Suffolk County's drug problem will be discussed at a public forum Oct. 1. File photo by Erika Karp
Opioid addiction will be the topic of discussion at a community forum on Saturday, Oct. 1 at Stony Brook University. The free event, titled The Opioid Epidemic, will be hosted by the group Scientists for Policy, Advocacy, Diplomacy and Education at the Charles B. Wang Center Theatre from 4:30 to 6:30 p.m. Hear from policy experts, community leaders and scientists on how to combat this growing threat to our community. A series of short presentations will be followed by a round-table discussion with community participation. Refreshments will be served.
Speakers will include state Sen. John Flanagan (R-East Northport), State Sen. Ken LaValle (R-Port Jefferson), Suffolk County Deputy Sheriff William Weick, Director of Adult Inpatient Services at Stony Brook Constantine Ioannou and Columbia University Assistant Professor of Clinical Neurobiology Jermaine Jones.
Attendees are encouraged to bring excess or expired medication for the “Shed the Meds” disposal program. Narcan (opioid OD antidote) training is available after the event for selected pre-registered participants.
Free parking is available at the Administration parking lot across from the Wang Center.
For more information or to register online, visit opioidepidemicforum.eventbrite.com or call 267-259-7347.
The Comsewogue football team storms the field to open up the homecoming game on Sept. 24. Photo by Bill Landon
Danny Robins, from the Class of 1990; Annie O'Shea, from the Class of 2005; and Alex Gayer, from the Class of 1989, were inducted into the Comsewogue sports hall of fame prior to the football game on Sept. 24. Photo by Bill Landon
Members of Comsewogue's school district show off their pride during the homecoming parade on Sept. 24. Photo by Bill Landon
Young band members perform during the homecoming parade on Sept. 24. Photo by Bill Landon
Young Warriors take part in a football toss game during Comsewogue's homecoming day carnival on Sept. 24. Photo by Bill Landon
Children whiz down a slide during Comsewogue's homecoming day carnival on Sept. 24. Photo by Bill Landon
Comsewogue fans pack the high school for homecoming game day on Sept. 24. Photo by Bill Landon
Members of Comsewogue's school district show off their pride during the homecoming parade on Sept. 24. Photo by Bill Landon
A child enjoys the Comsewogue school district's homecoming day carnival on Sept. 24. Photo by Bill Landon
Comsewogue's seniors show off their pride during the homecoming parade on Sept. 24. Photo by Bill Landon
Members of Comsewogue's school district show off their pride during the homecoming parade on Sept. 24. Photo by Bill Landon
Cheerleaders perform on the sideline during Comsewogue's homecoming game on Sept. 24. Photo by Bill Landon
Comsewogue football fans show up to support the Warriors during the homecoming football game on Sept. 24. Photo by Bill Landon
Comsewogue quarterback Anthony Guardiano wards off a defenseman while he breaks up the field with the ball. Photo by Bill landon
Comseowgue running back Kai Cochrane rushes up the field. Photo by Bill Landon
Comsewogue running back Warren Smith jets downfield with the ball. Photo by Bill Landon
Comseowgue running back Kai Cochrane brushes off a tackle attempt. Photo by Bill Landon
Cheerleaders perform at halftime, during Comsewogue's homecoming game on Sept. 24. Photo by Bill Landon
Comsewogue football fans show up to support the Warriors during the homecoming football game on Sept. 24. Photo by Bill Landon
Comsewogue quarterback Anthony Guardiano snags an interception. Photo by Bill Landon
Comsewogue wide receiver Tyler Timpanaro grabs a reception. Photo by Bill Landon
Comseowgue running back Kai Cochrane finds an open hole as he gains yards. Photo by Bill Landon
Comewogue quarterback Anthony Guardiano passes the ball. Photo by Bill Landon
The Comsewogue football team races toward the sideline in celebration of its homecoming win on Sept. 24. Photo by Bill Landon
Comsewogue quarterback Anthony Guardiano embraces his coach in celebration of the Warriors' homecoming win on Sept. 24. Photo by Bill Landon
By Bill Landon
Comsewogue hosted Hauppauge on Sept. 24, and it was only fitting that the Warriors’ homecoming battle on the gridiron snapped a 10-game losing streak, dating back to the 2015 season.
