read past headlines for context.

Let’s discuss foreclosures

Earlier in the pandemic, people were eligible for a forbearance program for coronavirus-related financial hardships. The federal program allowed property owners going through a difficult time to request a pause or reduction of their mortgage payments from their lenders. It provided an opportunity for many to get back on their feet.

Experts are finding that many who took advantage of this plan could catch up on their payments or restructure their loans, making it easier for them to make payments again.

Mortgage Bankers Association findings show that 36% of loans upon exiting the forbearance program were paid in full, 44.6% were repayment plans and 18.4% of mortgage holders still had problems.

For the homeowners who had enough equity to sell their homes, the real estate market has quickly absorbed the new listings because inventory is low and demand still remains high.

Recession doesn’t equal housing crisis

When some people hear “recession,” they think if there’s a housing bubble it will be ready to pop. Looking back at 2008, I can understand the concerns. Interestingly, there have been half a dozen recessions since 1980, and homes have appreciated four times and only twice depreciated. (See the chart in my ad in Arts & Lifestyles)

The data proves that a slow economy doesn’t necessarily mean home values fall.

I mentioned in past columns that this time around, as homes appreciated and the trend continued, we were in better condition than 2008 when a high percentage of borrowers were defaulting on their subprime mortgages.

Those mortgages were easier to get than they are today, and the banking industry learned from its mistake. Banks are looking for buyers with credit scores on the high side who can afford a solid down payment. Also, homeowners who refinance must maintain 20% equity, which wasn’t the case in 2008 and led to property values falling to a point where the owner had a higher principal than what their house was worth.

Takeaway

Timing is everything. There’s no need to panic even if the economy isn’t ideal. With a little research, you can find the best time for you to sell or buy a home. 

So … let’s talk.

Michael Ardolino is the Founder/Owner-Broker of Realty Connect USA.

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