The Warriors hadn’t won a football game since 2014.
Having dropped the first two games of the season, Comsewogue was on a long string of defeats — so the team was desperate for a win. After squandering a 14-point lead late in the game, the Comsewogue defense stood its ground, and stopped a late-game drive by the Eagles that would have tied the game with seconds remaining, and the Warriors escaped with a 27-21 victory.
“We can never finish games and we were due for this,” senior quarterback Anthony Guardiano said. “We were due to win this game and we did it. We did it as a team. We’ve been busting our butts this week, and we’ve been so much more disciplined than we were last season. We honestly deserved this, and that it was homecoming, made it even better.”
The quarterback pulled double duty on the afternoon, running for 134 yards and rushing in two touchdowns, while snagging a crucial interception in the third quarter to stall a Hauppauge drive that changed the momentum of the game.
After Guardiano scored the first touchdown of the game on a 47-yard run, Kai Cochrane got the call, and pounded the ball up the middle — like he did most of the afternoon — to the second touchdown of the game on a 1-yard run. Although the extra-point attempt by senior kicker Shane Wolff failed following the second touchdown, the Warriors found themselves out front, 13-0.
“We were due to win this game and we did it. We did it as a team. We’ve been busting our butts this week, and we’ve been so much more disciplined than we were last season. We honestly deserved this, and that it was homecoming, made it even better.”
— Anthony Guardiano
The margin of victory could’ve been much greater, had the Warriors not committed as many mistakes as they did. Twice, touchdown passes from Guardiano connected with his open wide receiver, senior Tyler Timpanaro, who came down with the ball in the end zone, but both times the play was called back because of penalties.
On Comsewogue’s next possession, Cochrane, a junior running back and linebacker, broke to the outside and went the distance for the score, only to have the ball called back on a holding penalty. Instead, Hauppauge scored on its ensuing drive to close the gap, 13-7.
Guardiano made things interesting when he sprinted down the right sideline for a first down following a fake punt on a third-and-out, but the Warriors couldn’t capitalize on the opportunity. Both teams traded possession and neither team could score in the third, but Cochrane found the end zone a minute into the fourth quarter on a 14-yard run. He then bulled his way up the middle for a successful 2-point conversion for a 21-7 advantage.
“After halftime, we made adjustments — the coaches got together and made some [changes] offensively and defensively,” Comsewogue head coach Sean Tremblay said. “You can have any scheme you want, and they’re all sound, but it all boils down to the kids who have to execute it.”
Hauppauge discovered a weakness in the Comsewogue secondary, and moved to the air, tossing the ball to open receivers as the Eagles moved the chains down the field. Hauppauge’s quarterback hit his open receiver down the right sideline for a score with nine minutes left in the game, and with the point-after attempt successful, drew his teamwithin six points, to trail 21-14.
On the ensuing kickoff, Comsewogue coughed up the ball and Hauppauge recovered in strong field position. The Eagles marched downfield for another score, and tied the game 21-21 at the 7:31 mark, after the extra-point kick was good.
With 5:15 left in regulation, Guardiano took matters into his own hands and traveled outside on a broken play, running 63 yards for a touchdown. The 2-point conversion attempt failed, and as the clock unwound, the Eagles went back to their aerial offense, finding open receivers over the middle for short yardage as they marched down the field. With 18 seconds on the clock, Hauppauge knocked on Comsewogue’s door, advancing the ball to the 9-yard line. With eight seconds left, the team completed another pass over the middle to move to the 3-yard line. The Eagles tried to get another play in, but a tackle on the 1-yard line prevented a score as time expired.
“This was an emotional win — we needed it badly because were going on 700 days without a win,” Cochrane said. “Today’s win was beautiful, especially on homecoming weekend. We need to stop the mental errors, and we need to keep this momentum going.”
Down Payment Assistance Program to help 35 families
Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone and Legislator Kara Hahn congratulate down payment recipients in Port Jefferson. Photo from Steve Bellone's office
By Donna Newman
Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone (D) recently announced the extension of the Suffolk County Down Payment Assistance Program, which assists first-time homebuyers with funds for a down payment to help make the “American Dream” of homeownership a reality.
Assistance will provide up to $10,000 in grant funding to eligible first-time homebuyers — helping an additional 35 Suffolk County families. Since the program’s inception, Suffolk County has helped more than 1,700 families with down payments on their first homes.
Applications are now being accepted through Nov. 30. Residents may download the application through the Community Development tab on the County’s website, www.suffolkcountyny.gov.
Applications will be accepted by mail only and may also be requested by telephone from the Community Development Office: 631-853–5705.
Bellone stressed that qualified Suffolk County residents must purchase a home within the consortium area. They will have 90 days from the date of issuance of the Purchase Certificate to submit a fully executed Contract of Sale to the Community Development Office — or 300 days to submit a fully executed contract of sale if the first-time homebuyer is purchasing a new construction home.
The consortium includes all of Suffolk County, excluding the Towns of Babylon and Islip.
Comprehensive details of the eligibility criteria, income guidelines and other elements of the program are available on the County website. Key eligibility elements include:
• An applicant must be a first-time homebuyer as defined by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) as a household that has not owned a home during the three-year period immediately prior to the purchase of a residence with HOME funding.
• Prospective applicants must represent a low to moderate income household with an annual income not exceeding 80 percent of the area median income as determined by HUD, which includes an adjustment for family size; must have at least $3,000 banked at the time of application; have a documented minimum income of at least $30,000 and be able to obtain a mortgage from a qualified lender.
• The maximum appraised value of a single-family residence to be purchased within the Suffolk County Consortium HOME Selection Area cannot exceed $356,000 for existing housing or new construction. Single-family homes, condominiums and cooperative apartments (co-ops) are eligible.
Theatre Three, 412 Main Street, Port Jefferson will screen the award winning documentary “Magnus” on Monday, September 26 at 7 p.m. as part of the 2016 Fall Port Jefferson Documentary series.
Through archival footage and home movies “Magnus” tells the story of 26-year-old Norwegian chess champion Magnus Carlsen’s rise to the top. A hit at several international festivals and winner of the Ray of Sunshine prize at the Norwegian International Film Festival, the documentary also gives the audience a peek inside the isolated world of the chess community. In English and Norwegian. Sponsored by the Long Island Chess Club. Guest speaker, via Skype, will be the director, Benjamin Ree.
Tickets are $7 and will be sold at the door. For more information, call 631-473-5220 or visit www.portjeffdocumentaryseries.com.
Please note the incorrect date was listed in the printed Times … and dates calendar under the photo.
Participants from the Walk a Day in Our Shoes event Sunday, Sept. 18, smile as they start their trek. Photo from Angela’s House
By Victoria Espinoza
More than 700 people walked a day in someone else’s shoes this past weekend.
Angela’s House, a Hauppauge-based nonprofit organization that offers support for families and children living with severe medical conditions, hosted its second annual Walk a Day in Our Shoes 3K Walk fundraiser at the Holtsville Ecology Center Sept. 18.
$45,000 was raised to help bring awareness to the organization’s cause. Limited options exist for families with children born and diagnosed as being medically frail, chronically ill or suffering from any type of life-threatening conditions when or if they leave the hospital.
Bob Policastro, founder and executive director of Angela’s House, said he was unaware of the limited options parents have until his daughter, Angela, suffered severe brain damage during birth, which left her very medically frail and in need of nursing care.
“The process is incredibly painful,” Policastro said in a phone interview. “You’re in this situation no one wants to be in, and you need to figure out how you’ll be there as a parent for your child.”
Participants from the Walk a Day in Our Shoes event Sunday, Sept. 18, smile as they start their trek. Photo from Angela’s House
Policastro said he and his wife, Angie, had a hard time finding a specialized home or facility near where they lived in Hauppauge and eventually settled on a specialty hospital in Connecticut. The lack of services locally put additional emotional and physical strain on the parents because they were forced to travel more than two hours to spend time with their daughter in Connecticut. Angela eventually succumbed to her illnesses and died shortly after her first birthday.
The Policastros created the nonprofit in 1992 and since then have opened three homes in East Moriches, Smithtown and Stony Brook where children with serious medical conditions live and are cared for 24 hours a day.
The funds raised from the event will help continue the care in these three homes, as well as programs to help other families learn about the resources available for them and their loved ones who are struggling with life-threatening medical issues.
One mother wrote about her experience with Angela’s House. Her son Johnny required a tracheotomy and a feeding tube around five years old. She said as his condition worsened, she was no longer able to take care of him at home, and that’s when she found Angela’s House.
“Bob and his wife Angie have been working tirelessly to have a home built for children [whose] medical needs were too great for families to care for their child at home but whose family is on Long Island,” she wrote. “Johnny spent nearly 16 years at Angela’s House and during that time he has received excellent medical care and a tremendous amount of LOVE. The wonderful nurses and aides tirelessly provided Johnny with kisses, hugs and jokes. Johnny rewarded them with the simplest of gestures … his smile.”
The day included face painting, a D.J., a zoo and lunch provided by Applebee’s.
Centereach's Annalie Buscarino makes a diving save off a penalty kick. Photo by Bill Landon
By Bill Landon
With a 5-0 league record, Smithtown West hosted the Centereach girls’ soccer team, and on paper, it looked to be an easy matchup. But the 1-4 Cougars gave the team a run for its money.
In a raucous game that was stopped multiple times for players to receive yellow cards, leading to both fan and coach ejections, the Bulls’ lone goal came with 12 minutes left to play, as Smithtown West escaped with a 1-0 victory.
Centereach’s Emily Tirado and Smithtown West’s Jillian Meaney leap up to head the ball. Photo by Bill Landon
Although the Bulls spent most of the game on the Cougars half of the field, Centereach’s defense stood its ground and time and time again was able to clear the ball down field.
Play was stopped as the coaches questioned many calls made by the officials. There was a lengthy delay for an injured player with 27 minutes left, and a minute later play stopped as the officials ejected Smithtown West’s head coach Rob Schretzmayer.
With all the play stoppages, neither team could find a rhythm, and the game stretched beyond two hours in length.
On a penalty kick, Centereach senior goalkeeper Annalie Buscarino stood tall in the net, and dove to the right side of the net, deflecting the ball for the save to the astonishment of the Bulls’ kicker.
“They always come out hard and we were definitely expecting a lot, because they’re the No. 1 team in the league right now, but I think we did a really great job at stepping up and I was very happy with my team’s performance,” she said. “Defensively and offensively, we moved the ball and we have to keep up this momentum to bring in some wins this season.”
Smithtown West’s Jillian Meaney’s foot decided the game with 11:21 left to play, when the freshman’s shot found the right corner of the net for the lone goal of the afternoon.
“It was a short corner — we planned it before,” Meaney said. “I had a good angle to shoot and I just shot it.”
Centereach head coach Andrew Nardi said his team studied and prepared to take on the team atop the League III leaderboard.
Smithtown West’s Sarah Harrington battles Centereach’s Jessica Desena for the ball. Photo by Bill Landon
“Smithtown West — they’re undefeated, but we had a game-plan and we stuck with the game-plan,” he said. “And it helped us. We just got unlucky in that last 12 minutes.”
Centereach senior Lauren Buscarino, Annalie’s twin sister, was under no illusion that her team would have an easy time against Smithtown West.
“We were expecting a hard game, and we had to step up and we did that,” she said. “We kept our spirits up; we played up to their level. We’re both division [III] teams, so it’s easy to fall back a little, but today we played up to them.”
Meaney said she thought her team may have underestimated Centereach.
“I didn’t think they were going to be that strong,” she said. “We came in weak and we should’ve gone in stronger. I’m happy we were able to stay up, and we kept pushing through the game, even after all the crazy stuff that went on.”
Smithtown West assistant coach Steve Ianone said it was difficult for his team to gain any kind of traction during the contest.
“The game was stopped so many times during the course of play … neither team could get into any kind of groove, so we just couldn’t get a flow going,” Ianone said. “I was pleased with everyone’s overall performance on the field today, though, especially with the stop-and-go play.”
It’s official: bagging your groceries will cost you.
The Suffolk County Legislature approved a 5-cent fee per plastic grocery bag this month, which will be collected and kept by stores. The main goal of the legislation is to reduce bag waste by incentivizing shoppers to avoid the fee and bring their own bags.
“I feel relieved,” Suffolk County Legislator William “Doc” Spencer (D-Centerport) said in a phone interview. “But I am also concerned.”
Spencer said he is “sensitive” to struggling families with the current cost of living, and doesn’t want them to feel like this is a new fee or tax being imposed on them.
“This is nothing new, people are paying for these bags already,” he said.
“Plastic bags are a mistake of the past. Reusable bags are the solution for the future.” —Adrienne Esposito
According to the legislator, grocery stores already work the price of the plastic bags they give away into the price of products they sell.
A report conducted by the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments about plastic bags stated consumers pay $37.50 per year in hidden bag costs passed on by retailers.
But some residents are not on board with the future fee. Suffolk County Legislator Sara Anker (D-Mount Sinai) said she heard many responses from senior citizens in her district that they don’t like the new bill.
“I had an overwhelming response from residents not supporting the fee,” she said in a phone interview. “To [the senior community] it’s just another expense. The 5 cents goes right back to the retailer, and it should really go to a designated environmental fund.”
The idea of the fee going to an environmental cause was first implemented in Washington D.C., the first place in the United States to impose a 5-cent fee on plastic bags, with the Anacostia River Cleanup and Protection Act. According to the legislation, only 1 out of the 5-cent fee is collected by the store, and the rest is deposited in the Anacostia River Cleanup and Protection Fund.
In a 2013 study of the D.C. law, researchers found that both residents and businesses reported a significant reduction in disposable bag use and a majority of residents and businesses supported the bag fee. In addition, both residents and businesses said they saw fewer plastic bags littering the area.
Spencer said creating legislation similar to that in D.C. was discussed, with part of the fee going toward an environmental cause, however it ended up being out of his control.
“I would love to do that, but we don’t have the taxing authority,” Spencer said. He explained it would require state action for part of the fee to be divided and sent to an organization.
“I would love to see that money go towards conservation,” he said. “But it is important to move forward now and not wait for the state to act. On a county level, we’ve taken the lead.”
Spencer said he hopes eventually the state will create legislation that will supersede his own, but for now he must continue to do his job.
Citizens Campaign for the Environment Executive Director Adrienne Esposito applauded Spencer’s legislation.
“Plastic bags are a mistake of the past,” she said in a statement. “Reusable bags are the solution for the future. This legislation will reduce plastic bag use by 60 percent or more and that will make our communities and our bays cleaner and greener, and save us money. Kudos to Suffolk County Legislator Doc Spencer for his leadership and persistence in protecting our environment.”
The CCE said there is more plastic in the oceans than plankton, with 46,000 pieces of plastic in every square mile. Many marine animals are choked and strangled by bags, or die consuming them. The CCE said plastic pollution negatively impacts 267 species of marine life.
John Durso, president of Local 228, a retail labor union and Long Island Federation of Labor, said the bill will introduce positive change to Suffolk County. “The Suffolk County plastic bag law is truly an innovative bill that takes great steps to cut back on environmental waste, while also addressing the needs of local workers and businesses,” he said in a statement. “We were glad to work with the Suffolk County Legislature to collaborate on a landmark legislation that will protect our environment for future generations of Suffolk County’s working families.”
Sisters Denise Pianforte and Heather Richards received a new roof on their Port Jefferson Station home in February, as part of Port Jefferson Station-based A-1 Roofing & Siding's partnership with the No Roof Left Behind project. Photo from A-1 Roofing & Siding
By Rebecca Anzel
Whenever Denise Pianforte saw one of her neighbors getting a new roof installed, she hoped to soon be able to afford one as well. The Port Jefferson Station home she lived in with her sister, Heather Richards, was 60 years old.
Pianforte saw a flier on her church’s bulletin board for a program that advertised a free roof for a Suffolk County family in need. “I always pray to God to help me find a way to get the money [for a new roof],” she wrote in the online nomination form. She added that even with her and her sister each working two jobs at over 50 hours a week, it looked like the day would never come. “Seems like my only hope would be to win the lottery.”
Sisters Denise Pianforte and Heather Richards received a new roof on their Port Jefferson Station home as part of Port Jefferson Station-based A-1 Roofing & Siding’s partnership with the No Roof Left Behind project. Photo from A-1 Roofing & Siding
She did not win the lottery, but she did win the new roof. A-1 Roofing & Siding, a family owned and operated contractor in Port Jefferson Station, installed it Feb. 6.
Maria Malizia and her three brothers, who took over running the business after their father retired, became involved in the national No Roof Left Behind program last year.
No Roof Left Behind provides contractors with the necessary tools and resources to construct a free roof for a local family in need. The program was founded in 2009 by Jay and Dena Elie, the owners of a Detroit roofing firm called Ridgecon Construction.
Malizia said that they were immediately interested in the opportunity to help deserving families in Suffolk County.
“We’ve been in the community for decades and were just happy that we were finally able to give back a little,” Malizia said. “When we heard about the program, we said to ourselves, how could we not do this.”
After helping Denise Pianforte and Heather Richards, Malizia said the immediate gratification let them know they needed to continue their involvement with No Roof Left Behind.
“They were really grateful, excited and relieved that they were safe under a new roof and didn’t have to worry about any leaks in the future,” Maria Malizia said.
Councilwoman Valerie Cartright (D-Port Jefferson Station) said No Roof Left Behind is providing the community an important service.
“We are fortunate to live in an area such as Port Jefferson Station where residents and local businesses strongly believe in giving back to their community,” Cartright said. “I am sure the program will have a tremendously positive impact on the lives of the 2017 winners and I commend A1 Roofing for their sponsorship of the program.”
A-1 Roofing & Siding is a family owned and operated contractor in Port Jefferson Station. Photo from A-1 Roofing & Siding
The importance of community support is not lost on the organization.
“This is a nice way for contractors to engage the community and let them know they’re one of the good guys,” said Dena Elie, who is a member development director for the program. “No Roof Left Behind helps the community to recognize you as a shareholder there, and someone who genuinely cares and wants to support you locally.”
More than 247 roofs have been installed by 60 contractors in more than 27 states and provinces since the program’s founding.
As a participating contractor, A-1 Roofing pays an annual subscription fee to join No Roof Left Behind. That gives it access to the outreach and promotional materials Elie created, and designates the firm as the sole participating contractor in Suffolk County. It is one of two in New York — the other, Marshall Exteriors, is located in Newark.
Nominations for this year’s recipient, are open until Oct. 31 for a local family deserving of a new roof. Malizia said community members are invited to submit photos and a brief paragraph to the local No Roof Left Behind website.
Then, the roofing contractor will narrow the list down to four finalists. Malizia said A-1 considers whose roof is least able to survive the winter months. When the finalists are revealed, residents can vote from Nov. 14 to Dec. 16 for the winner, who will be announced on Dec. 23.
A-1 Roofing & Siding is a family owned and operated contractor in Port Jefferson Station. Photo from A-1 Roofing & Siding
Currently, there are four nominees — two from Sound Beach, one from Amityville and the other Nesconset.
The day the new roof is installed is usually a huge celebration, Elie said. She encourages contractors to bring members of the community to meet the winning family. A-1 has not yet set a date for the installation, but it will be using materials donated by General Aniline & Film (GAF) and delivered to the home by Allied Building Products, both national No Roof Left Behind sponsors.
“Roofing contractors are a group of big-hearted fellows,” Elie said. “They grow to care for the folks they’ve put roofs on for, and I think one of the most rewarding things to see is a sense of community develop.”
Malizia said her family is looking forward to helping more Suffolk County families.
“We all know how difficult it is to survive when you don’t have a safe roof — it’s a constant worry,” she said. “We’re going to keep participating as long as we’re able.”
A scene from the Heritage County Fair hosted by the Smithtown Historical Society this past Sunday, Sept. 18. Photo by Victoria Espinoza
A scene from the Heritage County Fair hosted by the Smithtown Historical Society this past Sunday, Sept. 18. Photo by Victoria Espinoza
Scenes from the Heritage County Fair hosted by the Smithtown Historical Society this past Sunday, Sept. 18. Photo by Victoria Espinoza
Scenes from the Heritage County Fair hosted by the Smithtown Historical Society this past Sunday, Sept. 18. Photo by Victoria Espinoza
A scene from the Heritage County Fair hosted by the Smithtown Historical Society this past Sunday, Sept. 18. Photo by Victoria Espinoza
A scene from the Heritage County Fair hosted by the Smithtown Historical Society this past Sunday, Sept. 18. Photo by Victoria Espinoza
A scene from the Heritage County Fair hosted by the Smithtown Historical Society this past Sunday, Sept. 18. Photo by Victoria Espinoza
A scene from the Heritage County Fair hosted by the Smithtown Historical Society this past Sunday, Sept. 18. Photo by Victoria Espinoza
A scene from the Heritage County Fair hosted by the Smithtown Historical Society this past Sunday, Sept. 18. Photo by Victoria Espinoza
A scene from the Heritage County Fair hosted by the Smithtown Historical Society this past Sunday, Sept. 18. Photo by Victoria Espinoza
A scene from the Heritage County Fair hosted by the Smithtown Historical Society this past Sunday, Sept. 18. Photo by Victoria Espinoza
On Sunday, Sept. 18th, the Smithtown Historical Society hosted its annual Heritage Country Fair, keeping up with its long-standing tradition of carrying the past to the present. The Fair entertained an assortment of appealing attractions, such as Antique Cars, Barn Animals, Children’s Craft, Civil War Soldiers, Hay Rides, Old Time Base Ball, Pony Rides, Live Music, Food, and much more. Demonstrations included the Island Long Riders, with mounted cowboy shooting as well as woodworking, spinning, quilting and ethnic folk dancing.
Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls at this point in the election cycle hardly guarantees victory. Image by Mike Sheinkopf
By Helmut Norpoth
Labor Day marks the unofficial end of summer and, in presidential election years, the traditional beginning of the general election campaign. At this juncture Nate Silver’s popular website, FiveThirtyEight, has all but anointed Democrat Hillary Clinton as the inevitable winner over Republican Donald Trump in November. The 538 forecast based on an aggregation of polls gives Clinton a 70 percent chance, give or take a point, to defeat Trump. It is a victory not only in the popular vote but also in the Electoral College. The polling averages produced by RealClearPolitics and The Huffington Post agree. They all have shown a Clinton lead for months, punctured only briefly when Trump clinched the GOP nomination in primaries or won it at the Republican National Convention. Polls are shining a bright light on Clinton’s prospects while casting a dark shadow on Trump’s. So it seems. How serious should we take these poll-driven forecasts?
By now we have lived with scientific polls in American presidential elections for 80 years. It started in 1936, when George Gallup conducted the first poll of a representative sample of American voters. For the record, he got it right that year. Few readers may be old enough to remember. Franklin Roosevelt was running in 1936 against … quick, who was the Republican opponent? OK, it was Alf Landon of Kansas. FDR led him in every poll conducted by Gallup and won in one of the biggest landslides — a great start. Gallup would not always be so lucky. In 1948, his polling consistently showed Republican Tom Dewey defeating Democrat Harry Truman, the incumbent president, who wound up with the victory on Election Day.
Back to Labor Day. At this point during the 2008 election cycle, Republican John McCain was ahead of Democrat Barack Obama 49 percent to 44 percent in the Gallup poll. Many probably don’t remember it. McCain’s lead was famously trumpeted as a “game change,” triggered by his choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate. The strong showing of the GOP ticket in the polls raised the hopes of the McCain camp for a victory in the November, while unnerving the Obama camp. Then the economy took a sudden nosedive as Lehman Brothers collapsed and Wall Street crashed. As the candidate of the White House party, on whose watch this calamity occurred, McCain saw his fortunes tank in the polls. It also did not help that Palin, his vice-presidential candidate, came across as clueless and tongue-tied on television in interviews with Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric. So, real-life events unfavorable to the White House party and missteps in the election campaign combined to reverse a lead in the polls that one side, McCain in this case, enjoyed at the beginning of the general election campaign. Lesson: Beware of pollsters bearing election forecasts eight weeks before Election Day.
Helmut Norpoth is a political science professor at Stony Brook University and has designed models to forecast elections in the U.S. and abroad. He will be contributing ongoing election analysis ahead of the 2016 election.
Prev
